Expert: If all restrictions were lifted, the number of cases would again reach around 3,000 per day.

The data scientist told the show that for some, the third image of the third wave of the choroanvirus will be shown this week.

“It just came to our notice then. Because we had a wave a couple of weeks ago: a week of growth, a week of decline. Now we have the carpet of the week, we’ll see. What will happen this week? If it continues this week ( the number of cases, aut. P.), means that there will be a very serious sign that the situation is getting worse, “said the interlocutor of the program.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius explained that it is not possible to say exactly who is to blame for the increase in cases from the available data.

“It’s sad, we don’t have (data, aut. P.) and we can’t say exactly why this is so. What can we say, exactly where it spreads. We have such an interesting situation, when the situation in Lithuania is partly improving and deteriorating in part. Unfortunately, a significant part of Lithuania is deteriorating. Somewhere, a million people live in municipalities where the situation has worsened in a month.

This is an alarming sign. With an epidemic it’s like this: if it gets worse somewhere, sooner or later it will start to get worse everywhere. Unfortunately there are two speeds so far: one side is getting better, the other is getting worse. But without continuing to break this deterioration in those municipalities where the situation is bad, expecting it to improve in other places would be illogical, ”said the data researcher.

He agreed that the situation still improves a little due to the traffic restrictions still in force in more than ten municipalities in the country.

“It just came to our attention then. (…) What is worrying is that there have been movement restrictions in the past. But the situation in those municipalities is getting worse. This is the question why,” said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

The data scientist program also asked what would happen if the cabinet decided to lift all current quarantine restrictions.

The interlocutor said that the number of cases registered per month per day could even triple.

“It just came to our notice then. If we lifted all the restrictions without any further action, that would be what it was in the fall. The cases would continue to grow and we would get to a situation where we have about 3,000 cases a day. The only difference is that the weather is improving now. That is probably our peak until the weather improves. It is in which month of the 500 cases per day that we have now, we can see if we are free to see around 1,500.

And then the weather improvement scenario will turn on and then it will decrease. But the growing number of cases is related to deaths and hospital fillings, which we probably wouldn’t want to do, “he said.

V. Zemlys – Balevičius assured in the “Delfi rytas” program that it is necessary to change the coronavirus management strategy.

“The tightening of the quarantine is such that the restrictions are already visible to the public. They need to be motivated and talk about additional tools, like the dissemination of evidence or something else. Because we need to change our strategy. Because the current strategy of staying in the place for a month does not work.

Something needs to be done. If the situation will get worse, considering the British variety and the fact that there are a million people living where the situation is getting worse, it is quite likely that it will get worse all over Lithuania, ”he shared his forecasts.

The data scientist said that if there are many municipalities in the black quarantine scenario, there should be a tightening of restrictions there.

And if the situation worsens, the government has defined its black scenarios, which are a total quarantine. We can see that there are a couple of municipalities in them, if there are more municipalities that will comply with the black scenario, we will really have to think about tightening the restrictions in those municipalities.

Because scenario D means that the usual methods do not work, it is necessary to introduce restrictions that would help to organize: to establish contacts and other things ”, said the data scientist V. Zemlys – Balevičius in the program“ Delfi rytas ”.

The data scientist said that the immunity already available to the country’s population in case of illness or vaccination would lead to a milder third wave, if any.

“It just came to our attention then. There would probably be deaths (less, aut. P.) because the highest risk groups are vaccinated. Therefore, the effect of deaths would be less. But 17 percent (immunity, aut. P.) is still very low.

For us to see the effects of the decline, we would need at least 50 percent to have that immunity. And now studies are popping up that even with 85 percent of the public vaccinated, it is said that you still have to be careful: masks, distances. Because, unfortunately, the virus is spreading ”, stated V. Zemlys – Balevičius on the program“ Delfi rytas ”.