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Some time after the Putin-Lukashenko meeting, which sparked virtually no public impetus in the crisis, the portal has been wondering: Does Moscow still consider the rush of state-of-the-Union integration to be a favorable scenario?
Also: what does Minsk expect in return? According to Medusa, the protests against Lukashenko came to the Kremlin unexpectedly, so unexpectedly that there is still no clear plan for Belarus.
Towards a parliamentary republic
As already written, there was almost no concrete news of the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko, perhaps except that, for the first time, the Russian president publicly supported the regime’s intentions to carry out constitutional reform in Minsk.
Of course, Mr. Lukashenko spoke about these changes before the elections, although he said that the reform should be completed in two years, he did not explain what exactly should change.
Scanpix / AP Photo / Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin
“They offered me several options. They are not good. People are just afraid of making more serious changes to the Constitution, “Lukashenko said in late June, during whose 26 years of rule Belarus’s main legal document had changed twice and significantly expanded the powers of the president.
It is possible to prepare a pro-Russian candidate for the elections that is also acceptable to the West.
There is no new data on the constitutional reform, apart from the intention itself, even now. According to a report that circulated after the presidential meeting, the direction of the reform was not discussed.
And a few days ago, a source in Medusa said that the Kremlin was determined to gradually oust Lukashenko from the Belarusian presidency, saying that constitutional reform would take place first, followed by snap elections.
“During this time, it will be possible to prepare a pro-Russian candidate for the elections, which would also be acceptable to the West,” said a source on the portal.
At the same time, Belarus is expected to move towards the model of a parliamentary republic in Belarus: the role of the National Assembly will be strengthened.
The RBC portal has already announced that Minsk itself has offered the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe a similar option, and the latter is suitable for the Kremlin. The powers of the president would be reduced and parliament increased, and all reform should be completed by 2022.
According to RBC, the possibility of early presidential and parliamentary elections was discussed on September 3 by the foreign ministers of Russia and Belarus, Sergei Lavrov and Vladzimir Makayi, respectively, who met in Moscow.
“Nobody coordinates anything”
However, a source from Medusa stressed that the Kremlin has no clear plans for Belarus. There are several scenarios: according to the most aggressive and incredible, Belarus would become part of the Russian Federation and, according to the mildest, economic integration would occur.
In this case, it is important for Moscow that many Russians do not want radical steps in bilateral relations with Belarus. A study by the Yuri Levada Sociological Center showed that only 13 percent. respondents are in favor of the unification of Belarus and Russia.
„Reuters“ / „Scanpix“ nuotr./Aliaksandras Lukašenka
Furthermore, the protests against Lukashenko are believed to have been “caught off guard” by the Kremlin. And because of this, in the early days of the demonstrations, Russian officials did not show strong support for the Belarusian autocrat; it was not clear whether he would survive or not.
Moscow does not trust Lukashenko, but cannot allow a precedent: the opposition comes to power after protests in the streets.
Another source from Medusa confirms: “At first, the Kremlin was distracted, but when Lukashenko abstained, it was decided that he should lean.”
According to the Russian authorities, what is happening in Belarus could happen in Russia. Yes, Moscow does not trust Lukashenko, but it cannot allow a precedent: the opposition comes to power after the protests in the streets.
“Putin, Vaino, Kozak, Kirijenka – they all firmly believe that Lukashenko won the elections and that all enemies in Europe want to deprive him of this victory and rip Belarus from Russia. They operate in this paradigm,” the source said.
According to the Meduza interlocutor, the Kremlin does not have an action plan for Belarus: “Everyone is involved: presidential adviser Dmitry Kozak, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Deputy Minister of Economy Mikhail Babich, the Secretary of State of the Union Grigory Rapota “.
„Scanpix“ / ITAR-TASS nuotr./Vladimiras Putinas
“It just came to our attention then. This is typical of Putin’s structure: no one controls the process, everyone works according to his program, everyone knows what to do, no one coordinates anything.
“Everyone goes to the president, and he can do a special operation himself, without telling anyone,” added the source.
A weak and unreliable partner
However, so far there are no signs of support for Minsk; it is true, at least guarantees are sought. For example, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who arrived in Minsk on September 16, spoke at least officially only about joint military exercises and new weapons for Belarus.
But Medusa points out that Shoigu couldn’t help but talk about the two important objects in Russia’s defense systems in Belarus.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Sergei Shoigu
The first is the Volga radar station in the Brest region, which aims to warn Russia of a possible missile attack. The station monitors both the territory of Western Europe and the NATO underwater patrol areas in the North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea.
The second object is the 43rd Communications Center, operating in Vileika since 1964, which ensures communication between the headquarters of the Russian Navy and nuclear submarines in service in various oceans.
Russia uses these facilities for free, and at the end of last year Lukashenko seemed to have deliberately stated that they cost Minsk a lot, adding: “And they are fundamental for Russia. <...> If you want to build objects, for example, near Smolensk, imagine how much money it would take. “
The Kremlin has already blazed in unconditional support for former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.
But more, nothing. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin also visited Minsk, bringing old drafts of economic integration between the two countries there, but returning home without any concrete results.
From that meeting, everyone memorized only Lukashenko’s words about the supposedly intercepted Western conversation about Alexei Navaln’s poisoning.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Mikhail Mishustin and Alexander Lukashenko
However, in late August, Putin and Lukashenko agreed to supply a Russian coronavirus vaccine to Belarus; its reliability is clearly in doubt.
According to many analysts, Russia considers Lukashenko a necessary but inconvenient partner. And now, according to independent Belarusian political scientist Artyom Shraibman, “still very weak” is important because the Kremlin has already blazed in unconditional support for former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.
“Lukashenko has managed to control the protests and take the initiative, but that does not guarantee that he will be in office until the next elections.” Therefore, money must be given or supported to support him, given the possibility that he will not repay the aid and will not keep his promises.
The Kremlin benefits from a scenario of controlled power transfer, according to which the power structure would be less vertical, ”commented A. Šraibmanas.
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