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In this year’s Seimas elections, as Social Democratic leader G. Paluckas put it, his goal was to improve the party’s 2016. electoral result.
“We hope for the best. We hope that Lithuania will win and that the Social Democrats will not do it badly either. Overall, we expect a better result than in 2016. We have declared it more than once,” G. Paluck told reporters on election night. .
PHOTO GALLERY. Electoral headquarters of the LSDP
“Dotted” 38 thousand. votes
Unfortunately, the party did not achieve this goal. In the multi-member constituency, the Socdems won eight seats, five fewer than in 2016. Twelve Social Democratic candidates moved into the second round this year.
Consequently, in case of maximum success, the party can increase the number of its seats to 20. It is true that in the last elections the LSDP managed to win only four additional seats in the second round.
Another eloquent indicator is the number of voters who voted for the Socdems. 2016 183,597 voters voted for the LSDP, this year – 108,242.
Needless to say, some of the LSDP votes were “eaten up” by the split-up Lithuanian Social Democratic Labor Party (LSDDP), which received 37,043 votes this year. However, even adding the votes of both parties, it is obvious that more than 38,000 people left the socialdem. voters.
The call that something was wrong rang out a long time ago
Vytautas Dumbliauskas, associate professor and political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), believes that the real problems of the LSDP did not begin during this Seimas period, but much earlier, in 2008, after Gediminas Kirkilas was Prime Minister.
“In 2004, when there was a coalition of Brazauskas and Paulauskas, the Social Democrats received almost 247 thousand. votes. And then, in my head, Kirkilas’s failed presence as Prime Minister in 2008. The Social Democrats received about 145,000. votes. <...> Butkevičius in 2008-2012, I think, got along well with the opposition; the Social Democrats have already received 251 thousand. votes, ”V. Dumbliauskas told tv3.lt.
It is in 2012. According to V. Dumbliauskas, the result of the Seimas elections was the time of the rise of the Social Democrats, but the following years were misused by the Social Democrats in the Seimas.
“In my head, they’ve been hanging out for those four years, they haven’t done what they could have done. And in 2016 Socdems have already received only 183 thousand. votes, the decrease was practically 70 thousand. votes. This decline began around 2012. mandate, and in 2016 there was a call to the Socdems that they were doing something wrong, ”recalled the associate professor at MRU.
V. Dumbliauskas names the LSDP decision in 2016 as the last blow to the match. joining the ruling coalition together with the Lithuanian Peasants and Greens Union and the breakup that followed a year later.
“These retirees – Bernatons, Kirkilas, Šiauliai – I don’t know if they took office, but they ruined the matter for the party, they did a lot. Even after adding the votes received by LSDP and LSDDP this year, 145 thousand people leave. – decline even greater than in 2016 Consequently, the Social Democrats did something wrong between 2016 and 2020 ”, summarized V. Dumbliauskas.
The performance of the social democrats of Vladas Gaidis, a sociologist and director of the Vilmorus Center for Public Opinion and Market Research, did not surprise him in the Seimas elections. Public opinion polls for Socdems predicted 11.9 percent. support, and they received 9.26 percent in the election. votes.
“They were third in the polls all the time, alongside the Labor Party. Their great tragedies occurred in 2016, when their votes were taken by the peasants, and in 2017, when they were divided, then the electorates were divided in two. There were two tragedies. in four years, but at the moment I don’t see a special jump in viewership ratings, ”V. Gaidys told tv3.lt.
The failure of G. Paluck
2017 The LSDP was renewed and elected a young politician as president: Gintautas Paluckas, the then deputy mayor of Vilnius. However, it seems that even a young and ambitious politician could not ensure the success of the Social Democrats in this year’s Seimas elections.
V. Gaidys points out that G. Paluck is not a sufficiently charismatic leader, which has a significant impact on party support.
“The Social Democrats once had more popular leaders. First, Algirdas Brazauskas. Algirdas Butkevičius was also a popular leader. Of all those who were there, Mr. Paluck was the least popular. The overall popularity of it is not high. .
But he was not and will not be a charismatic leader. Still, charismatic leaders must have innate traits that you won’t cultivate or buy. Viktor Uspaskich is probably an example of how popular he is despite everything. When he left the party, he started to disappear, when he came back, everything came up again the same day, ”said V. Gaidys.
At the time, V. Dumbliauskas compared G. Paluck to the conservative leader Gabriel Landsbergis. Two young politicians, although they seem to have all the necessary data, fail to ensure guaranteed victories for their parties. By the way, V. Dumbliauskas explains the success of the conservatives in these elections to the Seimas only with the contribution of the leader of the party list Ingrida Šimonytė.
“GRAMO. Paluck did the right thing when he became president. He seems to have it all: tall, handsome, young, smart, and well-spoken, but something like Gabriel Landsberg fails. They both have data and are clearly not doing well,” said V. Dumbliauskas.
It is true that the political scientist suggests to G. Paluck that he repeat what G. Landsbergis did before 2016. Elections to the Seimas, and to “cleanse” the party of its members, as well as to attract young politicians and intellectuals to its ranks.
“Perhaps it would be enough to accompany the party’s retirement-age members to advisers or other positions.” Still, the conservatives, apparently, before 2016. He made a strong renovation – he thanked the old party members, veterans, although for some of them it was painful.
In my opinion, the Social Democrats lack more young intellectuals and, along with Mr. Paluck, an energetic, young and educated woman who has graduated in politics, economics or law is needed. They should look for brighter and smarter people. In this way, they would attract the votes of the cities, because the Socdema has lost the cities a long time ago: Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipėda, Panevėžys ”, pointed out V. Dumbliauskas.
Party votes were “devoured” by others
It is obvious that 38 thousand. Voters who did not give their vote to the Social Democrats this year did not evaporate anywhere. Either they chose to support another political force or they chose not to run for office at all.
“Something was not done until the end and we have to think about what was not because the Socdems are losing the left electorate. They give it to formations like the Labor Party. The Labor Party received 51 thousand. more than in 2016 Of course, it echoed the voices of the peasants, that is a fact.
We can assume that the left did not come to vote, and in general the activity is less. Not everything was taken over by the Labor Party, so where are those votes? That is, people did not go to the polls. There was frustration with the Socdems ”, summarized V. Dumbliauskas.
The second round of the parliamentary elections will take place on October 25.
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