Expert: The additional scenario of the events in Belarus is already clear

L. Jonavičius wrote in the entry that the future scenario of events in Belarus is already clear.

1. “Alexander Lukashenko remains in power.
2. Mr. Lukashenko begins the process of amending the Constitution of Belarus. This is likely to be done through Parliament, although some articles (redistribution of powers) require a referendum.
3. The Coordinating Council of the Opposition is not involved in the process. Unless at some point in the future, it is sterilized and turned into a “stamping” organ in favor of Lukashenko.
4. Protesters and those taking to the streets are essentially voiceless because they are manipulated from the outside (the West).
5. If there is an attempt to storm state institutions, Russia will help to recover.
6. Russia will (probably) help rewrite the Constitution. This is signaled by Putin’s allusion to the already established “law enforcement reservation”. It probably doesn’t just involve force structures.
7. An interesting sign is that Russia is ready to “help” if any of the opposing parts of Belarus (ie Mr. Lukashenko himself) [Rusijos požiūriu] action. They could include a new overcrowding, possibly leading to a “color revolution”, and possible attempts by Lukashenko to maneuver more. It is also a signal to Mr Lukashenko that his behavior must be in the interest of Moscow.

Generally speaking, V. Putin told A. Lukashenko that if the latter is too arbitrary, the Kremlin reserves the right to remove it … “, L. Jonavičius wrote on Facebook.
He considered that with the constitutional reform, “it is likely that the levers of power will be rebalanced in favor of Parliament, a pro-Russian ruling party will emerge and Belarus will remain under the full control of Moscow, but with a formally democratized political system. After 5 years (and maybe even earlier), Lukashenko is quietly retiring to a well-deserved vacation. “

We recall that Putin announced on Thursday that Russia had formed a reserve group of law enforcement officers that would be deployed to Belarus if the situation worsened.

“It will not be used unless the situation starts to spiral out of control,” unless “extremist elements … start burning cars, houses and banks, start occupying administrative buildings,” Putin said.

Lukashenko threatened retaliatory sanctions against Lithuania and Poland

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Friday he was ready to announce retaliatory sanctions against Lithuania and Poland, which plan to take action against the authoritarian leader on suspicion of election fraud and police violence against protesters.

“It just came to our knowledge then. If they [lietuviai ir lenkai] it still flew to China and Russia via us, now it will fly via the Baltic Sea or the Black Sea to trade with Russia and the like. About sanctioned products [kuriems Rusiją yra paskelbusi embargą] – Let’s not even dream. We will show them what the sanctions mean, ”Lukashenko told the state news agency BelTA.

It stated that Belarus would refuse to use Lithuanian ports for the export of its products, through which mainly potassium salt and petroleum products are exported.

“I have already instructed the government to submit proposals on all flows of goods from Lithuanian ports to others. Here we will see how they will live. 30 percent The Lithuanian budget is made up of the flows of our goods through Lithuania. What more is needed? “We will put him in his place,” Lukashenko said.

Several European Union foreign ministers, including heads of Baltic diplomacy, on Thursday called for tougher sanctions on the Lukashenko regime.

About 1,000 protesters held marches in Minsk, arresting about 100 protesters

About 100 people, including more than 10 journalists, were arrested in Minsk on Thursday night at Independence Square near the Red Church, where the protest is taking place.

Radio Svoboda (Freedom Radio) correspondent Alehas Hruzdilovičius and cameraman Andrejus Rabčykas were arrested during the live broadcast on Independence Square.

A little later, the Belarusian Journalists Association reported that about 10 more journalists had been detained in Independence Square.

According to the portal tut.by, officials of the force structures demanded that journalists not film the events in the square.

Protesters in March held marches from the Orthodox Cathedral of the Holy Spirit in Freedom Square to the Red Catholic Church in Independence Square.

Witnesses said that about a thousand people with banners and banners participated in the protest. Passing drivers meant supporting them by pressing beeps.

Furthermore, protesters are arrested. Officers surrounded the protesters at the Red Church, optionally taking the men into vans to transport the detainees.

According to the Viasna Human Center, a total of almost 100 people were arrested in Minsk.

“97 people have been arrested today in Minsk during a peaceful protest,” the NGO said in a renewed statement.

Viasna provided a list of detainees, including arrested journalists.

Thursday’s action is related to the events that occurred the day before in the Plaza de la Independencia. On Wednesday night, Belarusian forces broke up a protest in Independence Square and the Red Church imprisoned about 100 people for about 30 to 40 minutes. The officers set up their post at the entrance to the house of prayer. Some participants in the campaign were arrested.

The actions of the officials sparked outrage in the leadership of the Belarusian Catholic Church. Tadeusz Kondrusevich, archbishop of Minsk-Magilev, metropolitan, president of the Belarusian Conference of Catholic Bishops, called the actions of the power structures on the church’s territory “inappropriate and illegal” and demanded an investigation into them.

Protests against the results of the presidential elections on August 9 continue in Belarus for the third consecutive week. The current president, Alexander Lukashenko, who has held office since 1994, was declared the winner of the elections.