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“The average air temperature was the same as in July (16-18.4 ° C), and the distribution of rainfall is very varied: from a few tenths of a mm in some parts of the west and north of the country to 20-30 mm in the eastern part. However, even these figures do not reflect the full diversity of rainfall distribution, “wrote D. Stankūnavičius, whose global weather forecast and review were shared by the Department of Hydrology and Climatology at Vilnius University (VU) on your Facebook account.
The climatologist wrote that at the Šiauliai weather station on June 8. 5.5 mm of precipitation was measured, although “although the photos and videos published in the newspapers show that in some parts of the city the intensity of the rain was more than 10 mm per hour.”
Similarly in Vilnius: Vilnius Weather Station on June 9. “13 mm of precipitation was recorded on the Youtube channel, although it was possible to see reports of very heavy rains in different districts of Vilnius, and an amateur weather station in the village of Dvarykščiai (about 300 m west of Lake Salotė) recorded up to 45mm of precipitation per day, “he said.
Doc. D. Stankūnavičius wrote that meeting the criteria for a natural meteorological phenomenon was not enough.
And such unevenness in the rain field is not a major meteorological or climatic anomaly, he wrote.
“Rather, it shows the location of the intense precipitation foci and the rainball clouds that form them. Of course, without large-scale factors. The weather was affected by an immobile low-pressure, low-pressure area over Ukraine and Central Russia, left from a black cyclone (and Azov) in active regeneration. In the upper part of the troposphere there is a wide valley above this residual cyclone, and in the lower troposphere this area gradually fills with warm and humid air. Such large-scale hydrothermal conditions (including eastern and part of central Lithuania) lead to high atmospheric volatility, relatively large amounts of available convective energy (CAPE), and convergence of moisture to the earth’s surface.
Atmospheric volatility is further aggravated in the mornings, when rising convective currents disrupt the holding layers overnight. Then powerful spherical clouds quickly form and torrential rains fall. The intensity of convective flows is strongly influenced by local conditions: topography, vegetation, thermal and physical barriers (densely urbanized neighborhoods and their change with green areas and bodies of water), exposure of slopes to predominant transport, etc.
Under favorable local conditions, the CAPE energy increases to 1000 J / kg and more in the afternoon, spherical clouds develop rapidly in the vertical direction and heavy rains fall. Another characteristic of such conditions is that they are favorable not only for heavy local rains, but also for local hail, thunderstorms, or even severe slag. If the CAPE energy increases to 2500 J / kg (this occurs when it invades a humid air mass of tropical origin), and the atmospheric volatility is caused not only by the conditions described above, but also by an atmospheric front with high thermal contrasts and humidity, probability, “wrote the climatologist.
D. Stankūnavičius stated that the volatile air mass with short rains will remain over most of Lithuania throughout Friday, from Samogitia to eastern Lithuania. But the situation will change the following night.
“The old field of small gradients with the prevailing weak winds will move to the east and will be replaced by an active barley valley with a cold atmospheric front from the west. Therefore, on Saturday night, the wind will gradually turn from the southeast and strengthen, and on Saturday afternoon (in the western part, in the afternoon) as the front passes, the wind will turn to the west , northwest and will increase. Before the front is folded, the air may heat up to 21-27 ° C in some places, after which the air will temporarily cool. As this front will move more slowly over Lithuania as it moves east and southeast, it will fall to 20–30 mm in places of precipitation, mainly, most likely, in the southern, central and eastern parts of Lithuania.
On Sunday, Lithuania will continue to be behind this front, where a mass of cool and humid air will prevail, so it is possible that you will rain in the short term in many places, with thunderstorms. The seashore will continue to be the sunniest and air temperatures will range between 20 ° C in the west and places in the central part and 13-18 ° C in the eastern part of the country, ”he shared.
G. Stankūnavičius also presented a forecast for next week’s weather: the temperature will rise, he promises.
“Starting Monday, the Central European anticyclone crest will expand into the eastern part of the Baltic region, the rain will stop and the average and maximum air temperatures will increase.” In the middle and second half of the week, the blockade anticyclone will intensify again over northern Russia and with its circulatory system it will begin to extract air from the steppes of southern Russia. Therefore, the maximum daily temperature in Lithuania will reach 25-30 ° C in some places. The arrival of more humid air is expected again by the end of next week, but the weather will continue to be warm, “wrote the climatologist.
It also presented a pleasant long-term weather forecast: the warmer and relatively drier weather in Lithuania will last until early July.
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