Experts: What does Lukashenko’s “we will not give them the country” mean?

By decision of the Belarusian Parliament, 2020 August 9 is the date of the presidential election. 9.5 million Belarus, which has had a population of President Lukashenko, who ruled with an iron fist, announced last year that he would seek reelection for another term. However, the president said he did not intend to rule the country “forever”. There is no doubt that Lukashenko, 65, will be re-elected for the sixth consecutive term.

The lowest popularity of the year.

Nastasia Jaumen, a journalist for the Russian version of the Delfi portal, said at the beginning of Delfi Day that the popularity of the Belarusian president is currently the lowest in all his years in office.

“The main thing that is happening is that we have never seen such a low popularity rate for Lukashenko.” Sociologists say that perhaps it would be approximately 25 percent or 30 percent; such an indicator may be real, but in 26 years it would be the lowest and worst indicator, “says N. Jaumen in the program.

EHU spokesman Maxim Milta agrees and says that people in Belarus are now much more mobilized.

“All the events we are currently seeing in Belarus show that people are much more mobilized and that the popularity of the Belarusian leader is the lowest throughout his reign.”

Lukashenko’s rhetoric is changing.

Jaumen also mentioned on the show that some changes in the Belarusian leader’s rhetoric could be seen over time.

“Lukashenko’s rhetoric has changed a bit now. If before, for example, 20 years ago, he always said that the opposition has the support of Western hosts, this year he says that everything is happening because of the Moscow puppets, and Then he saw that this argument no longer works and began to say the opposite: “We give them a country.” We will not surrender, “said Jaumen.

When asked if the regime in Belarus could be said to have weakened, the EHU spokesman considered that the West was sometimes provoked by Lukashenko’s rules, as if in reality it was also the guarantor of stability for the West.

“It seems to me that some time ago in this study we were already talking when a new head of government was appointed. We are seeing more and more people with suspenders come to the leadership of one institution or another. These are the people Lukashenko can always trust. For example, if we look at the Security Council in Belarus, it is people like Family who have supported Lukashenko from the beginning, the people Lukashenko has advanced with since 1994.

Even if we sometimes see the level of rhetoric of Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makey, who is trying to manipulate an image such that Belarus is supposedly a geopolitical counterweight and the current regime needs to be maintained, because otherwise Russia will enter Belarus, but let’s be open and let’s see: Russia also eyes: if we talk about military cooperation, exercises, we all remember Zapad’s exercise. Belarus performs the function of the Russian border district. Sometimes Lukashenko’s rules cause the West to play, as if he too was really the guarantor of stability for the West. Naturally, that rhetoric has intensified especially after the annexation of Crimea and the war in Ukraine. Lukashenko tried to play this card to the end, but we should not give in, “Milta said on the show.

True, as the journalist told the show, Lukashenko is not the leader who would realize that it is time to retire.

“You know, he’s definitely not that person. He was full of such opportunities, he said repeatedly,” If people told me to go, I would go. “How many times have we heard people say that everything is tired? Come out,” he says. journalist.

What awaits you after the elections? Two scenarios

When asked to draw a picture that he will be in Belarus after the elections, the interlocutor mentioned two options.

“I would say there are two options. An important and sad thing is that the opposition, as in the last elections, will be overthrown. Another option, I’d like you to wait is that we will have a little box of options when ours silovicas (representatives of power structures) could think if there is a great protest, as we have already said, for example, there are great protests in the province and in the regions. One can hope that silovicas He will say that not everything is going to enter the political process. “

When asked at the end of the program if Lukashenko could still shoot his own people if they took to the streets and demanded that the election results be canceled, the journalist replied yes.

“It just came to our attention then. Unfortunately,” the journalist replied.

Meanwhile, Milta emphasized that in the 26 years there were stories in Belarus in which some politicians or journalists had simply disappeared.

“If we look at Lukashenko’s 26-year history, we know the stories of several politicians and journalists who have disappeared. (…) I have no doubt that people will be massively planted before the shooting,” says an EHU spokesperson. .

“What will Belarus be like on August 10? I think there will be a greater mobilization of society in Belarus,” the interlocutor also replied.