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– Weren’t our politicians and leading state figures too involved in the role of Belarusian guardians? – “Respublika” asked Member of the Seimas Povilas URBŠIS.
– At the moment, we ignore important factors that can determine the development of the Belarusian state and relations with us. We are very active advocates of democratic change in Belarus, but we have certainly become too involved in the role of Belarusian patrons and teachers.
We must not create opposition to the requests: respect the sovereignty of Belarus. We must not ignore the opinion formed by the propagandists of Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin that the unrest in Belarus is inspired by hostile forces from the West who want to use the internal conflict to carry out NATO military aggression.
We cannot ignore the fact that the majority of Belarusian society is pro-Russian. The Russian mentality is closer to it than the Lithuanian. When we ignore this reality, our activism only increases the influence of the Kremlin both in Lukashenko and in the opposition.
– Some say it is our common history and that is why we should support the Belarusians shoulder to shoulder.
– In addition to the prevailing pro-Russian mood in Belarus, we must pay attention to the fact that the awakening of this nation is taking place with a flag in which Vytis boasts. At this stage, both we and Belarusians declare it as a symbol of solidarity. However, we must not forget that Belarusians build their national identity on the basis of the history of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. Considering themselves the creators and inspirers of this Principality. And perhaps not by chance, after the waves of national revival of the 1990s in the collapsing Soviet Union, the first independent President of Belarus, Stanislav Shushkevich, named Minsk and Vilnius as the capitals of Belarus. And he was in no rush to sign an agreement on the recognition of state borders with Lithuania.
When it comes to the growing national resurgence of Belarusians today, we cannot ignore the fact that Belarusians continue to build their national identity at the expense of our historical identity. I believe that in the future, this can be used not to bring our peoples closer, but to confront them.
– When the Seimas passed a resolution on rigged elections, it refrained from moving with Vytautas Baku. Why?
– Obviously, the West is not interested in the conflict in this part of Europe. They don’t need another showdown with Putin. The highly anticipated European Council meeting confirms this. After a contractual swing that the presidential election in Belarus was conducted with irregularities, he limited himself to considering imposing sanctions on Lukashenko’s accomplices, without touching the dictator himself. When Putin and Lukashenko started using weapons, the US ambassador, Sviatlan Cichanouskaya, bluntly said that they would not interfere in the internal affairs of Belarus. This shows that our desire to assume the position of regional leader on this issue is failing. And I think it’s because our foreign policy strategists are trying to look more like, rather than being, leaders with a strong backbone.
The Seimas passed a resolution declaring the presidential elections in Belarus rigged. In practice, Lukashenko declared a “Cold War”. But at the same time, he rejected our proposal, registered in Vytautas Baku, to consider in the European Council the possibility of launching an independent international investigation into the crimes committed by A. Lukashenko and his clique. This initiative of ours died out in its most brutal form. Motivate that there is no need to unnecessarily annoy the European powers.
Thus, on the one hand, we declare Lukashenko an illegal impersonation, but at the same time we do not want to initiate criminal proceedings against him and his accomplices. Such inconsistency will only contribute to the frustration of the opposition in the West and will encourage Mr. Lukashenko to continue his violence against his people.
I think seeking an independent international legal assessment would be very inconvenient for Putin himself, as he would not want to set an international legal precedent that could turn against him in the future for the crimes he committed. This would force him to take a clear position in favor of Lukashenko, which would help dissuade the Belarusian opposition from the influence of the Kremlin.
– Looking more closely, it becomes obvious that the situation in Belarus, some parties are trying to take advantage of the collection points for the next Seimas elections …
– Undoubtedly, these circumstances give rise to a certain pose in the context of the problems of Belarus and a certain emotional rhetoric in our foreign policy. It only gives the impression that such an emotional state from our foreign policy strategists is favorable to Putin, who is currently pursuing a well-thought-out policy towards Belarus and the West.
Obviously, the strategy and tactics chosen for our foreign policy towards Belarus are largely determined by subjective factors in our domestic policy. Politicians who are actively involved in the Belarus issue, who are actively participating in the Belarusian elections, are trying to show their political pens and raise their ratings as clearly as possible. Here, the first violin is played by the strict “social workers” with Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius at the helm and the conservatives with the vanguard of Žygimantas Pavilionis. And for President Gitan Nauseda, the issue of Belarus became a good opportunity to correct the image of his head of state, which deteriorated during the coronavirus.
Putin, who plays a double game with Lukashenko and his opposition, wants to appear like a dove of peace to them. At the same time, it is fueling tensions in and around Belarus. Taking advantage of the West kneeling against him, Putin is strengthening his influence not only in Belarus, but consolidating his leadership in this geopolitical game in which our leaders are gradually becoming sliding chips.
– Lukashnek’s demonstrative distraction with Kalashnikov made many people laugh. But how serious can your gun rape really be? Our Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense asks not to pay too much attention to this …
– Since the restoration of independence, we have never been so close to a military conflict with Belarus. Jokingly, we are trying to let Lukashenko run with a machine gun through Minsk, but the fact is that the Belarusian army has declared that it has the maximum preparation for combat. He is even preparing to announce a partial mobilization. The military units are attached to the border with Lithuania. A large-scale military exercise was launched in Kaliningrad without notice by units of the Russian Baltic Fleet and Ground Forces.
There is reason to believe that the Belarusian army, which has been activated these days, has become highly dependent on the instructions of the leaders of Russia’s Western Military District.
The urgent visit of the US Undersecretary of State to Vilnius and then to Moscow shows that the West takes the emerging military threat much more seriously than we do. No one can guarantee that Putin, taking advantage of Lukashenko’s instability, can decide to provoke a local military conflict if he sees that Belarus is starting to get out of his mouth. The pretext for him is ideal. I am not saying that we should tremble, but the artificial claim to power is not serious here, it is not fair to the Lithuanian people. It’s already starting to look like a dangerous adventure. Perhaps that is why after his visit to the US official, His Excellency G. Nausėda and others were silent.
The Lithuanian nation has repeatedly shown that it can take responsibility for the freedom of Lithuania. However, it would be inexcusable if their determination to sacrifice were taken advantage of by the government’s shortsighted ambitions to appear as leaders at all costs. We must not forget that we have the longest land border with Belarus – 679 km, and only 34 km from Belarus to Vilnius. If, after these riots, Belarus becomes more dependent on Russia, with or without Lukashenko, it will be Putin’s victory, but not ours. I wonder who will be responsible for this?
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