NATO invasion of Kaliningrad: a fictional scenario in Russia has sparked real hysteria

“The scene of the NATO pre-emptive strike in the Kaliningrad region has been named,” those headlines began circulating on Kremlin-controlled media channels RIA Novosti and Izvestia in late January.

It already sounded serious, but not sensational enough, so other Kremlin spokesmen decided not to be left behind. Gazeta.ru has published two articles in a row: “American experts have revealed NATO’s plan to attack Kaliningrad” and “Four targets: what NATO plans to destroy in Kaliningrad”, emphasizing that it was American experts who had developed a scenario for a prevention NATO strike in Kaliningrad.

And the tabloid-minded Life.ru, which has ties to the Kremlin’s security structures, did not collapse or elevate the poster, announcing that “the US military has outlined the plan to occupy Kaliningrad,” NATO forces said, in which Poland play a key role.

In fact, no US or NATO military or expert has publicly debated anything like the alleged scenarios of the Kaliningrad attack, much less the occupation.

It was based on fantasy and real research.

It all started with a humble post on a private blog in English, where Wojciech L left his strange reflections. It was the latter’s article “The Kaliningrad Gambit: NATO Preventive Strike Scenario” that formally caught the attention of the Russian media and sparked the imagination. The article, posted on the “Overt Defense” blog edited by British historian and weapons enthusiast Matthew Moss, is not an official NATO or US military website, not even an analytical hub. That is not what it pretends to be.

Founded a few years ago, it is aimed at a broad audience interested in military and defense issues, with approximately three publications a day, five days a week, most of them short: 300-400 word articles based on official announcements. .

“The writers are mostly advocacy journalists or those who work for more well-known publications,” said Moss, who also notes that longer author articles can be found on his blog. This is Wojciech L’s record of the alleged Kaliningrad neutralization scenario. There is no shortage of rarities and information collected by real researchers.

For example, Kaliningrad is listed in the Wojciech L registry as an alternative name that is rarely found today: Korolevets. This is one of the initial variants of how the Soviets, who occupied East Prussia, considered renaming Kionigsberg in 1946, until they finally decided to honor one of its leaders, Mikhail Kalinin, who had died that year.

Wojciech L’s recording continues to provide interesting information about the Kaliningrad region, emphasizing that this enclave is not just a “liberal part of Russia”, many of which are inhabited by 500,000 people. it is said that the population works or makes purchases in Poland ”, but also a militarized zone with 50,000 employees. Iskander, a Russian ballistic missile capable of “striking nuclear forces against NATO forces in East Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic.”

This information in Wojciech L’s recording is based on last year’s review of the Konrad Music Western Military District in Russia, which is published on the US-based Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) website. This detailed review also collects information from various sources on the Russian forces deployed in Kaliningrad and their development prospects.

Russia has prioritized the development of forces in the Western Military District, as it considers the threats emanating from the West to be the most serious. This article of mine looks at these forces and their role in combat operations against various threats. https://t.co/oVs6MomXQU pic.twitter.com/DyXNh5eF6W

– Konrad Muzyka – Rochan Consulting (@konrad_muzyka) December 17, 2020

K. Muzyka is an expert at the Rochan Consulting research center in Poland. An expert who worked as an analyst at the famous British publisher Jane’s from 2012 to 2019, he specializes in the Armed Forces of Russia and Belarus, analyzing their actions and opportunities.

In her latest study, presented at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) in Estonia, Ms Muzyka analyzed Russia’s intentions regarding a possible military aggression against, in the Kremlin’s view, the “near foreigner” of the Baltic states. .

However, the analysis provided by the CNA does not write about “50 thousand. troops in Kaliningrad, and even more so for their neutralization during the offensive operation.

At the time, Wojciech L’s track record specifically addresses four objectives in this scenario: the neutralization of Iskander and the removal of Russia’s ability to conduct tactical nuclear strikes, the crushing of the Baltic port and Russia’s Baltic fleet, A2 / AD of Russia (access and regional blockade measures) anti access / area denial, A2 / AD), in particular the destruction of the S-400 anti-aircraft defense systems and the destruction of the Russian forces in Kaliningrad, thus protecting the Baltic States and the Suwalki corridor.

