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The Taiwan issue is sensitive to China due to its historical context
According to political scientist V. Mačikėnaitė-Ambutavičienė, the Taiwan issue is probably the most sensitive of all for China.
“It is a very sensitive area for China because historically it has been a very problematic area in relations with other countries. In 1895 the island has been handed over to Japan under one of the so-called unequal treaties, and China still appears to have been deceived today, ”the expert told Euranet Plus on Knowledge Radio.
A little later, the island of Taiwan returned to the message of China, but after the Civil War, the Chinese Communist Party remained in mainland China.
As a result, a country established a state in Taiwan and declared a state, and a few years later, in 1949, the Communist Party announced the founding of the People’s Republic of China. This situation was very complicated: as a result of the civil war, two states emerged, claiming to be China, ”explained V. Mačikėnaitė-Ambutavičienė.
As a result, China now feels it wants to join Taiwan as if it owes a historic debt and is demonstrating such intentions: 150 Beijing fighter jets have violated Taiwan’s air defense zone since Friday, when the Chinese celebrated their national day.
Is the military conflict real?
However, as the political scientist said, it is difficult to say whether the conflict will turn into a military one.
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“It just came to our knowledge then. The end will be when we see if the conflict really starts. China is really pushing, pushing psychologically and with military means, pushing Taiwan by force.
This has been unprecedented pressure at this time, as Chinese forces have violated Taiwanese airspace a large number of times. It is a sign that “we are here, we are watching, we are seeing what exercises are happening with foreign international partners and the Chinese Liberation Army is here.” That is the message, “said V. Mačikėnaitė-Ambulevičienė.
“The fact is that China still claims that we will have to connect Taiwan with China at some point in the future. Sometimes in some languages the word ‘peaceful’ is mentioned, sometimes it is omitted,” the interlocutor continued.
He said that it is estimated that within four years, China’s military capabilities will reach a level where they can easily occupy Taiwan.
“When there is a situation where China feels confident enough that its military capabilities allow it to do so and, if necessary, fight American forces, China is likely to gain even more confidence.” The question of whether China’s connection to the conflict itself is a difficult question, “said an associate professor at an international university in Japan.
However, according to V. Mačikėnaitė-Ambulevičienė, if, according to China’s understanding, the red line is crossed, then a military conflict is possible.
“It has been a long-standing practice in the EU and in the West in general that relations with Taiwan are in fact developing: there are economic, cultural relations, exchanges, cooperation, but politics remains on the sidelines.
Such is the unwritten agreement that this is happening, at a high enough level, of course, but no one is saying out loud that this is a state and now we will have a formal relationship with this state, called Taiwan. This is a practice that has been established for many years, decades ”, commented the political scientist.
China is probably already looking to influence Lithuania and other countries.
This position, as he pointed out, has so far been followed by all EU countries.
“It just came to our attention then. It is difficult to assess how other states will behave, because when Lithuania announced its withdrawal from the 17 + 1 format, (…) at that time it was also said that more and more states would follow the example of Lithuania. Today we see that no state would have taken the same position, ”said V. Mačikėnaitė-Ambutavičienė.
So the change, according to the interlocutor, is beginning, but it is not yet clear what results it will lead to.
“It just came to our attention then. That name, the Taiwanese mission in Lithuania, is really a lot of pressure and most EU countries take the position that keeping the situation as it is now is probably beneficial for all countries, although it’s not very clear, ”said the expert.
Therefore, until now, as the political scientist said, it is not clear what is considered Taiwan, whether it is an independent state or not.
“So it just comes to our notice. The EU is still following this, but we are seeing the beginning of a change in Central Europe,” said V. Mačikėnaitė-Ambutavičienė.
Commenting on Lithuania’s decision to open a representative office under the name of Taiwan in the country, the political scientist noted that the name of the embassy may seem insignificant to us.
“It may seem like a small detail to us, but in reality it is a very, very big problem for China and a great challenge for it. It should be noted that this is a problem for China that must be addressed immediately. This means that they must persuade Lithuania to change its name or persuade other countries not to follow the same path, ”said V. Mačikėnaitė-Ambutavičienė.
He noted that even the US is talking about Taiwan requesting to change the name of the Taipei mission.
“It would complicate relations with China. After all, it is a first step for Taiwan’s status to begin to change. Having been part of China until now, Taiwan appears to be becoming an independent player in the international arena with that name.” said the political scientist.
As a result, China’s response, as recognized by the program participant, will be very strong.
“We don’t have very close relations with China and this is not a big problem for us, however, the Chinese are probably looking intensely for ways to find that weak place where Lithuania would really feel the effect and where other countries would think that maybe we shouldn’t. act so radically with China, ”added V. Mačikėnaitė-Ambutavičienė.
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