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Giedrius Česnakas, associate professor at the Lithuanian Military Academy (LKA), is convinced that A. Lukashenko seeks to justify the arrival and permanent presence of the Russian army in Belarus with such statements. Meanwhile, Professor Tomas Janeliūnas from the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI) agrees only partially with such ideas and believes that Lukashenko’s message is more aimed at the Belarusian internal audience to show the need to protect Belarusians from alleged dangers.
“Many people think that Lukashenko wants to legitimize his power by looking for external enemies. However, I would be inclined to think that these statements are a deliberate part of the arrival and permanent presence of the Russian army in Belarus. The need for regular exercises would be met by strengthening the western borders, from which Russia sees the greatest threats to itself, “G. Garlic told Eltai.
“I would see this not only as a kind of distraction for Lukashenko, but as part of the structure of the larger plan,” he added.
The political scientist also emphasizes that, in this situation, Lithuania should not focus on the words of the current leader of Belarus, but on the actions that are being taken.
“We should not focus on what is said, but on what is done. If the Russian army starts participating regularly in the exercise, it will no longer be a problem of rhetoric, it will be a fact that can no longer be ignored. Following this rhetoric, I am afraid that the justification for Russia’s military presence in Belarus may be hidden, ”said the political scientist.
However, G. Česnakas is convinced that the situation in the region is deteriorating in terms of military security. The political scientist believes that Lithuania should negotiate with its allies for greater participation in order to guarantee security in the region.
“It seems to me that we should speak to our allies here about ensuring security and perhaps even their slightly stronger presence in the region. Here, however, there is clearly some tension. Some Western allies, knowing from past experiences, would lean toward reduce their participation in defending the Baltic States. Lithuania should not allow this, there should be a very broad discussion with partners about the real security situation, “said G. Česnakas.
He also added that Lithuania must strengthen its air defense capabilities to achieve greater security. Garlic believes that it is necessary to strengthen the air defense due to the increasing number of provocations from Belarus.
“In my opinion, air defense capabilities need to be monitored and greatly strengthened, as various violations may increase. (…) It seems that the number of such provocations may increase, all other unplanned exercises may increase and I don’t necessarily think that this could turn into some potentially military conflict, but with the increase in rapid exercises, the possibility of starting a military conflict is much easier. “, – the political scientist shared his ideas.
“During the exercise, the armies are very prepared and basically ready to act. Therefore, the exercises can potentially turn into conflicts at any time. Of course, the security situation in Lithuania and the other Baltic countries is not really improving from that, ”he added.
T. Janeliūnas: A. Lukashenko’s statements are addressed to the internal audience of Belarus
However, the political scientist T. Janeliūnas takes a different position and believes that A. Lukashenko’s statements are directed only to the internal audience of Belarus.
“These messages are aimed only at the internal audience, because they need to show determination and the need to protect Belarusians from alleged dangers. Some are already saying that Mr. Lukashenko is completely inappropriate and his decisions are inadequate, showing confusion, such Maybe some exaggerated anxiety. However, I think there is a certain rationality in his actions, so some provocations against NATO countries would be less necessary for Lukashenko now, “said T. Janeliūnas.
The political scientist points out that so far Lukashenko’s speeches have not been accompanied by concrete actions. T. Janeliūnas is convinced that this is just another attempt by the current leader of Belarus to strengthen his authority.
“From what we can see, so far there is no indication that it has ordered the closure of the crossing points, so as not to lose any traveler or car. I imagine these are just rhetorical attempts to further strengthen our authority, ”said T. Janeliūnas.
He also agrees only partially with Garlic’s view that Mr. Lukashenko’s statements seek to justify the arrival and permanent presence of the Russian army in Belarus. The political scientist believes that Lukashenko does not need to invite Russian troops to Belarus as a pretext.
“If Lukashenko really needs additional Russian troops, he would have to justify it in some way. Therefore, a pretext for the need for a Russian army would be sought accordingly. But on the other hand, I would say that in general, Lukashenko probably does not need special pretexts. to summon Russian troops, because according to the agreements of the allied state and the interests of Russia, it would be enough to make a decision that allows Russia to establish permanent bases in Belarus, ” said the political scientist.
“In this regard, I am not sure if it would really need provocations or additional actions for Russian soldiers to enter Belarus. However, there may be options, I would not rule out that possibility, but until we see some more concrete actions by Russia in the military sense, these are just interpretations, “he added.
T. Janeliūnas states that it would not be appropriate so far for Lithuania to respond to A. Lukashenko’s statements. However, the political scientist admits that if information is received from the intelligence services confirming that this means a greater influence of the Russian army in Belarus, Lithuania should respond.
“I think it would be inappropriate to respond to such statements by Lukashenko. On the other hand, if we receive information from the intelligence services that this also means increased influence or activity of the Russian army, then of course we should respond to this and strengthen the NATO forces near the borders of Belarus, “he said.
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