Mauricas assessed the situation of the Lithuanian economy: who is the crisis for and who is not

“K” stands for who is the crisis and who is not, “he said in presenting the latest review of the Baltic economies on Monday.

Ž. Mauricas explained that the economic structure of Lithuania is very favorable for this crisis.

“The situation is likely not very dramatic this year, despite prolonged quarantine restrictions. Still, the challenge is growing when it comes to getting back into K form.

If in the spring of last year more or less all sectors experienced a recession, followed by a recovery. Then there was the V-shaped recession, now we have a K-shaped recovery.

The gap is huge. For example, between food and non-food companies, ”he said.

According to Luminor’s latest forecast, Lithuania’s gross domestic product will grow 1.8 percent in 2021 and 5.5 percent in 2022.

In autumn, the bank forecast that the Lithuanian economy would grow 4.4 percent in 2021 and 4.2 percent in 2022.

“The recovery is moving away,” he summarized. Mauricas.

The unemployment rate is also forecast to reach 9.2 percent in 2021 and 7.5 percent in 2022.

Salaries in the country should increase by 9.2 percent. In 2021 and 7.5 percent. In 2022. Projected inflation: 6 percent. In 2021 and 7 percent. In 2022.

Invest for inflation

Ž. Mauricas noted that the second quarter did not make much of an impression on the residential real estate market.

“Increasing work from home encourages people to choose more spacious homes. As a result, the demand for houses and land increased. Limited opportunities to spend money on other leisure services, restaurants, etc. allows people to invest more in real estate.

The third thing is that the expectation of possible inflation encourages you to look for how to invest that money. Real estate is one of the asset classes, ”he taught.

Ask that taxes not be increased

Ž. Maurice also said that the so-called “techzod” is taking place in the United States, when the population is migrating to the states less affected by the pandemic.

“This is a warning sign for Lithuania that, being a small and open economy, we must see that we are that point of attraction after the crisis.

So we need to show that we will not increase taxes, we will not even reduce them in any way after the crisis, because our fiscal position is strong, “he said.

In general, the economist pointed out that as long as the European Union appears to be the loser in the pandemic.

“The exit paths are different. The bad news is that Europe will lose out of this crisis, ”Ž said. Mauricas.