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No one was surprised when the Belarus Central Election Commission failed to register Lukashenko’s opponent, former Belgazprombank chief Viktor Babaryka, among the five presidential candidates.
The former head of the high-tech park, Valery Cepkala, also did not appear on this short list. Furthermore, Babaryka remains in detention, as do many other activists and bloggers that Amnesty International has recognized as prisoners of conscience.
Photo by Scanpix / ITAR-TASS / Viktor Babaryka
However, as A. Shraibman writes, the strangest thing in Belarus this week is not even that, but A. Lukashenko’s behavior before the elections to be held on August 9.
After all, he accuses his teachers, let’s be honest, of Moscow of interfering in the vote, but at the same time he is criticized by the European Union and the United States for putting behind supposed or real Russian buildings, of course, it’s V. Babaryka.
This means that Minsk could damage relations with Moscow and the West. And the times are such that the Belarusian economy needs support, and indeed a lot.
A good excuse?
What did Lukashenko say? He said, albeit without any evidence, that the opposition was being funded by Russian oligarchs. One of his opponents, V. Babaryka, was arrested; You are suspected of money laundering and tax evasion.
A senior Belarusian official said the banker’s campaign was funded by “his boss, Gazprom, and possibly even taller people.”
Lukashenko has also spoken of alleged interference in previous elections, not just in the West. Russia is accused for the first time.
Shraibman: If Russia is accused, the latest crackdown in Minsk sounds like the best excuse against the West.
The reasons, according to A. Šraibmanas, are two. In particular, Minsk has been embroiled in a slow and incense conflict with Moscow for several years, not with Brussels or Washington. Secondly, this time you will not call any of Lukashenko’s pro-western opponents, they just want to agree with Russia.
AFP / Photo by Scanpix / Protests in Belarus
Furthermore, if Russia is accused, the recent crackdown in Minsk sounds like the best excuse against the West.
European and American diplomats are told that Belarus must fight resolutely with Russia’s agents of influence; after all, the country’s independence has been based on the card, “writes A. Shraibman.
Will do everything to survive
According to the analyst, the problem is that such arguments are not convincing. Western diplomats working in Minsk are said to be aware that Belarusian society is not politicized from above, but from below.
Hundreds have been detained since late May during protests against the Lukashenko regime. The last round of arrests took place on Tuesday.
And Western diplomats and governments are neither willing nor able to turn a blind eye to the most brutal crackdown of the past decade simply because they are accompanied by anti-Russian rhetoric.
Washington and the EU capitals have already expressed their concern about the events in Minsk and demand the release of political prisoners. In other words, it is already clear that Belarus’ relations with the West will be complicated after the elections; how much is unknown.
There is no doubt that Lukashenko will do everything in his power to stay in power. When, after the election, it is inevitably announced that it has raised 80 percent. The Belarusians, who are so sullen, will probably not remain silent, with new protests and new repression.
Scanpix / AP Photo / Alexander Lukashenko
So far, it is difficult to say that the EU and the United States can return sanctions to Belarus. The West does not want to push Lukashenko towards Russia, although at this time it seems that the United States ambassador will not return to Minsk after an 11-year break.
Current cooperation with European banks is likely to stop, at least temporarily. The West will not completely separate Minsk: Belarusians, for example, will be helped to achieve greater energy independence from Russia.
But since the air is cold, it would be naive to expect Belarus to receive money from the International Monetary Fund and the EU.
Neither left nor right
“That is why Lukashenko sees no need to soften the tone and reassure Westerners. The survival of the regime is more important to him than invitations to meetings or loans from the EU’s Eastern Partnership, which would hardly be granted by all. modes, “notes A. Šraibmanas.
It seems as if after the elections, Lukashenko will have to attack Vladimir Putin’s embrace and fulfill all his wishes. But the analyst does not believe that it is possible, that the relationship between these leaders is stagnant.
Scanpix / ITAR-TASS Photo / Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin
According to Minsk, the current level of integration of the countries should guarantee Belarusian consumers the same conditions when buying oil or gas as the Russians. But Moscow says it would be a concession that should be earned by building a much closer union state.
Russia imposes many conditions on Belarusians on the general budget for oil and gas supply, which would like to unify tax systems. However, Minsk does not want to give up sovereignty, although the country’s economy really needs external support: oil prices have fallen and the recession has flared up due to the coronavirus.
Minsk will continue to see itself as a mediator between East and West, but now you can see that you disagree with neither side.
“In exchange for aid, Moscow wants too much, according to Minsk. For Lukashenko, sovereignty is everything, although it means the absolute power of his regime,” writes A. Shraibman.
And this means that the geopolitical identity of Belarus can change. Minsk will continue to see itself as a mediator between East and West, but now you can see that you disagree with neither side.
Yes, there is always China, which has many traces in Belarus. But Beijing’s attention is also obscured by the conditions Minsk fears, making it clear that it will have to balance wisely.
“It is difficult for small countries to intervene between two competing blocs. Minsk is unlikely to succeed, so Belarus could be caught in long years of geopolitical isolation and poverty.
But this period will last as long as the regime has enough resources to maintain one part of society that controls another “, warns A. Šraibmanas.
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