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Cloudy, windy and rainy like never before at this time of year. Now is precisely the darkest time of the year, not only because of the short day (≤ 9 h) and the low dawn at noon (about 19 ° above the horizon), but also because of the great optical thickness of the clouds.
When the sun’s rays fall sharply towards the surface, a large part of them is reflected from the surface of stratified clouds (> 60%), and the rest are forced to travel 3 to 10 times more than in the months of summer through clouds of the same thickness. The penetration of additional radiation scattered through the cloud is affected by the water content of the cloud, the particle size and phase of the cloud, the homogeneity of the cloud cover, and other factors.
The duration of the dark season also depends on the prevailing air masses in the region: if they are warm and humid, we have less light, because these air masses are usually dominated by continuous clouds in November and often form fog. If the air masses are cold and dry, more light enters the surface. The layer of snow formed in November also determines “brighter” days due to its reflective properties.
The atmospheric cold front that passed from the west this morning had little effect on temperature. In some places it even rose a few degrees higher than yesterday. Tomorrow, in the context of higher pressure, another portion of warm air will reach us, in addition to cloudy with clear weather, so we will not feel major meteorological changes during the weekend. The air will be warm and saturated with moisture, no significant precipitation is expected. Analysis of the trajectories of air particles shows that this heat comes from the mid-latitudes and subtropical waters of the North Atlantic.
This expected cooling of the air is not an anomaly, and in the higher layers of the atmosphere the air temperature will remain higher than normal even during this cooling.
However, this will not last long. The high-pressure system, now centered on Central Europe, will gradually expand north and east, occupying almost the entire Baltic region on Monday and then strengthening further. Air circulation will change throughout Europe: transmission from the south and southwest will predominate in Western Europe and from the northwest in Eastern Europe. This trend will continue until the second half of next week. The strong anticyclone formed over the Baltic is expected to be less mobile but not cold as it formed in the non-polar region. Despite the non-polar origin of this anticyclone, the air circulating in it will gradually dry out and cloud cover will decrease. Thus, starting next Wednesday, and in some places starting Tuesday, the air temperature will be negative at night (0 – -5 ° C) and during the day it will rise only a few degrees above 0 ° C But it is not advisable to wait for a strong cold The lowest probability of negative air temperature is found on the Lithuanian coast, but even there it will be close to 0 ° C at night.
Anticyclonal weather is forecast to continue in Lithuania until next weekend. The center of this strong and large-scale anticyclone will move only slightly to the southeast, so it will take until next week for significant warming to return. This expected cooling of the air is not an anomaly, and in the higher layers of the atmosphere the air temperature will remain higher than normal even during this cooling.
This low mobility high pressure system will cause a dry climate in much of Europe, with the exception of Great Britain, northern Norway and the Iberian Peninsula. It will also cause permanent snow cover in the Pavolg and Ural regions of Russia, snow and blizzards in the Caucasus Mountains, heavy rains on the Black Sea coast in Georgia (Sakartvele) and Turkey, and strong winds over the Aegean Sea and the Bosphorus.
Long-term weather forecast data shows that the higher pressure system in Eastern Europe can last two weeks or more, so the air temperature in Lithuania will be below normal in the second decade of November and around of the norm in the last decade.
The warm weather, reminiscent of a bob summer, will return to the eastern United States and southeastern Canada, while the weather in central and western Canada will remain cold. At night, the cold will reach -7 – -12 ° C even in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. As the constant high pressure system will cling to Eastern Europe, it will be abnormally warm over most of Siberia, as the climate there will not be formed by an Asian (Siberian) anticyclone, but by active cyclones carrying snow and blizzards from the Sea of Barents. Therefore, even in Central Yakutia, the air temperature will be close to 0 ° C during the day.
Early next week, another tropical storm, Eta, will approach Florida (US) south of Belize, adding 28 in the North Atlantic this year (topping other seasons). Of these, only four reached the severe hurricane category: Laura, Teddy, Delta, and Epsilon. This last tropical vortex may already be the last one this season, as the ocean surface cools in the tropical North Atlantic and the westerly wind system covers lower and lower latitudes. Therefore, hurricane force winds are not expected to cause this storm, but it is very likely that it will rain heavily in South Florida and the Bahamas. Typhoon season lasts longer in the western tropical Pacific. Two tropical storms, Atsani and Goni, are currently raging there. The former is projected to weaken over the South China Sea in a few days, and the latter over the mountainous regions of central Vietnam.
Long-term weather forecast data shows that the higher pressure system in Eastern Europe can last two weeks or more, so the air temperature in Lithuania will be below normal in the second decade of November and around of the norm in the last decade. In late November and early December, western transfer from the North Atlantic is expected to resume and wet weather to return.
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