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Even his fellow Kremlin critics have warned the 44-year-old activist that it is too dangerous for him to return to Russia from Berlin, where he was treated for months after trying to poison him with a nerve paralyzing substance, Navaln. and Western capitals blame the attack Russian President Vladimir Putin.
However, A. Navalnas, convinced that it could survive as a political force only when inside the country, ignored his advice.
His dramatic return forced the Kremlin to adopt a defensive posture. The tensions are completely undesirable now that the elections await the fall and control is expected to be established through them.
‘A. Navaln’s plan is very simple: to become Putin’s biggest headache and his courage to inspire political activism, said Fyodor Kraseninikov, a political consultant with close ties to Kremlin critics. “If he had decided not to return, Putin could have celebrated victory.”
According to supporters, such a strategy could work even if Navaln were imprisoned for more than a year, which they believe is highly likely.
The main opponent of the Russian leader hopes that this year he can bring enough followers to the streets and show that they are not intimidated. At the same time, he hopes that the West, which has gained a new burst of energy since the inauguration of US President Joe Biden, will exert external pressure on the Kremlin.
This is a risky game.
Bitches for a long time
Currently, the Kremlin is determined to keep Navalna in prison for at least a few years, if not longer, abandoning previous practices when he hasn’t been in the ground for more than a few weeks, say two sources closely linked to the leadership, who do not want to reveal his identity due to non-public debate.
During February 2. R. Navaln can be sentenced to a year and a half in the first court hearing scheduled for the next ten years, and faces another ten years in prison in another case.
According to sources, the Kremlin’s belief that Navaln is acting on behalf of Western governments has prompted a tougher line; denies the accusation. At the same time, ongoing protests in Belarus, despite brutal efforts by the leader of the Russian-backed authoritarian regime, Alexander Lukashenko, to quell them, have raised concerns about public protests, they say. Authorities hope Navalno’s highly personalized move will lose its way when he is in prison.
So far this has not happened. The new video, which he and his team circulated on YouTube on Tuesday, showing the luxurious Black Sea palace, which they claim belongs to Putin, was viewed by more than 40 million people in the first two days. times, a record number. The Kremlin denies that the palace belongs to Putin.
The activist and his allies hope his case will intensify public discontent that is already on the rise. 4 percent Putin’s ratings fell to record lows last year as real revenues fell and quarantines imposed due to the coronavirus pandemic continued. They point to the September parliamentary elections as an opportunity to send a signal of widespread public discontent.
A poll conducted by the Levada Center last fall found that 20 percent Russians support Navaln’s activities, despite its negative coverage in state media. Half of the respondents expressed the opposite opinion.
Support for Putin
“There will be no urgent steps, but the erosion of the regime will certainly accelerate,” Kraseninikov said. “Such a stressful situation will force Putin and those around him to make mistakes.”
Of course, the old Kremlin predictions that the Putin support bubble will burst anytime soon are unlikely to materialize. Polls show that support for the president remains strong.
An early opponent tester waits Saturday as Navaln’s allies plan to hold rallies in dozens of cities.
The authorities have already warned against issuing permits for the actions, and they have already arrested at least one organizer of the rallies, but in addition, they have taken steps to block the sites that advertise rallies.
While the confrontation with Navaln may provoke public anger over Putin’s long rule, it may serve the Kremlin’s efforts to dismantle the most persistent opposition movement. The latest test, which led to billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s imprisonment in 2003 after meeting Putin, sent a signal that he would not tolerate any disregard for his authority.
“Russia is now more effective in fighting the regime from prison than in exile,” said Khodorkovsky, who was forced to leave Russia in 2013 after serving a prison sentence. His case is also instructive: he also returned from abroad knowing he would be arrested, but underestimated the decisive ambitions of the Kremlin.
“I thought they would put me down for a maximum of three or four years, and I spent a full ten years in prison,” he said.
Fight dissidents
The Kremlin has called for legal amendments that include new sanctions for critics, as well as a possible blocking of foreign social media, which has become an important organizing tool.
Navaln supporters have so far failed to demonstrate the strength of the activists in Belarus, who have been protesting for months despite beatings and arrests. Western criticism is limited to rhetoric. A top European diplomat will travel to Moscow in February, the first such visit in four years, despite calls from some capitals to postpone it.
However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel renewed calls for Navalna’s immediate release on Thursday, citing that her case was once again high on the agenda of many Western countries. His comments fueled a slight depreciation of the ruble and worried investors about possible penalties, Rabobank notes.
“It’s unbelievable that Putin can be so scary for a person,” Antony Blinken, a US President Joe Biden nominated secretary of state candidate, told senators this week. “In my opinion, that says a lot, and the voice of Mr. Navaln is, I believe, the voice of millions of Russians, and his voice should be heard.”
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