In such conditions, the choice has never taken place: the expert already distinguishes two main intrigues

The Central Electoral Commission (CEC) reminds voters that when going to the polls, this time it is not only necessary to collect an identity document, but also to wear a face shield that covers the nose and mouth and to have your own personal pen.

During the pre-election period, neither the long lines nor the exceptional conditions appeared to deter voters. During the four days of early voting, 178 thousand people expressed their will in the Seimas elections. 145 or 7.39 percent. of all voters. Four years ago, there were twice as many: 3.49 percent. or 87 thousand. 59, but then early voting in the municipalities also lasted twice as short: two days, according to CEC data published by the SNB.

However, he is a professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University.
Tomas Janeliūnas does not believe that the general turnout in the Seimas elections can increase in the same proportion or in a similar way.

“Much more often, people just choose a more convenient way. Consequently, this year, as you may expect large queues on Sunday as all security requirements also apply, the same people who could attend on Sunday decided to do so earlier at a more convenient time. Such an increase in activity during the lead-up to the vote would not allow us to say that overall activity will be significantly higher, ”said T. Janeliūnas.

Greater activity favors liberals

Voter participation is one of the factors that increases or decreases the chances that individual political forces will enter the Seimas.

According to the political scientist, the traditionally superior activity is in favor of the liberal parties.

“It’s harder for them to keep voters stable, and they often attract younger voters, especially the first-time voting group in general. His electorate is not stable. Also, for the smaller parties that are looking for new voters who do not yet have established preferences, that is, those undecided voters, who sometimes come and sometimes do not. For some smaller parties, this can be a very favorable criterion ”, considered T. Janeliūnas.

According to the political scientist, the increased participation has an adverse effect on the chances that the Union of Christian Families of the Lithuanian Polish Election Campaign (LLRA-KŠS) will cross the five percent barrier.

“Their constituency is very stable and that relative ratio is very important to them,” said T. Janeliūnas.

According to the VU TSPMI professor, it has been said in the past that the ratio of conservatives to the number of votes they receive from incoming voters also depends somewhat on overall turnout.

“Conservative voters are often willing to vote under any conditions. They are loyal supporters of the party. In cases where turnout is low, the proportion of loyal conservative supporters naturally increases,” said T. Janeliūnas.

Don’t think there will be many corrupt ballots

Considering that the campaign, which encourages voters to come and spoil the vote so that only the LLRA-KŠS does not enter the Seimas, it can set foot not only for this political force, but also for others swinging in the threshold of five percent, for example, the Freedom Party, T. Janeliūnas would not agree with the assessment.

“It is the biggest activity of the Freedom Party which is very welcome. It desperately needs a lot of activity from Vilnius and possibly other larger cities. It is not very easy to attract such people here,” said the political scientist.

However, the expert does not expect the proportion of damaged votes to be very high.

“If a person already comes to the polls, in the end, perhaps even by chance, they will be more inclined to make a real voice than to spoil the ballot.” The very meaning of coming still increases if you give a real voice, even if you are not very determined ”, considered T. Janeliūnas.

Two topics are intriguing

During this election, the greatest intrigue for the political scientist himself is to observe whether the LLRA-KŠS and the Freedom Party will cross the five percent barrier to enter the Seimas.

“One runs the risk of not feeling overwhelmed and surprised, and the other is exaggerating and also being a little surprised,” said T. Janeliūnas.

The second intrigue, which is interesting to the VU TSPMI speaker, is whether the Labor Party will be able to come back strong.

“Although I don’t think they have to do something very unexpected. I would be surprised if they achieved something close to 10%, but I doubt it, ”said T. Janeliūnas.

Seven parties would enter the Seimas

On October 6, ELTA published the latest party rankings before the elections, based on research data from the Baltic.

According to a survey conducted by the market research and public opinion company Baltijos tyrimai from September 17 to 27, two or three weeks before the Seimas elections, the Lithuanian Green and Peasant Union (LVŽS) led by Ramūnas Karbauskis has the greatest support of the population. The “peasants” sympathize with 21.2% of those surveyed.

Second is the Union of the Fatherland led by Gabrielius Landsbergis – Lithuanian Christian Democrats. Currently, the Conservative supports a sixth (16.3%) of the population decided to participate in the elections.

The third result is demonstrated by the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP) of Gintautas Paluckas, following the survey data. The Social Democrats aim to cast 12.8% of the votes. citizens who intend to go to the Seimas elections.

The Liberal Movement led by Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen (8.3%), the Labor Party led by Viktoras Uspaskichas (8.1%) and Freedom and Justice chaired by Remigijus Žemaitaitis (7.3%) show a 5% poster. percent). The Lithuanian Polish electoral campaign of Valdemaras Tomaševskis – the Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS) is the last to cross the electoral barrier necessary for the party to enter the Seimas. Support for her, according to a survey declared at 5.3 percent. Citizens who wish to participate in the Seimas elections.

Other political parties remained within the five percent of the cartel.

As the systematized poll data showed, just under a tenth (8.1 percent) of those polled who plan to run in Sunday’s elections have not yet decided which party to vote for. According to Baltic Research, these are most often young people under 30, urban residents, unemployed and housewives, young people in education, and Russians.

The survey showed that 2-3 weeks before the Seimas elections, just under half (45%) of the country’s adult population intended to attend. A quarter (23%) said they did not intend to vote at all. Meanwhile, a third (32%) of the surveyed population have not yet decided at all whether they will go to the Seimas elections.

Compared to the responses of the population a month ago, those who intend to vote in the Seimas elections on October 11. decreased by 5 percentage points. And comparing the data from September of this year with the responses provided by the population 4 years ago, the proportion of citizens who will go to the elections is similar to the part prior to the 2016 Seimas elections.