[ad_1]
“It will be a sufficiently contrasting year as the first half of the year is likely to be full of challenges and economic growth will also be slightly postponed until spring-summer.” However, in the second half of the year, economic growth is likely to pick up momentum, “said economist Eltai.
However, Ž. Mauricas noted that Lithuania’s budget deficit may be the largest in the Baltic-Nordic countries next year.
Once again, the end of the year may cast another shadow, as the 2022 budget will have to be approved and the likelihood that Lithuania’s budget deficit will be one of the largest in the Baltic-Nordic region both last year and this year. year is growing, “he said.
According to Ž. Maurico, such a scenario is decisively influenced by the strict quarantine in Lithuania.
“Lithuania, compared to other countries in the region, applies stricter quarantine restrictions in the first half of this year and is likely to continue to do so: we are already talking about the fact that quarantine conditions will be released significantly only at the end of the Q1. This is likely to affect the budget deficit as well, it is likely to grow faster in Lithuania, “said economist Eltai.
“The increase in the deficit is also due to the fact that last year we had elections, the authorities were slightly released and more spending was allowed. Therefore, Lithuania’s deficit in the third quarter is the largest in the Baltic countries, ”he added.
Ž. Maurice emphasized that too long a quarantine could threaten a wave of emigration.
“Western European countries now have a more lenient quarantine. … We, as a small, open economy that is constantly threatened by emigration, can hardly afford to have a longer and stricter quarantine than many Western European countries. It would be nice to be one of the first to open up our economy, as was the case during the spring quarantine.
Therefore, every possible effort should be made to ensure that the pandemic is managed in a way other than quarantine by then, “he said, adding that” quarantine is not a management, it is a last resort when the situation it is no longer manageable. “
The prolonged lockdown would also promote the growth of the shadow economy in the country, Ž noted. Mauricas.
“Failure to end the quarantine in time would have other negative side effects, such as the growth of the shadow economy, as some sectors can get used to working in the shadows.” It is a public secret that a significant number of companies, especially the small ones in the regions, operate without taking into account the bans. And the bans themselves often last a period of time in which everyone mobilizes. Then we see that the further away, the more shade, the illegal activity increases, ”he said.
The economist said that “it would be good to have more clarity at this time and for the authorities to establish a deadline (quarantine – ELTA).”
“I think after the peak, after we extinguish most of the scrap, we already have to look to the future and a bigger picture,” he said.
However, Ž. Maurice said he believed the country should be able to avoid a third intense wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The situation is extremely uncertain, since the virus mutates and changes. But life has yet to happen, anyway. “It is more likely that we will no longer have the situation that we had at the end of December and in January,” he said.
“Lithuania will continue to be one of the countries that will suffer the least from the pandemic, if we don’t turn to mush, cut the branch we are sitting on and create negative side effects”, Ž. Mauricas.
The government did not decide on the relaxation of the quarantine this week on Wednesday, because new circumstances have been clarified in recent days, Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė said.
The quarantine in the country was extended until February 28.
No part of this publication may be reproduced without the written permission of ELTA.
[ad_2]
