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According to the analyst, who once wrote speeches specifically for Putin, no one, not even the president’s most loyal comrades, believes that the situation in Russia will improve under the current leadership.
The only real questions at this point are “when will it always end?” And “who will be the new president?”
Preparing a chair for M. Mišustinas?
According to tradition, although very brief, the prime minister is considered to be the most real successor to the outgoing president in Russia. That is why, according to A. Galiamov, the appointment of Mikhail Mishustin as head of government was one of the main political events of 2020.
Under the amended constitution, Putin can legally seek re-election in 2024, but can decide to resign and name a successor.
“He saw the end of the maneuvers of the President of Belarus, Aliaksandr Lukashenko, which caused massive unrest. Putin knows that similar events could shock Russia. He is already upsetting people,” writes A. Galiamov.
Photo by Scanpix / ITAR-TASS / Mikhail Mishustin and Vladimir Putin
Polls show that less than 50 percent already trust the president. Russian. This means that more than half of the voters do not want to vote for Putin.
There may be short-term bursts of popularity, but long-term growth is unlikely – the president’s so-called voter base will continue to shrink. Putin does not like to take risks, so he can transfer part of his powers to his successor, instead of building everything on a single card like Lukashenko.
The context is such that it can be said that in November the government ministers were transferred not in favor of V. Putin, but in favor of M. Mišustinas.
Research from the Yuri Levada Center also shows interesting coincidences: if Putin’s ratings drop, Mišustino’s rise and vice versa. From September to November, the proportion of respondents who positively evaluated the president’s activities decreased from 69 percent. to 65%, and the popularity of M. Misustinas has just grown.
It is important. In the last years of the government of Russian President Boris Yeltsin, the qualifications of all his prime ministers, Yevgeny Primakov, Sergei Stepashin and Putin himself, increased automatically. After all, Yeltsin was terribly unpopular: the Russians wanted another president, so almost everyone was in good shape.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin
“Even now, it seems that the public sees Michustina not as a satellite of the national leader, but as a possible successor to him,” says Galiamov.
Again, the context is such that it can be said that in November the government ministers were transferred not in favor of V. Putin, but in favor of M. Mišustinas. Perhaps the long-time president is not only seriously considering retiring, but has already made up his mind?
Communists and the right
What will change in the life of political parties? Any changes are important as the elections to the State Duma approach. Galiamov sees two main trends.
The first trend is the radicalization of the second echelon of the Communist Party, the second largest in the country. Activists are increasing pressure on the party leadership and demanding that it begin to criticize the ruling regime.
According to Galiamov, this is why the Communist Party initially voted against Snowy referendum on amendments to the Constitution, and then he himself made alternative proposals and held an alternative plebiscite. The latest communist initiative is to train a million observers to prevent the Duma elections from being rigged.
Photo by Scanpix / ITAR-TASS / Russian referendum on constitutional amendments
The second trend is the formation of a new strong right-wing party, New People. This political rookie has already shown that he can win the election.
For its part, the Kremlin, by allowing the right-wing party to register and stand in the elections, has shown a desire to halt the deterioration of its social base.
“Putin clearly does not want right-wing voters to become radicalized and understands that this can only be avoided by giving them a political platform. In the regional elections in September,” New People “, by the way, won the victories without the help of the party to whom they were in power, “says Galiamov.
For him, this suggests that the newcomers will play a fairly important role in politics and freedoms will have as much as the Communists.
Scanpix / ITAR-TASS photo / Young communist activist in Moscow
“The New People will not go to the barricades, but history shows that that opportunity alone often forces the government to speak to the systemic opposition. And this, again, can become the main driver of democratic change,” said the analyst.
Should protests wait not only in Moscow?
Of course, there is also a non-systemic opposition, which is symbolized by Alexei Navaln. The attempt to poison him only strengthened the activist’s position, as did the fact that he not only survived, but also humiliated the strikers who were sent after him, exposing them.
“The ability to face death and overcome it is a sign of true leadership, an irrational force that the Kremlin cannot deny with explanations that Navaln is linked to the American CIA,” Galiamov wrote.
The possible return of A. Navalnas to Russia would be very important, especially considering the current situation: the closer the start of the election campaign of the State Duma, the more relevant will be the actions of A. Navalnas.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Alexei Navaln
Tension is said to be high anyway, and the return of the opposition leader may act as a trigger, as can Vladimir Lenin’s return to what was then Petrograd in 1917 (St. Petersburg, ed.).
“The Russians are now in a bad mood and the Kremlin has nothing to do with Navaln’s ‘smart vote’; it can only push silovikai.
Therefore, it is possible that Navalnas would have simply been arrested upon his return, even if the authorities realized that the activist’s arrest would inevitably provoke protests, which would become an undesirable fund for the election campaign, ”says Galiamov.
According to him, the most important event in Russia this year is the unexpected and relentless protests in Khabarovsk. It is these demonstrations that prevent the Kremlin from explaining that only Muscovites have been beaten in the country for political purposes; what happened in Khabarovsk seems to be happening elsewhere in Russia.
„Scanpix“ / ITAR-TASS nuotr./Chabarovske protests
“Before the Duma elections, it is important to remember that voters like stability. However, the current situation is more favorable for the opposition, with a growing sense that the wind is already blowing in the other direction. and that change is inevitable.
It is time for officials loyal to the Kremlin to withdraw from the political scene, it is time to return to the opposition. It can already be said that the opposition will perform well in the next elections. If the regime breaks down, there will be protests, and not just in Moscow, “the analyst warned.
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