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The ruling coalition after the 2020 Seimas elections consisted of the Union National-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD), the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement. As soon as the parties submitted the programs, their pages revealed fundamental contradictions between the parties’ views.
The most tangible differences can be divided into three types: values, historical memory and taxation, and economic issues in general.
These areas cover much of what divides liberal and conservative views. The former are campaigning for same-sex civil unions, the decriminalization of small drugs, the ratification of the Istanbul Convention, and the latter are not.
No less storms will arise from problems of spelling of personal names, increase or reduction of taxes, creation or destruction of profits, and where there is also historical memory, which includes, for example, beaches that sprout in the center of the capital, commemorative plaques to historical figures, monuments and more.
Karbauskis forecast: value problems will destroy the coalition
Earlier, the leader of the Lithuanian peasants and greens, Ramūnas Karbauskis, told tv3.lt that he believed that the ruling coalition would be shattered by questions of value that would be addressed in one way or another during the 2020-2024 period.
“One more thing will happen when certain value problems begin. Now they are with them in the last column of the Government program, but they will definitely enter the agenda. There will be problems not only for the opposition, but also for the position here,” he predicted. R. Karbauskis in the fall, shortly after leaving the Seimas.
He cites as examples the decriminalization of soft drugs or the legalization of civil same-sex couples.
“For example, let’s say the legalization of drugs or the creation of same-sex families, or the Istanbul Convention. These problems could destroy the coalition, I argue. Because in this situation, the Freedom Party will have to choose between power and principles.
Because, knowing the composition of the conservatives, knowing the composition of the Liberal Movement, it is obvious that somewhere in the ruling coalition between 15 and 20 people will not vote for him, ”said the peasant leader.
For this reason, according to R. Karbauskis, the sensitive issues mentioned are not included in the Government’s program, only in the aspirations of the coalition’s work.
“They already know that it is impossible to get votes in the coalition. If the opposition votes against in this place, and this will probably happen, it will be a paradox that the leader of the Freedom Party will have to decide, whether to be in power, to wear the insignia of the Minister or to serve his constituents, his principles, their values ”, commented R. Karbauskis.
Opinions differ even within the party
The elder of the Liberal Movement Eugenijus Gentvilas admits that the coalition partners will face difficulties in the next four years and will certainly not limit themselves to handling the Covid-19 pandemic. E. Gentvil himself laughs that he is guided by the motto “Liberals: inveterate realists of life.”
“It just came to our notice then. But we, as life’s tough realists, understand that there will be such resistance and certainly there will be no united position. Therefore, these things (we are talking about the aforementioned value issues – aut. Past) and were not agreed upon in the coalition agreement.
Because if it were remembered, it would be recorded, things that we agree on. And these things are raised on the sidelines, questions will be asked. However, I understand that there will not be a unified position and there will be several differences. In some cases, the Liberal Movement will not fully agree with the issues mentioned, there will not be a unanimous vote, ”E. Gentvilas told tv3.lt.
Here, too, he mentions that the Liberal Movement, despite having these issues on the party’s agenda, has different opinions on, for example, same-sex couples or the decriminalization of soft drugs.
“Some party members do not and will not support the theses of the program, I cannot force them to vote,” laughed E. Gentvilas.
In addition, the politician believes that the great partner of the coalition, which unites 50 members of the Seimas, TS-LKD will not agree with the mentioned issues.
“I think that a large number of them will not support the legalization of the association or the decriminalization of ‘pasture’ in the future. It must be accepted as a reality. The coalition won’t collapse because of that either. This coalition differs from the previous one, led by peasants, in one respect. So it was like this: if you don’t agree, then the question isn’t even asked.
Here is a different agreement: things that we all agree on and things that will be provided and sought within or outside the coalition, ”said E. Gentvilas.
You can vote according to your conscience.
He also has the support of the Vice President of the Seimas, Jurgis Razma, a member of the TS-LKD, who emphasizes that questions of value should be debated well and not rushed.
“All the issues, especially the sensitive ones, require in-depth discussions. They will certainly also be at the level of our group. We will start that they are also at the level of the Seimas. We will certainly ask the coalition partners not to rush those issues. I believe that if there is a deep discussion, various opinions will be heard, whatever the decision is made, we will all respect it, ”said J. Razma on tv3.lt.
