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For two decades, there has been great opposition between the two neighbors of the South Caucasus over the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh, in southwest Azerbaijan, which was captured by the Armenian separatists in the last decade of the last century. human lives
The resurgence of fighting since Sunday has fueled fears that conflict in the troubled South Caucasus region could escalate sharply.
A comprehensive war between these former Soviet republics could have broader consequences and pit rivals in the region, Russia and Turkey.
Azerbaijan reported that seven of its soldiers, including Major General and Colonel, and one civilian were killed on Tuesday. Armenia has announced that four of its soldiers have been killed; So far, Yerevan has reported no casualties during the clashes.
Reuters / Scanpix photo / Artillery guns
A total of 16 people have been killed in clashes since Sunday. Azerbaijanis reported 11 dead and one civilian dead, while Armenians reported four dead.
The latest fighting has broken out far from Nagorno-Karabakh and is taking place directly between the two Caucasus states, which is rare.
With the outbreak of fighting on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, several hundred kilometers from Nagorno-Karabakh, the United States, the European Union and Russia have called for peace.
The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry said Armenian forces attacked their positions in the northern Towwuzh region on Tuesday with artillery, mortars and machine guns. According to the ministry, several villages in the area were also demolished.
Shushan Stepanian, spokesman for the Armenian Defense Ministry, accused the Azerbaijani forces of reopening fire on the northeast border of Tavush province.
Baku’s Revenge
Turkey, an ally of Azerbaijan, competing with Russia for influence in this strategically important region, has expressed its support for Baku.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry accused Armenia of “aggressive nationalism” and promised “to continue supporting Azerbaijan’s fight to protect its territorial integrity to the best of its ability.”
Elhan Shahinoglu, an Azerbaijani political analyst, said the probability of a large-scale war is now “very high.”
“The Azerbaijani general and Baku’s revenge were killed,” he said. “Many in Azerbaijan are demanding the transfer of hostilities to Karabakh.”
But Armenian analyst Hakob Badalian said that a comprehensive war is highly unlikely.
“Baku and Yerevan, as well as the region’s geopolitical powers (Russia and Turkey), do not want a major war that they know will have catastrophic consequences,” he said, adding that neither country had a clear chance of winning a long conflict. .
According to the analyst, four years ago Azerbaijan had a military advantage over its neighbor, but then Armenia “restored the balance” by buying modern Russian weapons.
Stagnant negotiations
In April 2016, during the four days of intense fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, which was the largest outbreak of violence in decades, only turning into a real war, dozens of people died on both sides.
Negotiations over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, mediated by diplomats from the Minsk Group of France, Russia and the United States, have largely stalled since the 1994 ceasefire agreement.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Soldiers of Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenia, which controls the disputed region, is satisfied status quo Nagorno-Karabakh. The current situation also interests Russia, as it would allow the Kremlin to influence these former Soviet republics.
Moscow has formed a military alliance with Armenia, where it has its own base but supplies billions of dollars (euros) to both Yerevan and Baku.
Energy-rich Azerbaijan, whose military spending exceeds the entire Armenian state budget, has repeatedly threatened to take control of Nagorno-Karabakh by force.
Armenia has promised to crush any military offensive.
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