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“Government measures have helped to alleviate the situation, to avoid short-term liquidity problems, now it can be said that these measures are excessive and generate negative side effects. In many respects, the horses must be stopped, ”Nerijus Mačiulis, Swedbank’s chief economist, told the forum of the Lithuanian Industrial Confederation (LPK), which aims to present the confederation’s proposals to political parties.
“The result is likely to be higher inflation when a large amount of money is absorbed in a very short time.” This is both an inefficient capital allocation, a non-transparent capital allocation and, of course, an overheating of the economy due to insufficient human resources ”, added the economist.
It is true, he said, that some of the risks persist and the tourism sector is unlikely to recover this year or next.
“The tourism sector, hotels is an area where the state makes many efforts to rescue, but, for example, a large part of the measures aimed at stimulating domestic demand in Lithuania is a complete misunderstanding. (…) Let’s say these are additional social benefits, it is not a necessity to stimulate the economy ”, said N. Mačiulis.
He noted that there is optimism in Lithuanian export markets as well, allowing us to expect a quick recovery.
“The situation is still misjudged for various reasons, but there are good reasons to expect a very fast recovery. One reason the spread of the virus is slowing down. The second, third wave is not that dangerous. Another reason is that, unlike the global financial crisis, not all EU countries tightened their fiscal belts, did not look for ways to balance public finances, but began to spend money at a rate that they did not spend, ”said N. Mačiulis .
“(…) The fact that the EU countries dedicate huge financial resources to stimulating the economy is much more important than what we are doing. Because the potential of the Lithuanian economy does not depend on how much we consume here, but on how much we can export. And it depends on our competitiveness and the strength of our export markets, “said the economist.
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