Erdogan is conducting a “review” of Turkey’s borders: the words are already changing the words

While it may appear to some analysts that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will resign due to the diplomatic response and military mobilization, a more general picture shows that RT Erdogan is ready to attack for both ideological and populist reasons and will continue to do so until find out where. a small military investment can bring the greatest benefits.

One of the possible points to follow is Famagusta. After Cyprus regained its independence, Famagusta, especially the southern Varosha district, became a tourist attraction, attracting representatives of the European and Western elites with its clean beaches and hotels. But it all ended when the Turks invaded in 1974. First they bombed the city and forced most of its inhabitants to flee and then occupied it. The people of Famagusta hoped to return after the bombing, but never did.

Varosha has become a ghost town with billions of dollars in real estate that is fenced in and empty, and its former residents will never return, writes Michael Rubin, a researcher and resident at the American Enterprise Institute, The National Interest.

Generations of diplomats hoped that the return of Famagusta and its people would become one of the most important elements of any peace conversation on Cyprus. The fact that the Turks left Varosha empty gave Cypriot, Western European and United Nations diplomats hope that Ankara was still interested in resolving the Cyprus conflict.

But now RT Erdogan is signaling that Turkey can take unilateral measures to host and develop Varosha. RT Erdogan doesn’t just want to show his strength after resigning in the recent maritime conflict with Greece. Katu, with his main backers, could soon receive billions of dollars: it will be Turkish state funds and most likely funds from the sale of stolen resources from Turkey. This is money to renovate apartment buildings and hotels that, after five decades of parking, will likely be demolished and replaced with new ones.

This can be seen as the Turkish version of China’s “cut salami” tactic. RT Erdogan has long argued that the border treaties with Turkey should be reviewed and that Varosha’s accommodation would turn his words into action.

However, the problem does not only exist in Cyprus or the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey has troops in Syria and Iraq. He is also involved in the military campaign in Libya and recently participated in Azerbaijan. Most worryingly, Turkey’s new way of operating involves the use of Syrian mercenaries. Most are veterans of the Islamic State or have ties to al Qaeda. In fact, Turkey uses Syrian militants in the same way that Iran uses the Lebanese Hezbollah or similar Afghan and Pakistani paramilitary groups. The fact that Turkey is rapidly drawing Syrian militants into various conflicts reflects Turkey’s desire to broaden the geography of its interventions while at the same time completely convincingly denying their involvement.

However, Turkey is not only demonstrating military might, it is also becoming increasingly aggressive towards dissidents abroad. Earlier this year, a Turkish intelligence agent arrived at a police station in Austria and said that the Turkish intelligence service had ordered him to assassinate a former member of the Australian parliament of Kurdish origin.

September 25 Three unidentified individuals attacked Abdullah Bozkurt in Stockholm, perhaps Turkey’s best known dissident journalist, who had previously worked for the Fethullah Gülen-linked Zaman newspaper, even before RT Erdogan took brutal action against the movement Gülen. Although Turkey has previously encouraged attacks on dissidents and the opposition, including in Washington, attacks on European politicians and attacks on such prominent journalists as Bozkurt show that RT Erdogan’s aggression has reached a new level.

The reaction of the United States and Europe so far has been limited, which only further encourages the aggression of RT Erdogan. Like Vladimir Putin in Russia and Xi Jinping in China, he believes that the West is weak and can impose its conditions on them. Although his power is not yet close to that of politicians, he already feels the weakness of both Europe and the United States.

The main problem in Europe, and as a follow-up in the United States, is Germany. Angela Merkel does not want to impose significant sanctions on Turkey because her country fears three things. Diplomats say in private conversations that Merkel fears Turkey may use refugees to incite violence in Germany, or that RT Erdogan may incite Germany’s largest Turkish ethnic community.

This is convenient for those in the US State Department who want to thwart efforts to hold Turkey accountable for their actions. Instead of unilaterally imposing sanctions on Turkish officials and companies responsible for violating Kirpo or Greek territorial waters, mid-level US diplomats say they want to impose sanctions only in conjunction with the European Union, knowing that Germany will essentially block their implementation.

