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Professor Tomas Janeliūnas from the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI), in cooperation with the Center for Eastern European Studies (RESC), presented a review based on a survey of Lithuanian experts analyzing the probable future political developments in Belarus in the next 3-6 months.
Survival of the regime and intensified repression
Under this scenario, the scale of the protests is gradually decreasing, physical and psychological fatigue is occurring, and it is increasingly difficult for protesters to stay motivated to attend mass events.
Their motivation is only weakened by the intense arrest of the most active protesters and other means of pressure. In this scenario, the mass of strikes does not change or decrease, and protests in companies are usually short-lived, do not cause significant disruptions in the economic system.
The Coordination Council is failing to acquire sufficient resources and become a legitimate and universally recognized political institution, and the sources of information remain decentralized.
Lukashenko manages to maintain loyalty to the power structures. It does not recognize the legitimacy of the Coordinating Council, rejects the possibility of changing the Constitution, holding new presidential elections or seeking other ways to change the political system.
This scenario contemplates a systematic and massive deal with the most active protesters, members of the strike committees, the analysis writes.
“Scanpix” / AP nuotr./Aliaksandras Lukašenka
In this case, Russia provides hybrid support to Lukashenko, but in return demands greater humility from the Kremlin, including faster integration of the alliance. The West imposes sanctions on people, Lukashenko politically isolated.
However, the nascent civil society is grouped into “shadow” organizations, groups of silent resistance, and disobedience campaigns are carried out periodically. The general public is losing confidence in Lukashenko and a new opportunity and leaders are expected to bring out outrage, according to the review.
According to the Lithuanian experts who participated in the survey, this scenario is the most likely.
Long-term resistance and wear mode
The rallies themselves cannot force regime change without radical escalation, experts say.
In this scenario, it is envisioned that the forms of protest can take a strategic form in order to mobilize the public for long-term resistance and the suffocation of the regime. According to experts, a prerequisite for this is the strengthening of the Coordinating Council or other opposition forces and strategic planning.
In this scenario, the forms of resistance would turn into an economic and social disruption of the regime: growing strikes, growing problems in collecting taxes, paying pensions, salaries of civil servants, energy workers, etc. It would not be possible to neutralize such resistance by force, but the system could take months.
VIDEO: Belarusians continued to flood the streets every night: yesterday’s march was accompanied by singers, flags were waved
Russia’s intervention in providing financial and economic assistance can be a very important factor in maintaining the survival of the regime and Lukashenko’s credibility in the eyes of his supporters. However, the Kremlin’s support may also be limited: prolonged resistance would rob it of its own resources, my experts say.
Mr Lukashenko, seeing the growing risk of economic collapse, could try to negotiate some proposals from the opposition, such as amending the constitution and holding elections.
“Balancing Russia (in exchange for financial aid) and opposition affairs could be a great challenge for Lukashenko, and the process itself could take quite some time,” the analysis said.
Sudden escalation and substantial fracture
In the first 2-3 weeks after the elections, there was no major breakthrough that would mean that Lukashenko would lose control of power, mainly due to the maintenance of power structures. However, my experts, this does not mean that unplanned escalation cannot occur.
“In the event of a bloody escalation or an order to use firearms against peaceful protesters, the attitude of the representatives of the power structures towards the protests and the legitimacy of A. Lukashena and the leaders of the power structures may change, “says the analysis of the third possible scenario.
According to experts, if the disintegration begins within internal affairs or military structures, Lukashenko could lose his essential support base in no time. Even the withdrawal of one or more units together with their commanders from the coercive structure could become a boost.
In the event of a breakthrough, Lukashenko could be forced to engage in real talks with protesters or look for sudden ways to retreat. It is emphasized that the probability of such a scenario is not high, it should be in Russia’s interest to prevent events from escalating so that it cannot get involved in them in time.
According to experts, the influence of Russia is significant. Until the Kremlin decides to maintain the Lukashenko regime, the support of the power structures must be guaranteed.
Additional script threads
Prof. The analysis presented by T. Janeliūnas indicates additional threads that can intervene in all scenarios and change their course.
Moscow may choose to replace Lukashenko if the cost of supporting him, including his reputation, becomes excessive. This could be done in a number of ways, from persuading him to resign to a military coup.
As the economic situation deteriorates, Lukashenko could propose copycat reforms, such as starting the process of changing the Constitution, initiating a reduction in the power of the president, proposing several referenda, or even preparing for new elections. The goal is to create the illusion that Lukashenko is committed to change.
With mounting pressure from protesters and mounting tensions on the country’s economy, an internal coup could ensue. An internally-formed coup group could seek links with both the opposition and Moscow. Analysis indicates that this scenario is unlikely.
Talk about torture
Mass protests in Belarus erupted on August 9, when authorities announced that they had defeated the country’s leader, Lukashenko. The elections were held without international observers and the EU does not recognize the results of its elections.
In the early days, the protests were violently suppressed and the arrests of peaceful protesters continue to this day. In total, about 7,000 were arrested. people, some of them were released. People released from solitary confinement and doctors treating detainees speak of torture.
VIDEO: Detainees in Belarus spoke of incomprehensible cruelty: “You could hear people being beaten outside all night.”
Sviatlana Cichanouskaja, who was declared the winner of the elections, was forced to leave the country; currently working in Lithuania. After the elections, Cichanouskaya’s supporters formed a Coordination Council that called for a dialogue that would also discuss the organization of presidential elections.
Banker Viktaras Babaryka and his chief of staff, Maryja Kalesnikava, one of the members of the Presidium of the Coordinating Council, who were imprisoned in this week’s presidential elections, announced the formation of the “Juntos” (“Vmeste”) party.
According to them, the main goals of the party are to ensure the implementation of the constitutional reform and the desire to improve the Belarusian economy and to ensure the opportunity for the people to take civic initiatives. Read more about plans to create a party here..
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