Currently, according to Razma, the TS-LKD does not have a unanimous opinion on civil associations, drugs or other sensitive issues. The deputy says that all members of the group will be free to vote according to their conscience.
“Our group is likely to vote freely on those issues, group members will vote in good faith, as they see fit. There are more liberal members of us, there are more conservative members. This will apparently be reflected in your votes.
It seems to me that the members understand that we are not the same as them, we are different parties, and we do not expect a 100% vote on issues that concern them. They have to seek votes in the opposition groups if they want these issues to be adopted. It seems to me that they will be easy to find, for example, in the Social Democrats ”, predicted J. Razma.
Questionnaire on tax benefits
Tax changes are another area that liberals and conservatives often disagree on. Some offer VAT relief on key products or a general VAT rate reduction in their programs, while others are sticking their finger in the hole in the state budget.
However, according to E. Gentvilas, there is a consensus among the coalition partners not to increase the overall tax burden, and individual taxes can always be negotiated.
“We are clearly in favor of raising taxes on pollution and resource use. Our principle is that the overall tax burden does not increase, but there is a lot of room for discussion, debate, agreement and compromise here. I think the partners will also be flexible, “said the largest of the faction of the Liberal Movement.
Razma also mentioned the agreement to avoid abrupt tax changes, but recalled that there were taxes that could be cause for concern.
“We are talking more about adjusting these taxes, which are significantly different from our average in the European Union: property and environmental taxes.” It seems to me that liberal partners are not very sensitive to this area when it comes to various raises, ”Razma said.
Yet he is cautious on the liberal-sponsored preference issue. According to the vice president of Seimas, some benefits can be detrimental.
However, I hope that we will unanimously agree that, in most cases, preferences create negative things and certain abuses that we will not delve into offering preferences.
If we talk about systemic benefits, I think we will agree that there is no need for them and there is no place for them, when our redistribution through public finances is one of the smallest in the European Union as a percentage of GDP ”, Razma said.
Three women are more inclined to commit
Vytautas Dumbliauskas, associate professor and political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), admits that now the coalition partners are united by the tense situation regarding the management of Covid-19: all are working together and other issues are moving to a second plane. However, this will not always be the case.
“If the pandemic is miraculously controlled next year, then there will be problems that the pandemic has pushed into the shadows, then there may be resistance. Because the Liberal Movement still has claims on the National Union, historically there have always been frictions there,” said V. Dumbliauskas on tv3.lt.
The political scientist has no doubt that questions of value related to the family can ignite a spark of hostility between parties, and the biggest obstacle to their implementation may be the conservatives.
“It just came to our attention then. There are people in the National Union faction who have been in the Seimas for a long time and who are of legal age and have important values for them. <...> There may be friction here. Liberals may find it easier to agree, and the National Union may find it more difficult. It is not for nothing that these questions are not being asked now, ”said the MRU associate professor.
In addition, the political scientist considers that with the acceleration of the legislature, the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement may find it increasingly difficult to agree, since both liberal forces will try in one way or another to establish themselves before the next elections to the Seimas in 2024.
However, V. Dumbliauskas believes that there will be far fewer disputes, and compromises will be imposed simply because three women are currently cooperating in the political skies: TS-LKD Deputy Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, leader of the Liberal Movement and President of the Seimas Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen. and Aušrinė Armonaitė, President of the Freedom Party and Minister of Economy and Innovation.
“I believe in the capacity of three women. I think women are more inclined to compromise, they are capable of cornering, they have no shame, like men sometimes, it must be how I want to be. I hope the new generation has brought a different approach to politics. I give hope to gender, age and the fact that these three parts cannot do without each other. It’s like a marriage out of necessity.
I don’t think I should break up because then they would sign the death warrant themselves. Conflicts are possible, but overall it seems that the coalition should survive, albeit with some friction. However, problems must be reconciled through compromises, “predicted V. Dumbliauskas about the future of the ruling coalition.
The center-right coalition in the Seimas is made up of 50 members of the TS-LKD faction, 11 members of the Libertad faction and 11 members of the Liberal Movement faction.
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