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J. Augutis was interviewed by journalist Jolanta Svirnelytė.
Last week, three municipalities in Lithuania were painted black: Klaipėda, Neringa and Skuodas. What should we expect in the near future?
As we can see, the surge started earlier than expected. It is associated with a delta strain of the virus and now we are growing. We are likely to reach the limit of 1,000 cases per day this week or next. It may continue to rise, so unfortunately we cannot expect anything good in the near future.
And when will it arrive soon?
In a week or a year and a half, the rise is really clear. The numbers are not very likely to be very high: about 4,000, almost 60%. our communities have immunity and they no longer arrive.
The virus itself is slightly less likely to act, but knowing that this strain is very active, very contagious, those numbers can be reached high enough. It will be a week, in two weeks, we can get closer to the top.
And what will that peak look like?
It will depend a lot on our actions here and on different situations. There are a myriad of factors at play. The school year will start soon, schools, kindergartens, universities will be full of children, students and there will be many contacts. Clearly, this will work in the direction that the number of cases will increase.
The peak can be reached in a couple of weeks. This is one of the scenarios: it will rise more than 1000, then it can go down again, in the fall we would have a wave that would rise again. In general, if you look at these curves as they appear, you can see that very seldom is there a stable, uniform level, the same number throughout the week. Either it increases or it decreases.
I think this fall will be marked by the fact that we will have a lot of waves: takeoffs, descents, but the bottom itself is high enough. Again, it will also depend on how quickly we can reach 70-75%. vaccination threshold.
And what the current vaccine threshold means, see the report at the beginning of the article.
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