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There has not been such a rapid escalation of military actions in Nagorno-Karabakh since April 2016. Suffice it to say that an unrecognized military situation has now been declared in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, which was not the case four years ago. So, the capital Stepanakert was also not shot, writes S. Markedonov.
According to the author, the latest events, however, are not entirely unexpected. After the escalation of the situation in July, when the clashes did not take place on the contact line, but some 300 km away, on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it was sensed that the military confrontation had simply been suspended.
VIDEO: The military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has flared up again in Nagorno-Karabakh
The “Karabakh pendulum”, when military escalation is being replaced by rounds of negotiations, does not appear to have happened this time. In contrast to the four-day war in April 2016, when the situation began to actively return to the diplomatic field on the fifth day, there was no return to diplomacy this summer.
According to the author, the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have not been resumed even on a symbolic level. The excuses for the coronavirus did not seem very convincing: In the same days, the pandemic did not stop Azeris and Armenians from other foreign contacts.
The current large-scale escalation has been driven by other factors. For example, the Turkish activity, writes S. Markedonov. Following the border clashes in July, Azerbaijan and Turkey conducted joint military exercises.
Turkish officials have started to actively speak out about the ineffectiveness of the peace process, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared in the United Nations General Assembly that Armenia is a major obstacle to lasting peace in the South Caucasus.
According to Markedonov, this does not mean that Turkey has caused a new escalation, but it has certainly contributed to a tougher position in Azerbaijan in the context of stalled negotiations.
Pokychiai Baku Diplomacy
The author notes that there have been important changes in the diplomatic line in Baku. After the escalation, Interior Minister Elmar Mamedjarov resigned in July. He was replaced by former Education Minister Ceyhun Bairamov, who does not have significant diplomatic experience.
However, what matters here is not the new appointments, but the departure of E. Medjarov, writes S.Markedonov. For the past two years, he has been highly optimistic about the concessions that the new Armenian Prime Minister, Nicolas Pasinyan, could make.
When the Armenian government changed during the 2018 revolution, Baku waited for Pashinian, who is not affiliated with Karabakh and is not at war with the “Karabakh clan” (if there is such a reality, a separate question). It was hoped that a new line could be found with N. Pasinian in an attempt to resolve the long-standing conflict.
However, N. Pasinian’s position on Nagorno-Karabakh is extremely strict. For example, he demanded the direct participation of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh in the negotiations and said that “Karabakh is Armenia.”
Scanpix / AP Photo / Nikolas Pašinianas
“Such actions could lead to nothing more than the strengthening of the falcon’s position in Baku. Following the July clashes at the border, Azerbaijan’s foreign policy has tightened.
Furthermore, the Azerbaijani side is categorically opposed the status quo, in which the loser feels. Baku has never ruled out trying to militarily address the issue of territorial integrity. ” carnegie.ru writes S. Markedonov.
Other scenarios
According to the author, there may be several additional scenarios. The most likely scenario is a fight over small and insignificant areas to symbolically declare a “victory” and create a favorable environment in society. However, such a strategy looks great only in theory.
In practice, when a conflict poster is raised, it is very difficult to stop where you want to go. The opponent may have a completely different opinion on this issue, and then a new phase of fighting is inevitable.
However, the possibility that escalation is part of the preparations for the negotiations cannot be ruled out, which is necessary to strengthen diplomatic positions by force and enter into a dialogue under intense pressure from the opponent.
In any case, one thing is clear: the importance of the force factor in the Karabakh settlement process increases every day.
“The deficit in the negotiations becomes critical. If the Karabakh pendulum does not swing from one military point to another diplomat in the near future (even with a possible return), it could fail. And then the resumption of another regional war will no longer be only one possible scenario pointed out by the experts. ” carnegie.ru writes S. Markedonov.
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