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According to political scientist Vaidas Augūnas, looking at the situation in the regions of Belarus shows that protests are decreasing.
“The police apparatus has remained loyal to the head of state, if he can be called that, and has suffered very serious repressions. In principle, all the people who were the engines of the protests were captured in the regions, the main organizers were sitting down, the activists were fined 2-3 months’ salary and some fled abroad. It has already been lost in the regions, “says my political scientist.
Meanwhile, the ambassador, advisor to the strategic planning group Jovita Neliupšienė, believes that the people still have the initiative in their hands.
“Now we see a completely different situation, not only of the young, the women who have taken to the streets, but also of the unions, the workers and the elderly. “The dissatisfaction of the people with the situation in the country and the results of the elections has not changed, the people simply have not been able to agree on a new election and a more democratic process,” he says.
Prepare a retirement scenario
Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Ambassador Vygaudas Ušackas, notes that the situation is moving towards Lukashenko’s withdrawal. This, according to V. Ušackas, can be seen in his statements that he “sat down”: “Obviously, Lukashenko has lost legitimacy in the eyes of many people, but he keeps the levers of power in his hands. I think the Kremlin sees Lukashenko becoming awkward and illegitimate. “
During the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko on Monday, V. Ušackas believes that issues related not only to the political situation, but also to debts to Russia, the price of gas, etc. will be discussed, and a transformation scenario of power.
“Russia is different from the EU and the US. Neither the EU nor the US have a strategy and that is the biggest problem. Russia has a clear interest: integration so that there is no other anti-Russian republic in the former Soviet Union. “, Explain.
“A stage will be set for a year and a half and two, and Lukashenko will have a ‘pillow’. I think he and his family members already fully understand that he is in the process of an exit strategy, ”adds V. Ušackas.
Vygaudas Ušackas
According to V. Augūnas, A. Lukashenko will not retire until at least 2022: “I think the conversation with V. Putin will determine a lot, probably some intermediate transition will be decided in 2022. Now it will not really back down, it would be a very big slap. Especially before. of the Russian municipal elections. It would show that protests can topple power. After that, it seems to change the constitutional structure a bit, leaving it in power within certain limits and involving more actors. “
Several things are important for Lithuania
According to V. Ušackas, neither Lithuania nor the EU had a clear strategy on how to behave with Belarus, so far the processes within the country have been little analyzed. Now, according to him, several things are important for Lithuania.
“It is important to us that Lukashenko is not recognized as president after November 5. The second is to introduce a follow-up mission. Third, to talk to Putin that they cannot violate the sovereignty of Belarus and that, if one takes any measure, sanctions will be imposed ”, emphasizes Ušackas.
Political scientist V. Augūnas also agrees that there is no clear strategy.
“We were initially glad that the EU reacted faster than Ukraine, but so far it is unlikely that sanctions are possible even for key officials. What’s more, does Lithuania have a strategy? Not to recognize CIchanouskaya, but what will we do to make it happen? take a real form? It will be a great challenge, “he is convinced.
Lithuania’s ambassador to the EU, J. Neliupšienė, emphasizes that the West said the elections were illegal and illegitimate, but its strategy will always be different from that followed by Russia.
Jovita Neliupšienė
“Yes, [ES] He did not have a strategy to impose his power, but we are talking about completely different actors. The EU will never have a strategy to impose power, ”he explains.
“It just came to our attention then. If we think about the long departure of Lukšenko, it will definitely be very painful, with the arrest of people, the victims. I think we have to try to avoid that,” he says on Delfi Day.
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