Lukashenko – a new test for the Kremlin: Putin is now making fun of him

And here, the pro-Russian leader of the Crimea, Sergei Aksionov, has already rushed to announce that he will be happy to wait on the Lukashenko Peninsula. He said he was convinced that the Belarusian president, who was not recognized by the international community in Crimea, “will feel at home.” At a meeting on cooperation with Russia in early June, Lukashenko promised that the parties would address the issue of opening flights to annexed Crimea.

In late June, the European Union formally imposed sanctions on important sectors of the Belarusian economy, increasing pressure on the regime of authoritarian President Lukashenko following the crash landing of a civilian liner in Minsk.

The new package of sanctions includes measures restricting Belarus’ ability to export potash fertilizers, petroleum products and tobacco products, the Community said in a statement. These economic sanctions are the most far-reaching sanctions ever imposed on Belarus.

Kruk Realii was discussed on air about whether Lukashenko could decide to visit Crimea in the current situation.

Igor Ilyash, a Belarusian journalist and political commentator at Belsat, said that Lukashenko could really accept Putin’s invitation to come to Crimea.

“In the past, Mr. Lukashenko has taken an ambiguous position on Crimea: on the one hand, Belarus has fully supported Russia’s position at the United Nations level. On the other hand, Belarus reserved the right to free interpretations – he did not call to Crimea “land longed for by Russia” and the like. In other words, some leeway has been left to send a message to the West: we are not supposedly seeking our policies to fully support the Kremlin, although we are allies, we remain independent in terms of foreign policy.

Belarus’s relations with the West are now as bad as ever, Mr. Lukashenko is in a position to escalate the conflict, so there is no point in maintaining this room for maneuver. A neutral position vis-à-vis Crimea and Donbass no longer offers any advantage, which is why, in my opinion, Mr Lukashenko is very close to being able to accept the Russian President’s proposal. That response would be an important signal for the Kremlin, ”explains Ilyas.

He notes that Lukashenko’s visit to Crimea would give him the opportunity to receive direct financial help from Moscow, rather than just promises of help in the event of Western sanctions.

According to Ilyash, in turn, the aspirations of Crimea should be evaluated not in terms of the attempt to legitimize the annexation of Crimea, but in terms of relations between Minsk and Moscow.

With this gesture, Lukashenko’s personal visit to Crimea, it is now important that Putin demonstratively force him to obey, to show that he is completely dependent on him. After all, during his visit to the peninsula, Lukashenko will basically abolish his entire foreign policy line in 2014-2020, which was based on demagoguery and a game of neutrality.

In the West, he will become the Kremlin’s puppet, a powerful blow to Lukashenko’s image. Therefore, Mr Lukashenko will try to postpone the decision on the visit, but in the current situation he will have no choice but to put pressure on Moscow. Another important element is the actions against Ukraine, with which Belarus’ relations have recently deteriorated dramatically.

Belarusian economist Siarhei Chaly notes that despite the relative leniency of Western sanctions against Belarus, the overall impact of these sanctions on the economy this year and next should be devastating.

According to the economist, Western sanctions remain relatively lenient: they fall short of “regime money,” the people Lukashenko has appointed to oversee certain areas of the economy. In principle, sectoral sanctions will only come into effect next year, in other words, existing agreements will be enforced.

The point is that until now nobody wants to draw the strongest cards, because they want to prepare for the eventual repression in Belarus. In the financial sector, one of the last western financing channels is closing, syndicate loans to Belarusian banks. Therefore, the combined effect of these restrictions will drive all economic growth from a low base last year to a recession this year. A significant drop in GDP is expected next year.

Chaly believes that the fears of many experts that the sanctions will leave the European Union with no choice but to force integration into Russia are long overdue.

