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Vaidotas Šileika, president of the Association of Lithuanian Stowage Companies and Head of the Klaipeda Container Terminal, says that the situation would be difficult if the Belarusian cargo is lost, as there are almost no free cargoes in the region that can be absorbed.
“If today we lose the flow from Belarus in the short term, I think the situation would be complicated enough,” V. Sileika told BNS.
“There are no shipments that do not have their own port today. In fact, all the cargo moving through the Baltic countries today, it would be very difficult to attract them, it would be a long period of time. It depends not only on the work of the port companies, but also on the railway rates and other things ”, he explained.
The EU intends to adopt sectoral sanctions against Belarus this week in response to the landing of a Ryanair jet in Minsk in May. This package of sanctions would cover seven sectors, including the Belarusian potash fertilizer trade with the EU.
The director of the association affirms that the impact of the loss of potassium fertilizers would not only be felt by the bulk cargo company (BKT), which handles most of them, but also by other companies, around 1 million. tons of containerized Belarusian fertilizers are not handled through BKT, furthermore, competition between port companies for the remaining cargo would intensify.
According to him, when there is a real probability of losing Belarusian cargo, both the Lithuanian Railways and the Klaipeda Port Authority are trying to increase some infrastructure fees, which, according to V. Šileika, can further reduce the competitiveness of companies. stevedores.
Indrė Genytė-Pikčienė, economist at INVL Asset Management, also says that it will be impossible to quickly change the Belarusian cargo.
“It is clear that this will not happen in a day, it is a fact,” I. Genytė-Pikčienė told BNS.
He stressed that both the Klaipeda port and the Lithuanian railways, which carry cargo to the port, are heavily dependent on Belarus, and the constant flow of cargo was a kind of comfort zone, which did not want to move even in 2014, when Ukraine- Russia conflict began.
“Then (in 2014) private companies realized that Eastern markets, while profitable, were at risk of being inadequate for profits and that dependence on the private sector had been significantly reduced,” the economist said.
Alternatives: Turkey and Ukraine?
Algis Latakas, the head of the Klaipeda port, had mentioned earlier this year that when there was a threat of losing a part of the Belarusian cargo, he started looking at the Turkish and Ukrainian markets.
To do this, he said, it would be necessary to cross Ukraine and Belarus by train. Lithuania Railways also spoke about the fight for cargo transportation from Turkey: company representatives said that the flow of cargo from Turkey to Scandinavia is quite large, but now it goes in a circle, around the entire European continent.
However, I. Genytė-Pikčienė says that in the current context there are many questions about how cargo would be transported from Turkey or Ukraine.
“It will depend a lot on the sanctions, if the sanctions will include transit. If it covers, then there are a lot of questions about how it will separate from Belarusian products,” said INVL Asset Management economist at BNS.
V. Šileika is also skeptical about the possibility of compensating for the Belarusian cargo loss with Turkish or Ukrainian cargo.
“In those directions, we really cannot expect very large flows that can fully offset the losses we have now. It will take some time before we link certain flows with certain countries and find new clients, ”said the director of the Association of Stevedoring Companies.
For his part, I. Genytė-Pikčienė emphasized that in the future the European rail Baltica rail may become an opportunity for Lithuania, but for this it is technically necessary to ensure that the load in Kaunas can be transferred smoothly from the European gauge to the widest Russian gauge and then transported to Klaipeda.
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Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė said on Monday that the government would assess the impact of the sanctions on Belarus on Lithuanian companies and provide financial support if necessary.
“The government will definitely assess this impact as much as it will need the support of the government, for example infrastructure or other things, as it will be,” said I. Šimonytė.
Egidijus Lazauskas, director of the Lithuanian rail freight company LTG Cargo, says that the ban on the transport of Belarusian goods through Lithuania would cost the company around LTL 100 million. by year. Last year, LTG Cargo received almost 400 million. entry.
E. Lazauskas also claims that it will not be possible to quickly change the Belarusian cargo.
“When you are overweight and suddenly you decide that you need to lead a healthy life, you need to go to the gym, adjust your diet; changes do not happen in a day or two,” E. Lazauskas told the portal vz.lt.
V. Šileika asserts that state aid to the companies most affected can be vital.
“It would be premature to talk about subsidies, but those companies that are very connected with Belarus, if they were affected by the sanctions, could talk about subsidies, because it would be a matter of practical survival,” said a representative of the Klaipeda port companies. .
I. Genytė-Pikčienė states that both the railways and the port had to prepare a financial pillow in case they lost their Belarusian cargo.
“Tensions have been monitored for some time, so all companies should have included that scenario and financial tools and pads for it. As is the case with these specific companies, it is difficult to comment,” said the economist.
“But it is clear that support may be needed for these companies to operate,” he added.
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