He assessed the future of Karbauskis and Skvernelis: there is only one smart way

Now it will be more difficult to unite the opposition

Explaining why he did not become the head of the informal government, S. Skvernelis admitted that he viewed opposition work a little differently. According to him, it was possible to try to build a government in the shadow of all opposition parties.

“I think it was necessary to try to form a coalition government of opposition factions. If we talk about real steps and real actions, we are probably well aware that it will probably not be the case in Lithuania that a political party forms the government,” reasoned the former prime minister.

“However, there are decisions to form a separate shadow government. Everything is normal,” added S. Skvernelis.

Not only that, S. Skvernelis pointed out, after the “peasants” formed a shadow government, it will be even more difficult to consolidate the opposition parties.

“It just came to our notice then. This step will probably make it even more difficult to do. Let’s not forget one essential thing: that both the LSDP, the Labor Party, and the ‘peasants’ are also competitors for the same voter. Therefore , there is a fear that smaller opposition factions will be overshadowed, “said Skvernelis.

According to the latest Spinter research survey Delphi by order, former Prime Minister S. Skvernel is the second choice of respondents as the most suitable candidate for the post of Prime Minister.

Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė’s rating in this poll is 34.2 percent, S. Skvernelis – 7.6 percent.

“There are no eternal friends or enemies in politics”

Professor at Vytautas Magnus University (VMU), political scientist Mindaugas Jurkynas Delphi Skvernel’s decision clearly showed that his goal was to find an opposition leader.

“If a politician foresees a different activity, it means that this activity seems more logical. From the information that has reached us in the public sphere, I think that S. Skvernel, as a former prime minister, with his managerial and political experience is expected , be the leader of the opposition.

But it cannot declare it automatically, because it requires a certain number of opposition representatives to support it, “said the political scientist.

As in the previous legislature of the Seimas, this position would be rotated, appointed to a different number of representatives of the parties that signed the opposition agreement, said M. Jurkynas.

“I think Skvernel’s role is logically planned by him as leader of the opposition,” he said.

When asked if this indicates certain disagreements between LVS leader R. Karbauskis and S. Skvernelis, Vytautas University political scientist Magnus stated that there are no eternal enemies or friends in politics.

“There are no eternal friends in politics, there are no eternal enemies, there are interests and activities. Without a doubt, S. Skvernelis is quite a popular politician, a recognizable figure in the ranks of peasant voters. This visibility and your highest rating is important to a political party. Logically, the former Prime Minister S. Skvernelis for R. Karbauskis is an important political actor who attracts a part of the voters, ”he emphasized.

When political scientist M. Jurkynas was asked whether it was worth it for the former prime minister to now form a new faction in the Seimas, he recalled that any division of voters is very strictly evaluated.

“The history of the division of political parties is merciless for divided parties. (…) The verdict of the electorate is unfavorable to them. This decomposition has very high costs and the prospects are very small”, recalled M. Jurkynas.

Delphi The interlocutor explained that such political movements would not benefit anyone at this time.

“I imagine that any division or disagreement would not benefit the larger faction of the opposition. Also, they can count on internal divisions to weaken their awareness, the importance of the shadow government. At the moment, it is not worth doing so.” , – M. Jurkynas, a political scientist at Vytautas Magnus University, shared his ideas.

“Just being together the peasants mean something else”

Virgis Valentinavičius, associate professor and political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), stated that the current Prime Minister S. Skvernelis does not need to get angry with the leader of the LVŽS.

“What is reasonable for him is to agree with R. Karbauskis. But what is reasonable will not necessarily be done. S. Skvernelis had those prima donna moments before, when he got up and knocked on the door, threatening R. Karbauskis with a separate party. They didn’t agree on something, of course, “he thought.

V. Valentinavičius stated that S. Skvernelis should not be believed politely, because clearly there was no agreement on something.

“Maybe you didn’t agree on a salary? After all, let’s not forget that R. Karbauskis is a man who paid a salary to S. Skvernelis. We don’t know why they got angry. And those kind statements from S. Skvernel don’t they inform us of what really happened between them ”, he stated his position.

The MRU political scientist assured that only the joint work of S. Skvernelis and R. Karbauskis is the basis for a stable LVŽS.

“It is clear that politically both need to be together, because they have been together for 4 years, the value of the political circumstance. And just by being together, the peasants mean something else. And being separated for them is the way to non-existence. I think that sooner or later, like in the past, he will turn around and come back and agree, ”predicted V. Valentinavičius.

The political scientist said that the former head of government was not interested in politics.

“He is a pure administrator, a specialist in teamwork, as he is used to in the police, used to pointing, to command more than to spell and speak. I have no idea how you can create an independent political movement, a party, if it is not a derivative assigned to it. He just doesn’t understand how politics works, he doesn’t care.

And in parliament he is not very interested, we don’t see it. You are only interested in the result: power in your hands. And when we don’t see it, S. Skvernel’s motivation to do something goes down markedly, ”he said. Delphi taught by V. Valentinavičius.

The gap is widening

Delphi recalls that the latest Spinter Research poll found that the National Union of the Homeland, the Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD), is widening the gap with the LVŽS.

According to a poll conducted at the end of January, 18.9% of those polled would vote for TS-LKD and 11.2% for LVŽS.

December data were somewhat more favorable for LVŽS. So 16.4 percent of those polled would have voted for TS-LKD and 14.2 percent for LVŽS.

The LVŽS has the largest faction working in the Seimas, with 32 members of the Seimas.