Nagorno-Karabakh is heating up again: how did the battles start this time?

As always, the Azerbaijani forces attacked drones, targeting the Armenian air defense systems in particular. According to them, a total of 12 “Osa” and “Tor” short-range self-propelled missile systems were destroyed. The video shows how Osa, who was half buried in the ground but not ready for battle, is destroyed.

It can be assumed that Bayraktar TB2 was attacked by the striking Turkish drones. After considering all the official reports, the opinion of experts from various countries, would consider confirmed the destruction of 3 Armenian “Osa” systems and 1 lost drone of the Azerbaijani forces. The information that Turkish drones operating over Turkey also carried out pro-Azerbaijani intelligence also appears reliable.

It would not decide which operators they control, Azerbaijanis or Turks, but Turkish President RT Erdogan spoke in full support of Azerbaijan. Russia, meanwhile, has not voiced support for Armenia, as many commentators have noted, but has called on both sides to end the fighting and to sit at the negotiating table. Nothing new is traditional Russian rhetoric in this long-running conflict.

Now about the war itself:

• The Azerbaijanis launched an attack with armored forces and quickly lost several tanks and several infantry fighting vehicles and armored transporters. The tanks of the Azerbaijani force and armored vehicles were padded with guided missiles (probably Russian Kornets) and detonated by mines (or guided cartridges). Traditionally, we’ve seen fire poles sprout from the hit T-72 tower and driver’s hatches; Due to failed design decisions, these Soviet tanks, although Azerbaijani tanks have been modernized by Israeli companies, are true brotherhood graves for tankers. However, according to reports from the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, the objective was achieved: occupying 7 villages to control the Armenians.

• The Armenians, unlike in the past, did not use tanks and artillery guns buried in the ground, as in previous conflicts they were particularly affected by Israeli suicide attack drones (which explode and destroy when they hit a target). Because such suicides are so costly, this time the Azerbaijanis use the aforementioned Turkish Bayraktar TB2, which fires targets with guided missiles in an attempt to stay out of the enemy’s defensive fire zone. Not everyone seems to be able to avoid that fire.
• Both sides used Smerč’s long-range rescue artillery systems. They didn’t seem to have done any more harm to each other. Despite Soviet and Russian propaganda, these systems still lack precision, unlike the American M270 and M142 MLRS, which also have guided missiles designed to strike with extreme precision.
• Both parties are extremely active in cyber attacks. It should be noted that even enemy media and the smallest sources of knowledge are being attacked.
• Both sides have been actively preparing for this conflict since about May, but the rhetoric and actions of the time as a means of preparing for a conflict of greater intensity, at least I could not appreciate, the mosaic clearly formed only now.
• I will not continue to assess the loss of life force, but, as I said, it is traditionally small, not typical of any other conflict. The Armenian Defense Ministry has announced the death of 200 Azerbaijani soldiers.
• As most observers unanimously point out, the exercise began immediately after the Caucasus-2020 personal and strategic leadership exercise in Russia. They were attended by a small contingent of Armenians, and Azerbaijanis participated only as observers. Some observers point out that Azerbaijan was mobilizing at that time and that the entire army is ready, but this is not very significant, as the scene of the war is very limited geographically and can only deploy a small part of the force. Meanwhile, any mobilization burns the budget as jet fuel, so Azerbaijan cannot afford a longer mobilization.

It is difficult to say if the conflict will escalate further and how far the warring states and their allies will go right now, the turning point may be today or in the next few days. However, I suppose the conflict will disappear soon. It is clear that today there will be a great commotion in international organizations and throughout the diplomatic corps, it has already been carried out on Sunday, but on Monday several official processes will begin.

I would very much like all international mechanisms to work faster: people burn and die in tanks and mountains.

Egidijus Papečkys he is an observer of geopolitics and war. The article is based on his opinion, posted on the author’s Facebook account.