Data scientist on quarantine relaxation: the government has cornered itself

Data scientist V. Zemlys – Balevičius estimated the latest pandemic figures in the program. According to him, there is a noticeable slowdown in the growth of cases in Vilnius.

“Some time ago I said that on April 30 there were about 1,500 cases. This was said 4-5 weeks ago. And this week we moved harder towards that goal, growth slowed. (…) Visible slowdown in Vilnius, here is the question. Because in Vilnius, the weekly growth fluctuated around zero over the past week and only increased a little over the weekend.

This is the question here, if nothing had changed, perhaps then it would be possible to see that Vilnius has peaked and preventive tests, vaccination is taking effect, and the number of cases in Vilnius is starting to decline. But we will have a change: larger releases have been announced and of course they will have some effect. And then we will see how it will be. It is up to all of us how we will view these releases, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

He recalled in the program “Delfi rytas” that the virus has not disappeared anywhere, although the quarantine conditions have been announced, however, you still have to be careful.

“It just came to our attention then. But supermarkets also make very normal offers to control the epidemic. (…) It may not be so bad here. We’ll see what the effect will be,” said the data scientist.

The timing of the quarantine releases was not the best, he said.

“It just came to our knowledge then. But we have quarantine whose restrictions no one complies with. (…) I have also said many times that we need to open the activities and look at their impact, to explain which activities can work and which ones cannot. said the interlocutor of the program.

He concluded that we are now “living in Sweden”.

“Adherence to restrictions has now become a matter of human conscience. We will see if the results are the same as in Sweden. Autumn proved that it was not good, but perhaps now people who yearn for freedom use it responsibly, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

The data scientist said the problems were extremely difficult because the government had “kicked itself into a corner.”

“The government has cornered itself by maintaining those limitations and not conducting additional experiments in conjunction with the cumulative method. If something had been published, we would have collected the data and said which activities are not risky. Then it would be much easier to talk about new releases. Let’s not forget that when we reach a similar number of deaths and hospitalizations that we had in the winter, we will inevitably have to do something. And that will mean going back to a harsh quarantine, tougher than it was.

Because in reality and now we live in a hard, but the effect is not enough to reduce those amounts. Hopefully this is not necessary, people will understand and use those freedoms responsibly so that the number of hospitalizations and deaths does not reach that level. Because then that pressure will turn backwards. “If hospitals are overcrowded and deaths increase, taking no action will simply be a crime,” he said.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius said on the program that the situation in western Lithuania is very good.

“Everything must be done so that the bad situation, which is in Kaunas and Vilnius, where cases are increasing, does not spread to the west of Lithuania,” emphasized the interlocutor of the program.

He reiterated that the release from quarantine would not arouse the desire to live with “broken heads”, but rather to responsibly assess the current situation.

“Our whole goal is to make the epidemic go away. That is, if we as a society make an effort, although asking society to make an effort after all that it has been, is very difficult. But here, like in a marathon, the last 10 kilometers left are the hardest. You need to focus and run to the finish. Then we will be in order and live freely in the summer. And if we don’t, summer will be like winter in America: some are safe, some are not, the number of cases is not increasing, and the state cannot fully release everything. This is how the most honest suffer, it is not a good thing, “said data scientist V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

Delphi remember that the whole country has already entered the black zone, with 100,000 cases; population has exceeded the threshold of 500 in 14 days. According to data provided by the Department of Statistics on April 19, this indicator reaches 501.1.