He evaluated the latest indicators of the pandemic: the British strain is doing its black work

The acceleration of the pandemic in Lithuania has been positive for 11 days, and the increase in cases on Monday and Tuesday reached 25-38%. If this acceleration continued in the second half of April, we would reach 2,000 cases a day.

Since last Monday, diseases in Vilnius County accounted for 54% of all cases in Lithuania, and the number of diagnosed cases has doubled since February. The number of beds occupied by COVID-19 patients is also growing strongly in the Vilnius region: yesterday the occupancy of resuscitation beds in Vilnius had reached 90%. and had to add more treatment and resuscitation beds.

In western Lithuania, the situation is the opposite: in the Šiauliai region last week there were no resuscitation patients for 3 days. Such regional differences are likely due to movement restrictions between municipalities.

Based on last week’s studies on S gene precipitation and N501Y mutations (positive cases detected on Monday and Tuesday) in Lithuania, the B.1.1.7 strain is likely already widespread in almost all of Lithuania, but its dominance is only visible in Vilnius, Utena and Marijampolė counties.

In other regions, the variety will prevail in 2-3 weeks, so if the epidemiological situation is not under control, the dynamics in them should be similar to what we see in Vilnius.

Summary of key indicators

1) The current increase in cases is currently very similar to what we saw in late October.: On Monday and Tuesday we registered the same figures as at the end of January, the number of cases increased by 35% on Monday and 28% on Tuesday.

two) The percentage of positive tests increased slightly, but the indicators of greatest concern have also increased (number of symptomatic subjects, proportion of positive tests detected among them and proportion of municipalities with an increase in cases and / or positive tests) – We have not seen such a situation that they have grown in most Lithuanian municipalities since December.

3) The situation in eastern Lithuania is deteriorating very rapidly: in Vilnius city and district, the 7-day average of new cases has doubled per month and the rate continues to grow.. The number of patients treated in both hospitalization and resuscitation is growing in hospitals in the Vilnius region, and additional beds are being added. Compared to the Šiauliai region, where most municipalities have reached the yellow zone, the situation in hospitals is improving.

4) The acceleration of the pandemic has been positive for 11 days (recently it ranges from 15 to 23%) and there is currently no reason to decrease it, as the situation in eastern Lithuania is deteriorating rapidly.

5) If the current acceleration were maintained, we would reach an average of 1,000 cases a day in mid-April, and if the growth were the same as at the beginning of this week we would exceed 2,000 cases a day in the second half of April.

6) To operationally assess the prevalence of the B.1.1.7 strain in Lithuania, most of the positive cases on Monday and Tuesday of last week were analyzed for the precipitation of the S gene and the N501Y mutation. Both indicators, which are specific to the B.1.1.7 strain, are adequate to estimate its prevalence. Based on the research results obtained, it is very likely that in Vilnius, Utena and Marijampolė counties this variety represents 70% (and more) of new cases, but in other parts of Lithuania its prevalence is at least 25 %.