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“For those who miss snow, the good news is that the situation is finally favorable for drizzle and snow. The main supplier of energy from the atmosphere to Europe is that the atmosphere is fragmenting and weakening, and will soon regroup. The main air mass flows will be diverted to the Arctic and North Africa and the Mediterranean.
The currents themselves do not supply heat directly to Europa during the cold season, as they form near the tropopause, at an altitude of about 10-12 km. However, with their circulation system, they allow medium width low and high pressure vortexes to move and develop faster and thus transfer heat and moisture. The currents over the North Atlantic and Western Europe generally run in a latitudinal direction (that is, west to east or southwest to northeast). Atmospheric vortices move in these directions and carry (warmer) marine air masses toward Eurasia and the Arctic. As the flow over Europe weakens, the meridian transmission direction begins to prevail and the bar formations become less mobile and dormant.
Thus, tomorrow the westerly winds will decrease in Lithuania and will be replaced by a weaker wind from the east and northeast. Such transmission changes will be determined by the Atlantic Cyclone, which is still active today and will be full tomorrow. Furthermore, cooler air masses will enter the Baltic region in the upper atmosphere, which will likely be the main reason for the negative temperature that will prevail over the weekend and into the next week.
No need to worry about the cold, as the daily average air temperature will be only -0.5 – -3.5 ° C, and on the coast it will remain positive in the near future and will only be around 0 ° C in the second half of next week. Tomorrow, a new cyclone will form over Ukraine, the rear (colder side) of which will bring cloudy weather with precipitation (mainly drizzle) to Lithuania. In contrast, a much warmer climate and liquid precipitation from the Black Sea will arrive in Central Russia at this time of year. The center of this cyclone is expected to reach the Gulf of Bothnia on Monday and eventually fill there. As the cyclone fills up over the Baltic region, the west-southwest wind will return to Lithuania for a short time on Monday.
Once the cyclone finally fills the high-pressure areas centered over northern Kazakhstan, it will expand westward and its circulation system will cover all of eastern and part of central Europe and Scandinavia. As a result, the atmospheric pressure in Lithuania will increase and a steady but weak southeast wind will stabilize. Even in high pressure conditions (1025 – 1030 hPa at sea level), cloudy and cloudy skies with light rain (mainly wet) will prevail. It will cool in almost all of Europe, except in the northeast (Russia) and southwest (Spain) parts. The highest rainfall will occur in the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and on the western slopes of the Scandinavian mountains.
By the end of the next week, the thickness of the snow cover in some places may exceed 10 cm.
In Asia, the Siberian anticyclone is still moving significantly west of its average position, apparently leading to a strong heat anomaly in northern Siberia and the central Arctic. Active cyclones continue to increase rapidly in the snowpack in eastern and northern Siberia. And in the south of the Asian continent, probably the last very strong tropical cyclone, Nivar, has moved from the Bay of Bengal to the south of India (state of Tamil Nadu) this week. The knowledge of the losses is very poor, but the amount of precipitation that this cyclone released will be very significant in this dry season.
As already mentioned, the predominant type of precipitation during the weekend and next week is snow and sleet, so a layer of snow will form in Lithuania. First, the highest probability of their formation will be in the east and northeast of Lithuania, then in Samogitia and central Lithuania. By the end of the next week, the thickness of the snow cover in some places may exceed 10 cm.
It will probably not be a permanent snow cover; for this it should last at least 20 days and in the absence of frost it is unlikely. Furthermore, according to the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF), a sharp increase in the transmission of the west wind and the advance of sea air towards the Baltic region is forecast for the second ten days of December ”, predicts Assoc . Gintautas Stankūnavičius.
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