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According to analysts, the main risks this year that could worsen the global situation are the “fragmentation of the United States” after the presidential elections, the high risk of global cyber conflict, the intensification of competition in the fight against climate change and the resignation by Angela Merkel.
The first threat identified – Problems of domestic politics in the United States. According to experts, the addition of Joe Biden will usher in an era in which nearly half of American citizens will consider the country’s leader illegitimate. The report notes that the incumbent President Donald Trump’s refusal to acknowledge the election results is a unique case in US history that only confirms how strongly the United States is divided.
Experts say Biden “will attempt to restore US leadership in the international arena” but “blowing up new hopes for the state” will be hampered by “polarization and an inability to deal with national crises.”
This year’s second big risk, analysts say, a protracted Covid-19 pandemic. A long-lasting pandemic will endanger not only human lives, but also political stability and the global economy. At the same time, the distribution of vaccines will lead to an even greater isolation of the rich from the poor, not only within countries but also among them. This could cause riots in many states. In addition to human lives, the coronavirus will bring economic stability. Not only that, the pandemic “will leave a long list of debts, job losses and a loss of confidence in everything.”
In third place The Eurasia Group has entered the fight against climate change, noting that global cooperation in this area will move into the arena of international competition. The fight against harmful substances will create enormous opportunities for private capital, but the winners and losers will be divided “by market mechanisms as well as by political factors.”
The fourth biggest danger this year there was a confrontation between the United States and China. The situation in this relationship will continue to be complicated by “diplomatic vaccines,” competition on climate change and technology, as well as long-standing disagreements on other issues, analysts are convinced.
Fifth and sixth place Eurasia Group has been listed as a “digital threat”. The work of popular devices can be hampered by restrictions on the free transfer of personal data from one country to another, where it is not known who the final recipient is. Such actions could undermine the very essence of the free flow of data on the Internet. Global cyber conflict can lead to unprecedented technological and geopolitical risks. However, the digital space is “too indescribable” to identify the specific factors that could lead to a large-scale disaster, experts say.
Analysts have also included the problems of the Turkish economy among the main risks looming this year. As a result, President Erdogan’s government will deteriorate and resort to “foreign policy adventures” to improve the mood of national concentration.
There are risks in the Middle East as well, as low oil prices will lower costs in many countries, hitting the already sensitive private sector and increasing unemployment.
There is also talk of the possible resignation of Angela Merkel (who has managed to “give a flexible international response” to emerging crises) and of the political, social and economic crises in Latin America due to elections in some countries and a coronavirus pandemic.
Threats that everyone talks about but not
The Eurasia Group has also identified a series of “targeting maneuvers”, a series of issues that are actively discussed in the media, but which “are unlikely to pose a significant threat or the likelihood of causing instability this year.”
1. “Little friends will find themselves in trouble.” Among those politicians, Eurasia includes Turkish President RT Erdogan, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaru and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Analysts believe that these individuals form a kind of “coalition” of those who do not want to support a “liberal international order.” However, they did not see a major threat to their interests this year.
2. America’s tech giants will be hit. In 2021, the tech giants run the risk of having to pay additional taxes in Europe, as well as “hostility” in the United States itself. In reality, however, “they will be saved because of the complexity of the problems they face.”
3. United States-Iran confrontation. The relationship between the two countries will not be as productive or threatened by many experts, analysts from the Eurasia group believe. They believe that the diplomacy of both sides will not be “easy” and that both will try to act without haste.
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