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After the last Seimas elections, both Libertad y Justicia and the political scientists of the LSDDP do not have happy predictions. They say that the political careers of these parties are likely to end after the unsuccessful Seimas elections. Although experts unanimously agree that the LLRA-KŠS will not disappear from politics for the time being and will continue its work at the municipal level, but it emphasizes that structural changes are necessary for the party to return to the highest political level.
T. Janeliūnas: LLRA-KŠS will continue to actively participate in self-government
Professor Tomas Janeliūnas from the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences (VU TSPMI) says that the parties that did not join the Seimas this year are very different, so it is natural that the future prospects of these formations policies are different. However, the political scientist emphasizes that at least for the moment it is clear that 5 percent. The Polish electoral campaign in Lithuania, the Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS), which has not overcome the barrier of parliamentary elections, will not disappear from politics.
“LLRA-KŠS will not leave yet, because its main strength and strength is in the regions, that is, in self-government. Even after these failed elections, this does not change in principle, moreover, they will have several representatives in the Seimas, there will be at least some representation at the national level as well, ”T. Janeliūnas told Eltai.
The political scientist also claims that he sees no prospect of LLRA-KŠS leader Valdemaras Tomaševskis resigning as party president. He also emphasizes that the LLRA-KŠS is too dependent on the current leader, therefore, according to the political scientist, the party would have a hard time finding something that could replace V. Tomaševskis.
“The party depends largely on V. Tomaševskis personally and on his relatives, friends, all kinds of advisers, assistants, etc. This whole group has arisen from the same kingdom. And I don’t think that V. Tomaševskis would change or leave the party to another person, because it is his personal political project ”, shared the political scientist and emphasized that V. Tomaševskis himself would not leave his post in this way.
Gediminas Kirkilas, Juozas Bernatonis
However, speaking of the Lithuanian Social Democratic Labor Party (LSDDP) led by Gediminas Kirkilas and the political force “Freedom and Justice” led by Remigijus Žemaitaitis, founded this year, the political scientist underlines that the future prospects of these political forces are quite different.
T. Janeliūnas is convinced that after the failed performance in the Seimas elections, LSDDP was no longer attractive, which, according to him, was doomed to destruction.
“The Social Democrats, in my opinion, are out of breath, their leaders are apparently tired and frustrated. And it seems that both Gediminas Kirkilas and Juozas Bernatonis are ready to withdraw from active politics. And consequently, other politicians who are thinking in another political perspective will probably need to look to other parties. So there will be a natural collapse of this party, because as a separate entity it currently has no power and, I think, it is not attractive to anyone, ”said T. Janeliūnas.
Professor TSPMI is also skeptical of the Freedom and Justice party’s chances of surviving in the political arena. T. Janeliūnas claims that “Freedom and Justice” was just a political project that brought together the different political forces of Artūras Zuokas, Remigijus Žemaitaitis and Artūras Paulauskas for the Seimas elections.
The Freedom and Justice Party, as a new and not yet firmly established force, will likely be a unique project that brought together Zuokas, Žemaitaitis and Paulauskas. This project didn’t work out very well. It is possible that it will go very quickly and there will be some attempts to create another new project before the Seimas or municipal elections, ”he said.
L. Bielinis: The “social workers” have already exhausted the full range of political options
Meanwhile, Lauras Bielinis, a professor at the Vytautas Magnus University (VMU), affirms that if the parties that have not joined the Seimas will remain in politics, it depends on their activity and vitality to achieve the objectives set. The political scientist also criticizes T. Janeliūnas, stating that the LLRA-KŠS will not withdraw from politics and will be active in self-government.
“LLRA-KŠS, I think, will definitely not go anywhere, they will really try to reorient themselves, they are very aware that there is a voter and that it is necessary to discover, get used to, educate that voter,” said the political scientist.
“And at the municipal level, they are a fairly strong party that controls a significant part of the territory of Lithuania and actually manages it quite normally,” he added.
According to the professor, if the LLRA-KŠS works determinedly to mobilize its voters, this party will undoubtedly enter parliament in the next Seimas elections. L. Bielinis is also convinced that a new young leader would help the party recover after the unsuccessful Seimas elections.
But if it remains as it is, the existing inertia will continue to drive this party. It is natural that young people really look at other political structures, not LLRA-KŠS, ”said L. Bielinis.
Artūras Zuokas, Remigijus Žemaitaitis, Artūras Paulauskas
When asked to evaluate the possibilities of the Freedom and Justice Party to remain in politics, the political scientist emphasized that they were minimal. According to L. Bielinis, this party was formed only by the possibility of running for the Seimas in an organized way, but according to the political scientist, there are almost no aspects that unite the party leaders.
“It is doubtful that the party survived, because in reality it was a mosaic made up of very different interests, very different personalities. “I am glad that they participated and took more than one percent of the votes, but in my opinion, because they are leaders of different interests and characters, I think they will move away a bit, and if they want to pursue politics they will join other parties”, He said. he.
L. Bielinis also emphasizes that, in his opinion, “social workers” will not be able to return to the political arena with force.
“With a bang, they certainly won’t be able to return because, in practice, most of their leaders are of retirement age, they are tired, they have exhausted the full range of policy options in a few decades, and their return would require huge resources, costs of personal and organizational energy, “he said. Teacher.
“I don’t think they can do that, so I think they will come out a bit,” he emphasized.
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