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According to experts, judging by everything, the conservatives themselves are not prepared to transfer the issue of the representation of the EVS from communication that measures only the climate of relationships to a legal logic that can give a real result.
The president is even less likely to agree with the compromise proposed by the Conservatives: to represent the EVS with Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonyte alternately.
After lengthy discussions and epithets from the conservatives, perhaps any withdrawal from the status quo is likely to spell defeat and a loss of the image of an “active president.” And that would perhaps be too high a price for Nausėda, if one is still thinking about the second term of the president.
Tomas Janeliūnas, a professor at the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI), commenting on the gap over EVS between the Presidency and the ruling conservatives last week, was of the opinion that, at least so far, communication on this topic is limited only to a limited extent. According to him, it is unlikely that there will be a real attempt to change the current representation regime of EVS.
According to T. Janeliūnas, it is quite realistic to believe that there is no guaranteed faith in the ranks of the rulers themselves that the ambitions expressed by some conservatives can be realized.
“It was not clear from the outset what the objectives of EVS were. There was only one attempt to see what it could mean, to see what it might end up with. However, this idea has been found to have a lot of support from coalition partners. , and the subject is so interesting for the public that the governors would receive support in such a march against the president ”, commented Professor Eltai.
“Apparently, it is believed that the rulers would probably only be harmed by the legal conflict, in the first place in the sense of reputation. On the other hand, there is no guarantee that the majority of this law (which governs the representation of EVS – ELTA) is compiled and approved by the Seimas. That is, there are many signs that this is not necessarily an initiative doomed to success, “said the TSPMI political scientist.
“All that remains are communicative jokes with some of those accusations. But this probably reflects a more general current dissatisfaction between the Presidency and the ruling majority,” said T. Janeliūnas.
Legal attempts to change representation in the EVS would provoke adverse reactions from the president
According to the professor, in reality, the issue of EVS could only advance if it goes from communication to the legal logic of the action. For example, if conservatives didn’t just talk about laws that change the way EVS is represented, they are actually trying to implement them. However, according to the TSPMI professor, a real form of action on the revision of the representation of the EVS would provoke reactions from the president at a completely different level. The political scientist speculates that in such a case, G. Nausėda, in response to the actions of conservatives, would use his tools both to veto laws relevant to rulers and to block some political decisions in general.
Therefore, I believe that at least in the near future, neither the Government nor the Prime Minister will have a great desire to have a war with the Presidency in addition to all the other problems. As long as this understanding prevails, individual members of the Conservatives will change nothing, “said T. Janeliūnas.
President EVT’s question is crucial: the compromise proposed by the conservatives means defeat for Nausėda
And yet, if the ruling ranks were motivated to make real decisions about the EVS, the president, “out of tension”, should not be expected to accept what the rulers call compromise, that is, the alternate representation of the EVS. The suggestion that, depending on the nature of the problems, either the president or the prime minister should turn to the EVS is likely to be seen in the Presidency not as a tolerable compromise, but as a defeat that could only damage Nausėda’s presidential image. .
G. Nausėda sees herself and presents herself to the public as an active president, so any withdrawal, especially after lengthy discussions, is probably not only undesirable, but also rejected in principle.
The TSPMI professor agrees with this logic. Furthermore, T. Janeliūnas points out that after losing the “EVS issue”, G. Nausėda would hardly be able to maintain the necessary reputation in society, for example to pursue a second term.
“If the president resigns, he will probably no longer be able to regain his reputation as a strong, politically influential head of state for the remainder of his term.
I think the Presidency understands this. For them, this is one of the key issues. For rulers, meanwhile, this is one of the things that can be won or lost. I think, in general terms, that if Nausėda lost, there would also be doubts about the second term. Therefore, in this sense, this issue is very important to the Presidency, ”said T. Janeliūnas.
L. Bielinis believes that conservatives are not comfortable fighting for EVS: the party will soon silence EVS activists
Meanwhile, Professor Lauras Bielinis from Vytautas Magnus University (Vytautas Magnus University) evaluated the friction between the rulers and the Presidency on the issue of representation in the EVS from a different perspective.
According to him, some conservatives raise this issue unreasonably, with little harm to themselves and not to the president. Therefore, according to the political scientist, the ruling party should probably be expected to understand this and eventually withdraw from this initiative.
“I think the whole problem is the issue of the self-expression of a group of conservatives. They see their exposition in this way, they even see its meaning, forging the same nail.
However, in my opinion, this issue, which is why Pavilionis and some others are so intense, doesn’t really have any impact on any serious process, both internally and externally. It is just an indicator of conservative political activity, which is flawed and leading nowhere, ”said L. Bielinis.
“If this political force thinks they are exposing themselves in this way, it should be understood that this exposure is negative in nature for them,” he said.
According to the professor, in Lithuania, regardless of who the president is, political parties often fail to fight with the country’s leader.
“The fight is uncomfortable and dangerous, because any president, be it Nausėda or another head of the country, is generally treated as the main politician in society. Therefore, his attack can have a negative impact,” said the professor, who He predicted that the debate on representation in the EVS should in the long term go unnoticed in principle without tangible results.
“It is possible that the conservatives themselves begin to see that this fight is pointless and does not give any positive results. I believe that in time the current conservative activists will be silenced by the party,” summarized L. Bielinis.
