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The news portal tv3.lt reviews the possible results of the second electoral round and how many seats can be added to the account of possible coalitions.
73 members of the Seimas were elected during the first round of elections. Achieved the best result on Sunday Lithuanian Christian National-Democratic Union (TS-LKD). The Conservatives collected 24.8 percent in the multi-member. votes and received 23 mandates. Another term for the Conservatives was secured by TS-LKD candidate for Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, who won the first round of Antakalnis a member.
Secondly – Union of Greens and Peasants of Lithuania (LVŽS). The current rulers received 17.5 percent. votes and received 16 seats.
Third best result recorded Party work. The political force led by Viktor Uspaskich received 9.47 percent. voter support and secured 9 mandates.
Fourth – Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP). The Social Democrats collected 9.26 percent. votes and have in your account 8 mandates.
Fifth, we find the “younger” parliamentary force: Freedom Party. The party formed last year collected 9.02 percent. voters and received 8 mandates.
The last party to cross the Seimas electoral poster was Liberal Movement of the Republic of Lithuania (LRLS). The political force led by Victoria Čmilytė-Nielsen received 6.79 percent. voter votes and 6 mandates.
In the first round of the elections, in addition to I. Šimonytė, the representatives of the Lithuanian Polish Electoral Action Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS) – Česlavas Olševskis – celebrated the victory in the Medininkai constituency, and Beata Petkevič – in Šalčininkai.
The six parties that joined the Seimas are clearly attributed to one political leadership or another. Peasants, Social Democrats and workers position themselves in the center-left, the conservatives, the Freedom Party and the liberals in the center-right.
If the parties, without reservations, participate in the coalitions formed by the parties of their political leadership, even if they are insignificant, those of the right continue to have an advantage after the first round.
The Conservatives, the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement together have 37 seats.
The Peasants, the Labor Party and the Social Democrats have 33 elected members of the Seimas. If we add the two LLRA-KŠS representatives elected in the first round, who formed a coalition with the peasants during this legislature, the difference between the two possible coalitions melts up to 2 seats in parliament.
There are 141 members of the Seimas in the Seimas, so to have a fragile but majority, at least 71 seats must be secured.
As for the second round of the elections, there are electoral districts in which, as is clear, which coalition would choose the winning candidate. Candidates from the Conservatives, the Freedom Party, or the Liberal Movement will meet in 18 constituencies. Therefore, the possible center-right coalition in the new Seimas has already won at least 55 seats.
In the center-left coalition, things seem more pessimistic so far: only peasants, social democrats or workers will meet in 5 constituencies, so these potential rulers currently have 40 seats on their accounts.
Let’s look at optimistic scenarios. If the candidates of the TS-LKD, the Freedom Party or the Liberal Movement, that is, the candidates of these parties, win in all the constituencies in which the second round participates, this coalition would have up to 93 seats.
If the potential shapers of the center-left coalition – the LVS, the Labor Party and the LSDP – won in all constituencies, such a coalition would have 77 seats on its account.
It is also possible to add Rita Tamašunienė, candidate of the Polish electoral campaign, who belongs to the current peasant-led ruling coalition, and Darius Kaminskas, who entered the second round of elections in Kėdainiai and belongs to the peasant faction, and not he was neither a peasant nor a worker candidate.
Algirdas Butkevičius could join this coalition. The former prime minister will compete with the peasant Kęstutis Smirnovs in the second round of the elections. If A. Butkevičius, R. Tamašunienė and D. Kaminskas joined the coalition, the center-left coalition in the Seimas would have 80 votes.
2016 the outcome of the elections was largely determined by the victories of the peasants against the conservatives in the second round of the elections. This year, the fate of the 23 seats will be decided in the LVŽS and TS-LKD candidate duel.
The question is about various single-member politicians in which politicians who do not belong to any party elected to the Seimas fight. If the gap between the two possible coalitions is very small, one or more members of a single member on one or the other axis can weigh which side will be in position and which will be in opposition.
Domas Griškevičius, an advisor to the mayor of Šiauliai, which he obtained himself, received the most votes in the first round of elections in the Saulė constituency. In the second round, he will have to face Valery Simulik, backed by the peasants.
D. Griškevičius previously belonged to the Social Democrats, but later withdrew from the party and participated in municipal elections with the movement of Sun City Mayor Artūras Visockas.
In Gargždai, victory can be picked up by a long-time member of Seimas Petras Gražulis. The Seimas MP often speaks harshly against conservatives and is also famous for his homophobic views, so it would be naive to expect P. Gražulis to join the TS-LKD, the Freedom Party and the liberal coalition. Still, he does not know if elected to the Seimas, P. Gražulis would promise his vote to the left.
Algirdas Bacevičius, representative of the Center’s nationalist party, will participate in the second round in the single-member constituency of Telšiai. Although the party leader Naglis Puteikis supported the peasants during this period, A. Bacevičius would not necessarily do that.
In the electoral district of Kelmė-Šilalė, the president of the Freedom and Justice Party, Remigijus Žemaitaitis, may become the sole representative of his political force in the Seimas. The politician was a member of the ruling party for the previous term, served as vice president of the Seimas, but later resigned.
However, the party led by R. Žemaitaitis presented itself as liberal, so in case of victory, the decision of this politician can be one of the decisive factors that will weigh the balance of the coalition in one direction or another.
Valdemaras Valkiūnas, a businessman and former mayor of Biržai, may win a mandate in the western part of Sėla. The politician belonged to the Social Democrats, but was expelled from this party. V. Valkiūnas should not join the center-right coalition, as he is famous for his xenophobic speeches and Eurosceptic views.
The second round of the parliamentary elections will take place on October 25.
For comments from TS-LKD of the House of Lords, see:
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