Next, the author describes the ways to achieve these goals: what tools to use and how to use them. Furthermore, it is based not only on its own deliberations, but also on other official investigations and military simulations.

For example, reference is made to an April 2019 article by James Lacey, a professor at the US Naval Military College, on military simulations in which team members had to deal with the aftermath of three simultaneous military crises in Korea, Taiwan and Eastern Europe. .

Paradoxically, the simulated conventional conflict between NATO and Russia reached a turning point where two fateful battles took place in the history of the region, not far from the Grunwald camp in present-day Poland.

Here, according to a simulation scenario, a three-day massacre took place between American and Allied forces on the one hand and Russia on the other, during which the Russian offensive operation was halted.

The objectives of the conflict are unclear

However, Wojciech L’s recording highlights a scenario with a very vague sequence of causes and consequences, in which Poland is the aggressor whose forces attack Kaliningrad “during the conflict” and then withdraw from it. It is not specified what and why causes the conflict, according to the author.

Neither the objectives of such a Polish attack nor the operation itself provide an effective and credible Russian response, from conventional strikes to nuclear strikes, especially from deep within Russia, given that the Kaliningrad military group is only a small part. From Russia. the entire western military district. Wojciech L’s track record seems like an attempt to show that the Polish forces are capable of dealing a devastating blow to the forces in Kaliningrad, as if they are isolated from the rest of Russia, which cannot react in any way.

Furthermore, the conflict scenario itself is based on a very strange and even absurd justification that the “elimination of the Kaliningrad military group” allows the protection of the Baltic States and significantly strengthens the defense attributes of the eastern wing of NATO ” , whatever that means.

“Whether it is worth the risk depends on other factors, but any action to weaken the Russian army in the first days of any conflict would be important for a future war in Central Europe,” said Wojciech L. It is inexplicable what it is during the war. , why it is needed and why it arises in Central Europe, it is only noted that such a scenario is “unlikely” today.

A provocation of a fictional character?

However, it was not by chance that these reflections on the war, and in particular the Polish operation in Kaliningrad, attracted the attention of the Russian media. And not just the media. Kaliningrad
Dmitry Lyskov, a spokesman for the region, has already reacted to the idea of ​​an alleged pre-emptive NATO strike in Kaliningrad.

“Dozens of institutes and experts are creating similar fantastic scenarios,” a representative from Kaliningrad gave legitimacy and weight to Wojciech L’s thoughts, adding: “Tourist flows in Kaliningrad are growing every year.” It is better to stop considering invasion plans and think about creating tourist routes in the region. “

Most interestingly, Wojciech L became not only a full Overt Defense blog in the Russian media, but also relied on Kremlin propaganda speakers to write about “the American experts who created the NATO preemptive strike. “according to an analyst at the US-based CNA. Scenario for Kaliningrad ”, although there was nothing like it.

K. Muzyka was not only surprised by the ingenuity of the Russian media, but also drew attention to Wojciech L, whose thoughts ignited a party of loud headlines. The fact that the author of Overt Defense, who has written dozens of articles, comes forward with just one nameless name is already telling. He is not an expert, analyst or more military than the United States or NATO.

And although this has not been noticed in the Russian media, Wojciech L.’s Open Defense presents himself as “President of the Association of Humanitarian Law Students of the Jagiellonian University in Krakow”. It is true that it turned out that there is no such association and no such President Wojciech at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow. This was confirmed by K. Muzyka from Poland, who admitted that he had not been able to find either that person or the association he allegedly represented.

“Something really strange here,” admitted K. Muzyka. In recent years, there has been a dearth of disinformation attacks in Poland and the Baltic states, in which unidentified individuals posing as experts, military, representatives of the state or organizations, journalists or concerned citizens have misled the public about fictional events, mainly related to military and defense issues in the Baltic Sea region.