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The National Union (TS-LKD) received the most seats in the Seimas in the elections and won, but the mood of victory was not felt on the night of the elections. The situation in the country is complicated and the new government has a great responsibility.
The very result of the TS-LKD elections is as expected: around 50 seats in the Seimas, the exact number will become clear after counting the votes in Utena. The party dominated in three major cities, although four years ago it only won one term in Kaunas and Klaipeda. Of the 24 single-member constituencies in Vilnius, Kaunas and Klaipėda, non-TS-LKD candidates won only four this year. It is true that modest results have been obtained in the rest of Lithuania. TS-LKD candidates won only in seven counties outside of the top three cities. Up to nine party candidates did not retain the advantage they had after the first round.
Increasingly, the LRLS party is becoming a political force with significant political capital in the regions, although it has won a mandate in both Vilnius and Klaipeda.
The Liberal Movement, which had the fewest seats in the Seimas after the first round, won 7 seats in the second round (13 in total) and rose to 3-4 seats. There were also unpleasant surprises: the victory of the mayor of the Trakai district, Edita Rudelienė, was expected. However, the overall result of the election of this party is not surprising. Increasingly, the LRLS party is becoming a political force with significant political capital in the regions, although it has won a mandate in both Vilnius and Klaipeda. Perhaps this also shows a narrowing gap between cities and regions?
The fight for the Freedom Party (LP) in single-member districts has not been easy: with the exception of the “peasants” in 2016, non-parliamentary parties rarely achieve high results when voters choose between personalities. A party with 11 seats in the Seimas would be the smallest partner in a potential coalition. The chances of success were also reduced by the fact that all districts had to fight TS-LKD, and to many voters, the Conservatives probably seemed like a more moderate alternative.
Negotiations between the parties over power are unlikely to be very easy; There should be a lot of tension on both the program and the positions. The total number of seats won by both Liberal parties is double that of TS-LKD. However, they will want real influence in government: LRLS representatives even spoke about four ministries and the post of president of the Seimas Victoria Čmilyte-Nielsen at the same time, now the appetite has been reduced to three. Although it is quite common in Lithuania to entrust the functions of the president of the Seimas to the second most important partners of the coalition, in case of a large gap between the parties’ mandates, a different decision could be made. Both liberal parties appear to compete for the Ministries of Education, Science and Sports and the Ministry of Economy and Innovation.
The Freedom Party on election night put more emphasis on programmatic issues. Aušrinė Armonaitė would seek to legalize same-sex couples and decriminalize the possession of psychoactive substances without the purpose of distribution within the first hundred days after the elections. These provisions are unlikely to be acceptable to the more conservative wing of the TS-LKD, as well as to the three “agroliberals” who often supported the ruling mandate.
In Lithuania, it is quite common to entrust the functions of the president of the Seimas to the second largest coalition partners, but in the case of a large gap between the parties’ mandates, a different decision could be made.
Already on the night of the elections, Ingrida Šimonytė tried to anticipate the events on the air of the LRT and advocated that issues of value should not be included in the government’s agenda, but should be decided in the Seimas.
The context of the pandemic will be an additional pressure to reach an agreement earlier. It will be difficult for the public to understand the delay, especially if it is due to disagreements about publications rather than values. Therefore, conservatives may have to make concessions at their expense. Although they are the winners, the reliance on both liberal parties remains high. There is simply no satisfactory contingency plan at this time.
Perhaps the right in the Seimas can also expect the support of individual Seimas members: Algirdas Butkevičius (elected as a representative of the Lithuanian Green Party), Vytautas Bakas (elected as a self-appointed candidate and who promises to work in the Joint Group of Seimas members until at least the new year) or Domas Griškevičius (nominated himself). It is true that this support is often obtained at a very high price: the positions and experience of the chairmen of the Seimas committees show that it is not very reliable. Suffice it to recall the complicated relations of the “peasants” with Povilas Urbšis or Nagli Puteikis.
Therefore, the majority of the 74 members of the Seimas are likely to be quite fragile, but it is still difficult to expect the formation of an alternative power center. The LVŽS, LSDP and DP bloc, even after counting individual politicians from other parties or various self-proclaimed members of the Seimas, whose support could theoretically be expected, would probably peak at only 67 Seimas members.
The Lithuanian Union of Peasants and Greens (LVŽS) performed well in the second round. They doubled the number of seats to 32. Still, some trends are really nasty. The party was winless in Vilnius and Kaunas. The only place in Klaipeda was brought by the environmental activist Ligita Girskienė. Saulius Skvernelis and Aurelijus Veryga lost to the TS-LKD candidates by a wide margin. It is true that the regions achieved a good result. On election night, Ramūnas Karbauskis spoke about wanting to be a constructive opposition, vowing to form a shadow government, and even to provide alternative budget projects.
Most of the 74 members of the Seimas are likely to be quite fragile, but it is difficult to expect an alternative center of power to form.
So far, the LSDP has obtained five victories in the second round of the elections. The result was as expected. If, after counting, the number of seats in Utena goes to Gintautas Paluckas, the total number of seats will reach 14 and the Social Democrats will overtake the Liberal Movement. However, G. Paluck’s obvious nervousness on election night shows that the mood in the party is not the best and that the election of the LSDP president in the spring will be tense.
The European Parliament and the 2019 local elections had formed completely different expectations for the emergence of the LSDP this year. After the Seimas elections, one gets the impression that the attempt to programmatically tilt the LSDP line to the left has turned this party into a niche political force that is not yet quite capable of fighting for victory in the elections. . So the remaining six months before the election of the party chairman will be filled with discussions about whether to simply try to expand this niche or return to a pragmatic and less ideological politics.
If there was much talk about the success of the PD after the first round of the Seimas elections, now there is much less attention. This political force will have 10 seats in the Seimas, competing in only two single-member electoral districts. Even five “employees” participated in the second round of the unsuccessful Seimas elections in 2016. This was for a simple reason: several chaotic years after the last Seimas elections caused significant damage to the PD’s organizational system, many politicians influential ended their careers or elected other political forces. The DP’s main task for the next four years would be to strengthen the organization and seek out stronger personalities.
Matas Baltrukevičius is an Associate Analyst at the Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis.
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