Lithuanian foreign policy fiasco – Respublika.lt

1 photo

Lithuania, with the statements of its Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius towards the leader of Belarus, has shown Europe that we are unreliable partners. Photo by Stasys Žumbis

– According to Minister Linas Linkevičius, ignoring the events in Belarus, the EU is undermining its self-confidence, because now it is especially important for Minsk to show “its place” and to plan additional sanctions for Russia. To what extent are the allegations made by our MFA manager?

– Only a person who is not completely oriented towards foreign policy can take such an attack without realizing the reaction of the allies. Had he studied the history of politics more closely, he would have realized that a different reaction could not be expected. German politics over the last decade have clearly focused on a strategic partnership with Russia. The Germans ignored the hostilities on Ukrainian territory, the downing of the Malaysian liner, etc. Angela Merkel’s statements are among the most hostile to Ukraine.

France and Russia’s friend Emmanuel Macron took a similar position. Europeans do not fully understand why Lithuania has opted for a policy of “cutting off the branch it sits on” that is detrimental to its own interests.

Then the question arises: what did Linas Linkevičius think, because it should have been clear to any sane person that Europe would not change its political line.

– But they are trying to emphasize that the Belarusians themselves have decided to overthrow Lukashenko.

– The change of government through peaceful civil protests was a well-known and widely used measure. Only if peaceful protests worked effectively in 1990-2000 did dictatorships quickly open up a methodology to combat them.

Looking more closely at the events in Belarus, we are saying that its current leader is not using blind anger to fight the opposition, but well-calculated and effective action.

Of course, L. Linkevičius, while engaged in organizing revolutionary actions, also had to have an independent consultant. Only, apparently, he still does not understand that what has been done has caused much greater problems than my Lithuanian politicians.

– Are you talking about public support campaigns?

– And about that. Let us evaluate the “Path of Freedom” from the point of view of political communication. In Lithuania, a 30 km long chain of people was formed, in which were two former presidents, prominent politicians, etc. Only to whom did those who were there in the neighboring country reach out?

There was no response in Belarus. The opposition did not show up at the border. No Lithuanian flag was responded to at the rallies, no text or public statement thanking Lithuania for its support.

What can be said about this political communication when the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry, which supposedly defends the interests of Belarusians, is trying to “shake hands” with the Gazprom representative in Belarus? Because it is Viktor Babaryka who will be Moscow’s official candidate in the elections to replace Lukashenko. Furthermore, its spokesperson, Marija Kolesnikova, reiterating the position of the official government, announced the formation of a party to replace the Constitution. With the approval of the Constitution, Lukashenko will not only be able to withdraw, but relations between Russia and Belarus will be further strengthened.

If Linkevičius’s goal was to unite Russia and Belarus, he succeeded. If the target was an independent neighboring country of Russia without Russian military bases, then the Foreign Ministry did its best not to.

– Did Lithuania keep its position in the “fool’s place”?

– If that’s the case, we could make fun of L. Linkevičius. Unfortunately, without the support of the allies, Lithuania has shown its weakness and is now accepting possible blows. It is a mistake to think that neighboring countries will not respond to our MFA policy. I will not talk about the economic consequences of these actions and the lost cargo. It is much worse that L. Linkevičius has clearly shown that he acts alone, recklessly and at a decisive moment in case of any other crisis, Lithuania may no longer receive support.

We are faced with a completely new reality. The situation has improved slightly with the Alexei Navaln conflict. Merkel’s latest statements on this issue may also be helpful for Lithuania’s position, but her tone is changing very quickly. Attempts to impose sanctions on Russia or talk of shutting down the Nord Stream 2 project end immediately after Merkel receives calls from German industrialists in need of cheap Russian gas.

– So how can we evaluate the performance of our MFA?

– L. Linkevičius’s game is the biggest defeat of Lithuanian foreign policy in the last decade. And another “flat place”. The situation could be adjusted and, by maintaining ties and relations, Belarus could be influenced more than Lithuanian politicians could imagine.

The challenge for politics and politicians is maximum flexibility and the ability to take advantage of the situation. In the current situation, L. Linkevičius prevented all possibilities.

If we are the enemy of Russia, no. 2, is the enemy no. 1. For them, anger with the Poles is uncomfortable, and with us, fiction. In the 30 years of independence, we have only succeeded in concentrating the forces of one adversary on the border, while another hostile state accuses us of provocative behavior. Given the enormous global political tensions, this situation can only be ignored by a person working for the interests of a foreign state or a complete fool.