“That narrative – supposedly don’t treat us like that because you’re pushing into Moscow’s arms – is very old. It was actively promoted by the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, and now foreign experts have said the same thing. You need to realize this. – It would be very difficult to push Lukashenko and the country even further into the Kremlin, because he has been there for many years, and the negotiations on the latest union documents are underway. After all, even without any sanction, immediately after the elections stolen, Lukashenko first rushed to Putin for help. So there is no need to push him anywhere anymore. As for the recognition of Crimea for Russia, expressed in an official visit, now it is not so important. It seems to me that even Russia itself no longer needs it now, but in 2014. It was really necessary. Since then, there has been no special pressure on Mr Lukashenko, precisely because of that the most important moment has passed. “It is possible that V. Putin is now making fun of Lukashenko in this general way,” said the economist.

Mr. Chaly concludes that Mr. Lukashenko will not accept Russia’s invitation to come to Crimea.

Maxim Khilko, director of the Russian-Belarusian Studies Program of the Ukrainian Prism of the Foreign Policy Council, envisions a final merger of the two countries.

According to him, without the support of Russia, Lukashenko would not be able to maintain power in Belarus, but Russia is only providing what is necessary to avoid a deep economic crisis in the country. In recent years, Lukashenko has received about $ 1.5 billion, almost all of which has returned to Russia: 500 million has been spent to pay for Russia’s energy resources and about a billion has been used to refinance debt. of Belarus with Russia. So it is not about economic development, but about banal survival: the Lukashenko regime seems to be in a state of stagnation, it is not allowed to completely collapse to achieve more and more concessions. In recent years, Belarus has been largely integrated into Russia’s foreign and propaganda policy. The signing of all integration documents will be the last stage of this integration, Khilko has no doubts.

Evaluating the case of the visit to Crimea, Mr. Khilko is confident that Mr. Lukashenko does not want to completely ruin relations with Ukraine, given the significant impact on trade and economic cooperation with Belarus. However, the expert does not rule out that such a visit can still be carried out under pressure from Russia.

However, Nikolai Beleskov, a political scientist and analyst at the Department of Military Policy at the Ukrainian Institute for Strategic Studies, is convinced that Lukashenko’s visit to Crimea is the least problem, given the greater integration of Belarus and Russia.

As Beleskov explains, the Ukrainian military is more concerned about Russia’s use of Belarus as a way to divert attention should Moscow decide to attack. This prospect greatly complicates the strategic planning of Kiev.

“Recently, the Russian and Belarusian forces have been quite active in the exercise. If we notice any aggressive and hostile action by Belarus, it will only be the result of Russia’s decisions. Now we are seeing a gradual loss of the Belarusian personality: the The country is in Russia’s sphere of influence. However, despite the fact that Russian forces will develop certain scenarios related to Belarus, the Russian military leadership will not be in a hurry to openly involve this country, because in that case the Kremlin would run the risk of an acute and very serious reaction from NATO, “said Beleskov. saying.

Delphi recalls that the EU imposed economic sanctions in the wake of Western outrage when Lukashenko sent a fighter jet to take over the Ryanair airliner from Athens to Vilnius at the end of May.

Raman Pratasevičius, a Belarusian opposition blogger, and his friend Sofia Sapega, a Russian citizen studying in Vilnius, were detained after the plane forcibly landed in Minsk.

On Monday, the Community sanctioned 86 other individuals and entities for the landing of a passenger ship and the broader repression of the opposition by the Minsk regime.

Belarus has been in crisis for months after the August presidential elections. Lukashenko, who has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1994, has been declared the winner, but the opposition and Western democracies believe the election was rigged.

Since the beginning of the crisis, the EU has announced a total of four packages of sanctions against the Belarusian regime, in addition to the new measures introduced at the end of June. The restrictions apply to a total of 166 natural persons and 15 legal persons.

In late June, the United States also expanded sanctions against Minsk; his example was soon followed by the United Kingdom and Canada.

Furthermore, the EU banned Belarusian airlines from flying to Community countries in May and urged their airlines not to use Belarusian airspace.

However, Lukashenko has so far refused to succumb to Western pressure and even warned that a state of war could be imposed on one part of the country to avoid an economic recession due to the effects of sanctions.