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Every time A. Lukashenko, angry at Lithuania for something, pulls the same trump card out of his hat: intimidation that Belarus will leave the port of Klaipeda without its cargo.
In response to the sanctions imposed by the Baltic states on Monday, Lukashenko reiterated to him and 29 other regime members that he would consult with Russia on the diversion of Belarusian cargo transit from the Baltic states to Russian ports, writes BNS.
“Scanpix” / AP nuotr./Aliaksandras Lukašenka
“It just came to our notice then. We will just try to fix this problem economically. They say it will be more expensive for Belarus. Of course, it will be a bit useless for us. But we can agree on tariffs with the Russians, and they will still benefit from the volume. of our transshipment, “said Lukashenko, who was sanctioned by the Baltic states for manipulating the presidential elections and violence against peaceful protesters.
50 percent Russian discount was not attractive
We heard exactly the same rhetoric in 2012, when the EU, considering tightening economic sanctions on Belarus, spoke with Belarusian politicians about the huge losses Lithuanian companies would suffer if the Belarusian cargo were lost.
In 2018, on the website of the Belarusian presidency, the news about Lukashenko’s intentions to divert Belarusian cargo from the port of Klaipeda was repeated once again, this time in response to Lithuania’s initiatives against the construction of the nuclear power plant. of Astrava.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Astravo Nuclear Power Plant
However, neither in 2012 nor in 2018, Lukashenko did not comply with his statements aloud: Belarus’s threats to Lithuania to stop cargo transportation through the Klaipeda port were just empty intimidation, and Belarus’ cooperation with Lithuanian port intensified every year.
“Threats have always been and have been, but until now they have not been carried out – all kinds of rumors are heard, but until now they are still rumors” – 15 minutes said Vaidotas Šileika, manager of the Klaipeda container terminal.
Photo by Julius Kalinskas / 15min / Vaidotas Šileika
The reason for the unfulfilled threats is simple: Belarus is the closest, most convenient and cheapest way to transport your cargo through the port of Klaipeda. So far, economic logic has overcome both the desire to “punish” Lithuania and the temptations of the Russian ports.
And although this time Lukashenko promises to negotiate favorable tariffs with the Russians, history shows that Belarus is not worth transporting its cargo through Russian ports even with 50 percent. discount.
According to the Belarusian portal tut.by, in 2017 Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed forcing Belarusian refineries to use Russian infrastructure to transport oil products. Russia offered 50 percent. Belarus did not want to change the port of Klaipeda for the ports of Ust-Lugo or St. Petersburg.
In the port of Klaipeda
Russia’s attempts to persuade the Belarusian cargo have been in the past, but they have also failed. In 2005, Belarus and Russia had decided to organize the transshipment of potash fertilizers through the port of Kaliningrad, but despite the famous statements, Belarus did not even send a test batch.
The share of Belarusian cargo in the port of Klaipeda only increased
Meanwhile, the share of Belarusian cargo in Klaipeda has only increased in recent years, and this year, after a hiatus of several years, tankers carrying oil cargoes to Belarus sailed one after another to the Lithuanian port.
Reuters / Scanpix photo / Captain of the US tanker NS with oil for Belarus in Klaipeda
When Belarus and Russia did not agree on oil imports, an alternative route was chosen: the transportation of oil shipments through Klaipeda. Lukashenko himself has set himself the goal of diversifying the oil supply and not being independent only from Russia.
According to data from the Klaipeda State Port Authority, in 2009 the port handled 6.62 million tons of cargo. tons of Belarusian cargo (24% of the total cargo), and in 2019 – double, 14.1 million tons. tons (30.5% of the total handling).
By the way, Belarus’s ties with the port of Klaipeda have also been strengthened in other areas: in 2013, the Belarusian fertilizer plant Belaruskalij acquired 30 percent. Shares of one of the largest port companies – Birių krovinių terminates them.
Therefore, both Belarus and Lithuania are very aware of the mutual benefits. As the President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nausėda pointed out, if Belarus still decided to avoid the port of Klaipeda, a new product would appear on the market due to rising costs: golden Belarusian fertilizers.
Photo by Julius Kalinskas / 15min / Gitanas Nausėda
Losses amounted to hundreds of millions
However, although the threats have never materialized, every time A. Lukashenko mentions the deprivation of Belarusian cargo from the Klaipeda port, the companies are not alarmed. Entrepreneurs fear potential losses and even urge politicians not to get angry with a neighbor.
“We must try to find diplomatic and political solutions. It is not always necessary to cut the roads, we have to find a way to work together.” 15 minutes Aloyzas Kuzmarskis, president of the Lithuanian Stevedoring Companies Association and chairman of the board of the port company Bega, spoke on this occasion.
Photo by Aurelija Kripaitė / 15min.lt/Aloyzas Kuzmarskis
Eight years ago, Lithuanian businessmen even gave specific figures of the losses that a company would lose if it lost the Belarusian cargo. In 2012, 11 million were handled. tons of Belarusian cargo.
A. Kuzmarskis, President of the Lithuanian Stevedoring Companies Association, then calculated that the losses could exceed 325 million. (later another 1 125 million LTL), and the director of Klaipėda Container Terminal V.Šileika spoke of 260 million euros. losses (900 million euros).
Photo by L. Sėlenienė / Opening of a fertilizer handling warehouse in the port of Klaipeda
Now both A.Kuzmarskis and V.Šilėnas, speaking with 15 minutes, He did not dare to predict, but stressed that the losses would be significant.
“I can only say that these numbers would not be like this today. This would affect Lithuanian railways, road transport, transport serving dock workers and the shipping line. If it decreases by 30-40 percent. The congestion from the port would lead to significant losses for both companies and lower taxes » 15 minutes said A. Kuzmarskis.
If it decreases by 30-40 percent. port congestion, there would be significant losses for both companies and less taxes would be collected, said A. Kuzmarskis.
V.Šileika also did not talk about specific numbers. “Much has changed since that year, and the volumes are different. It is difficult to predict and make expert evaluations in monetary terms. I fear there could be bigger losses,” V. Šileika also considered.
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