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Political scientists evaluated the chances of the Social Democrats in the next elections, pointed out the strange paradoxes characteristic of the party and highlighted what mistakes it is better not to make.
Will it catch refugees?
Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, Member of the European Parliament (EP), Liutauras Gudžinskas, Associate Professor at the Institute for International Relations and Political Sciences (VU TSPMI), Vitalijus Mitrofanovas, Mayor of Akmenė District Municipality, and Juozas Olekas, MEP, are running for the elections to the president of the Social Democratic Party.
According to communication expert Mindaugas Lapinskas, people who participate in the elections of the party president are nominated for different reasons.
“The political scientist L. Gudžinskas probably wants to start with the Olympic principle” It is important to participate, not win “, to improve his positions, because it is not very realistic to expect that he will be chosen by that party.
On the other side are J.Olekas and V.Blinkevičiūtė; When it is very difficult for you, you look at what was 20 years ago and you think that if I did everything the same as then, the situation would improve now.
Probably, the Social Democrats think that their electorate is not dead or frustrated with politics, but simply went to the peasants, so they calculate which of these people could be more attractive to their refugees ”, considered M. Lapinskas.
The communication expert said that he believed that V. Blinkevičiūtė and J. Olekas had a better chance of winning in this case, however, V. Mitrofanov would promise the biggest change.
“V. Mitrofanov, being quite modern, not necessarily left-wing, but economical and practical, if he really wanted to become president, campaigning would probably signal the biggest change for the Social Democrats.
I would not write it even considering that it is probably not well known by the general population, it is important that there is a desire, ”he emphasized.
Distance problems
Rima Urbonaitė, a political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), said she believed that the main fight should take place between V. Blinkevičiūtė and J. Olekas, however, most departments nominated J. Olekas.
“It may be due to the fact that V.Blinkevičiūtė has been quite far from the party for a long time: he is a shining star of the Social Democrats, who always boasts in the rankings, but does not warm the party and the party voters very much. It is its small disadvantage.
J. Olekas has had more contact lately, although he has been in the European Parliament for some time, which creates a certain distance, but V. Linkevičiūtė has been there much longer, ”said the political scientist.
According to her, the main problem – although the election is new, but the candidates – no. “There is L. Gudžinskas, who can be considered a very knowledgeable political scientist, but the question is how much a popular politician can become. He hasn’t been to the party long enough to have been able to build muscle, even though the parties don’t really hurt, there’s no question about it, “said R. Urbonaitė.
Virgis Valentinavičius, a political scientist at the Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), also highlighted the departure of V. Blinkevičiūtė and J. Olekas from the party; According to him, the success of these candidates will depend on whether they return from the European Parliament.
“Leadership from afar is not very possible; let’s remember how Gabriel Landsbergis, who was elected president, disappointed everyone by delaying his return from Brussels. I don’t think that helped the coherence of his party’s relations either. In this case, you can repeat the same story, “said V. Valentinavičius.
According to V.Valentinavičius, although V.Blinkevičiūtė and J.Olekas are the most realistic candidates to win, V.Mitrofanovas has authority in the party. At that time, L. Gudžinskas, although he had demonstrated his loyalty to the ideals of social democracy, had a modest experience of royal politics.
Hope did not ignite
Evaluating the probability that potential LSDP presidents will improve the results of the last elections, M. Lapinskas stated that the idea of the left in Lithuania does not have good prospects.
“I doubt that V.Blinkevičiūtė and J.Olekas are people who can carry me forward: they are more straw or an inflatable wheel that you grab so as not to drown, and not a kayak or a jet ski that you can shoot forward and overtake other matches. ”, Compared M. Lapinskas.
A communications specialist wonders how a party whose values are supported by roughly 50 percent works. Lithuanians cannot attract voters.
“The Social Democrats are a bit of a strange party, as people can’t sell water in a hot, sunburned desert. In fact, a large part of the Lithuanian people is, in a sense, on the left: they want more social justice, perhaps more redistribution. However, the Social Democrats have not been able to take advantage of this at all lately.
While this sounds paradoxical, they should raise a clearer flag of left-wing thinking, which Paluck tried, albeit unsuccessfully, and try to attract a typical left-wing voter by raising that flag. And, look, another half of the electorate of the Freedom Party will fall, because there will probably be many people among them who support the ideas of the left: there is not a single hipster who talks and looks modern on the left, “he said.
The political scientist R. Urbonaitė also stated that she doubted that the new leader would give much hope to the Social Democratic Party; According to her, the LSDP is characterized by the problem of the growth of leaders: although the party is very large, its activity is quite low.
“Does the party have a lot of room here for new hopes? I’d probably look at it cautiously: no new stars have risen, no bright new leaders. The question arises as to whether these elections will pave the way for some other quality of party leadership and other outcomes. The new elections will begin in 2023, starting with the municipal elections, and there will definitely be something to do here, ”said R. Urbonaitė.
The departments also nominated the candidates of former LSDP president Gintautas Paluckas, the mayor of Jonava Mindaugas Sinkevičius and the Union of Social Democratic Women, a member of Seimas Orinta Leiputė. These politicians refused to participate in the elections.
“It is very risky to assume the role of party chairman at this time; in other words, the chances that it will be successful are not very high. To be successful it will take a long, black job, but the question remains whether the voters will succeed. They will appreciate it. In terms of career, the prospect would not be very bright, “said the political scientist.
The greatest opportunity for the Social Democrats now, according to R. Urbonaitė, is to present themselves as an alternative both to the peasants and to the current ruling coalition, as well as to strengthen their identity and strengthen the work of the members of the divisions.
Dangerous movement
Political scientist V. Valentinavičius is convinced that this would be a dangerous step for the party after the Social Democrats previously announced that they would consider joining the Peasant-Workers Coalition Agreement after their election.
“The objective of R. Karbauskis is to monopolize the left back. I can hardly imagine how R. Karbauskis would admit the Social Democrats into the opposition coalition, giving them the opportunity to participate in the work of the opposition on an equal footing, because his objective is to consolidate all forces, which means eating small parties of the left.
And the task of the Social Democrats is to resist this pressure and maintain their status as the most important political force on the left. If this is achieved, it is dangerous to join joint activities with R. Karbauskis, whose positions are stronger so far ”, the political scientist evaluated.
For his part, M. Lapinskas said that the new party leader should not want to join the peasants and workers.
“The new leader will first have to mark his political territory. A new leader, whoever he is, is possible with almost 100 percent. The chances of saying that they will start with quite radical rhetoric, will lead to quite bold and vivid initiatives, showing thus to the friends of the party that there is a strong one, full of ideas. This would also show other politicians and competitors from the left flank that a new commander has arrived and from now on everything will be different “, predicted M. Lapinskas.