As a result, Pompeo may speak harshly about Turkey’s regional aggression from the seventh floor of the State Department, but in practice his European and Eurasian affairs office is withholding actions against Turkey, so Erdogan believes he will not receive any response. to his aggression.

The eastern Mediterranean is a dangerous hotbed. Wars rarely arise solely from resources. They are often caused by overconfidence. Turkey is behaving in essentially the same way Iraq did in the early 1990s: RT Erdogan, like Saddam Hussein, sees his country’s economy collapse and admits that he will not be able to divert attention from its poor governance and decisions. Like Hussein, he sees neighbors as valuable resources and believes that the international community is a harmless adversary.

In 1990, Hussein managed to shake the teeth of American ambassador April Glaspie to divert her attention from her ambitions. In 2020, RT Erdogan has the same privileged ambassador James Jeffrey. Turkey’s recent escalation in the region shows that RT Erdogan’s ambitions are out of control. The question for Washington, Berlin and Brussels is whether the United States and Europe want to quell these ambitions before RT Erdogan acts, or whether they will wait until the solution to the problem is much more expensive for the Turks and others in the eastern Mediterranean.

Northern Cyprus opens a city that has been closed for many decades

Only the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognized by Turkey, opens on Thursday a city closed decades ago, claimed by Greek Cypriots.

Turkish forces once encircled the popular resort of Varosha when Greek Cypriots fled after Turkey entered northern Cyprus in 1974.

This move could further increase tensions between Turkey and Cyprus and between Turkey and Greece. Recently, the conflict between the countries has intensified over gas resources in the Mediterranean.

Turkey occupied the northern part of Cyprus in 1974. Northern Cyprus Prime Minister Ersin Tatar announced the opening of Varosha on Tuesday after speaking with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

This has been criticized not only by the EU country Cyprus and the Community itself. One of Tatar’s coalition partners also withdrew from the government: Foreign Minister Kudrest Özersay resigned.

Presidential elections will be held in northern Cyprus on Sunday. Both T. Tatar and K. Özersay are fighting current leader Mustafa Akcinis.

Withdrawn the energy resources exploration vessel.

A Turkish ship conducting reconnaissance work returned from disputed waters near Cyprus on Monday, a website that monitors the ship’s movements said.

Last month, the Turkish navy announced that the Yavyz would remain in eastern Mediterranean waters southwest of Cyprus until October 12.

However, Vessel Finder, a vessel monitoring site, said the ship had left the disputed area on Sunday and entered the Turkish port of Tashuju early Monday morning.

Turkey has not issued a formal statement on the matter.

This withdrawal may be related to RT Erdogan’s preparations for a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Ankara. Turkey’s dispute with Greece and Cyprus over maritime borders and energy rights is scheduled to be discussed at the meeting.

NATO members Greece and Turkey have caused tensions in the military alliance by holding separate military exercises in August to back up their claims on the disputed territories and energy resources there.

Tensions eased a bit last month, and the parties agreed to resume direct talks in Istanbul for the first time since 2016. A date for the negotiations was not announced, however.

Last month, Turkey returned its reconnaissance ship Oruc Reis to the country’s southern coast after a month-long resource exploration near a Greek island, where it was accompanied by warships.

RT Erdogan later said that if Turkey retired its ship, “we would give diplomacy a chance.”

EU leaders warned Ankara on Friday that it could impose sanctions on Turkey if it continues to explore gas fields in the disputed waters.

Last week, NATO helped its neighbors establish a military hotline to help prevent accidental clashes in the eastern Mediterranean.

Last Thursday, Stoltenberg, introducing a “dispute resolution mechanism”, said that it would “provide space for diplomatic efforts to resolve the substantive dispute, and we are ready to move forward.”

On Tuesday, the NATO secretary general will visit Athens to meet with Greek Prime Minister Kiriakos Micotaki.