Dream Coalition of “Peasants”: “Invertebrate” V. Uspaskich will have to be bowed and the Conservatives will be turned to flour

Speaking to journalists on Tuesday, LVLS Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis said he was discussing support for the party with both the Social Democrats (LSDP) and the Labor Party, adding that he still had hopes of forming a center coalition. left after the elections.

R. Karbauskis marks the script

LVŽS President Ramūnas Karbauskis declared that in the second round it is necessary to win at least 24 seats.

“The Social Democrats have a good chance in some rural municipalities. We believe that the Social Democrats can add seven more seats. The Labor Party can certainly add one, if not two. Three, probably, the Social Democratic Labor Party should achieve, the Polish election campaigns (LLRA-KŠS) – another advantage. This is a realistic scenario of what could happen in the second round, “predicted the politician.

Gabrielius Landsbergis, chairman of the Lithuanian Christian National-Democratic Union (TS-LKD), which garnered the most support during the first round, avoided talking about the future coalition and did not answer the question of whether it is possible without the Labor Party.

However, he stressed that in some countries the support of the “workers” in the second round will be very important.

The Labor Party has yet to officially announce who it will support. Party member Mindaugas Puidokas, speaking with 15 minutes, leans to the left.

V. Uspaskich: the right doesn’t seem to need help

V.Uspaskich, who took part in the public broadcaster’s “LRT Forum” program a little earlier, said that he thought the right-wing Labor Party didn’t even need support.

I don’t think we make any gold.

“Voters have expressed their desire for the center-right position quite clearly, and this is demonstrated by the good results of both the liberal and conservative parties.

It seems to me that these three parties do not need help if they put their strategy in order in the second round. I’m not even saying, I don’t think we are a golden thing, ”commented the politician.

He said that he was waiting for an invitation from other parties to negotiate, but that it was not in positions but in program provisions. If no agreement is reached, the Labor Party, according to V. Uspaskich, would remain in the opposition without any problem.

“We will not seek any position, it will be more useful for me to implement some of the provisions of the program: regional policy and investment environment – it is necessary. If we succeed, we will support it,” the leader stated the conditions.

Aušrinė Armonaitė, the president of the Freedom Party, received his wishes during the same program.

“Dawn is a discovery in this election. Today, she is in great danger of hurting herself or becoming a great leader in our Lithuanian political heaven,” said V. Uspaskichas.

R.Urbonaitė: LVŽS will have to take over all the mandates

This episode did not pass through the eyes of the political scientist of the Mykolas Romeris University, Rima Urbonaitė.

“Listen V.Uspaskich – will you really go with R. Karbauskis? After such a bow to the ground before Dawn and saying that I too am almost a liberal? The” workers “, as Victor said yesterday, are complete invertebrates who will go where the wind blows. V. Uspaskich will see who feels more comfortable with him “, he considered.

The “workers” are complete invertebrates that will go where the wind blows.

R. Urbonaitė affirmed that the right – TS-LKD, Freedom Party and Liberal Movement – can win so many mandates that it will not be necessary to negotiate with the Labor Party, but the “peasants” will not be able to avoid it.

“Not 100%, but I think V.Uspaskich would join R. Karbauskis. Although the question is who will offer what. Because if R.Uspaskich becomes a cornerstone for R. Karbauskis, and it seems that it becomes natural for R. they will receive more positions on this side, and the positions will be more important to them, “said the political scientist and urged not to take seriously the speeches of V. Uspaskich on the provisions of the program.

“It is an invertebrate. It all depends on where you benefit the most, ”he said without curtains.

For the “peasants” to form a coalition, the conservatives must face a complete tragedy or a fiasco in the second round, said R. Urbonaitė: “I am not saying that R. Karbauskis has no chance of forming a center-left coalition But they are certainly inferior. There must be an incredible right-wing fiasco in single-member constituencies. “

“We will have to take each mandate and there will be interesting duels,” added the political scientist.

Left-wing voters can get slow

He noted that the “peasant” and conservative candidates will meet in 26 single-member electoral districts, and the LVŽS is unlikely to win in all of them.

“It just came to my attention then. The ‘peasants’ are not on the wave it was in 2016. After all, the party’s evaluation – in a multi-member lags behind the Conservatives by 7% – said R Urbonaitė. – I am not saying that this is directly correlated with the second round in a single member, but it reflects a certain sentiment of the voters. It will not be the case that the “peasants” sweep everything “.

It will not be the case that the “peasants” sweep everything up.

And the potential partners of LVŽS – “workers” and LSDP – neither, according to her, will significantly increase the basket of mandates.

His chances of lifting the basket of the left are not very high, not to mention the “workers”, whose candidates came out two, and one of them – with the “peasant” Algimantas Dumbrava. It seems to me that he will really win ”, considered the political scientist.

After seeing the results of the first round of the elections, voters may have had the initial impression that the government will be made up of conservatives, which, according to R. Urbonaitė, may deter voters from left-wing parties from vote in general.

“They may not even want to come anymore,” he said.

Both the misleading LSDP and the doomed Labor Party are adequate

R. Urbonaitė also recalled the previous words of R. Karbauskis: even a week ago he deceived the Social Democrats and equated them with the Conservatives, who should not be elected, and today they rely on them.

In 2016, the president of LVŽS explained that he would not join the coalition with the condemned Labor Party., and now there are no obstacles to that.

“It is clear what the word of politicians is worth, I let the voters decide,” added R. Urbonaitė.

And what will the “peasants” do to achieve the conservative fiasco?

“The peasant strategy is already visible: in addition to ‘the conservatives are evil’, another element has been added: if they don’t elect us or, similarly, the Social Democrats, they will have a gay revolution, a torn Lithuania, etc. Basically, this is another enemy that must be defeated, because the voter is very well mobilized by the enemy, ”said R. Urbonaitė about the possible strategy of mobilizing voters.

He also drew attention to Skvernel’s rhetoric: when his government’s finance minister declared that the government would not introduce the thirteenth pension, The prime minister reiterated that it is not up to him to decide, and if the government approves the pension, it will be necessary to seek financing.

R. Urbonaitė called such statements desperation.

Look at the reaction of the Prime Minister: he seemed to be about to say that he was dismissing the Minister.

“Now they will shake off decisions that the voter may not like. Look at the reaction of the Prime Minister: he seemed to be about to say that he was removing the Minister. They are well aware that they have not taken their interest without the help of those benefits. ”He commented.

M.Baltrukevičius: LSDP Cornered

Matas Baltrukevičius, an associate analyst at the Vilnius Institute for Political Analysis, explained that to achieve better results, “peasants” must focus on single-member members, where they meet conservatives. There are so many in Kaunas.

Not only do you win, you don’t let your top competitors win.

“Those fights are crucial because they not only win, but also prevent key competitors who have the same goal of forming a coalition after the election from winning.” 15 minutes commented.

The “peasants”, according to the analyst, “are far behind in the race towards the possibility of forming a majority.”

The Social Democrats who are being pushed into the coalition with the LVS are, in their opinion, cornered: that the party seems to have distanced itself from the “peasants” when it left the coalition earlier and then tried to take a more determined turn to the left. Therefore, it is not appropriate to turn right.

“It is clear that if the Social Democrats go to the coalition with the ‘peasants’, what Gintautas Paluckas (leader of the LSDP, – 15 minutes) so far declares that this would be quite high ”, considered M. Baltrukevičius.

V.Uspaskich needs more LVŽS

The Labor Party with V. Uspaskich at the forefront, in his conviction, also counts.

“I think V. Uspaskich understands that the ‘peasants’ need him more and would be more likely to reach an agreement with them,” the analyst said.

A coalition of the TS-LKD, the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement, he said, would probably be possible without the Labor Party: “The Labor Party may not be necessary.”

The second round of the Seimas elections, after which everything will be clear, is on October 25.