Data Scientist: No Good News: The Fourth Wave Is Gaining Momentum

The interlocutor of the program said that the latest statistics show that the pandemic and the fourth wave are gaining momentum.

“It is our pandemic, the fourth wave. And we have the same delta growth that we have seen in other countries. There has been impressive growth. Now we see it in Lithuania. Unfortunately, there is no good news. We will see when it stops. Unfortunately, with such growth “It will be interesting to see what continues. Because if that growth continues, you will have to think about what else needs to be done. Or we are increasing vaccination and seeing when hospitals will start to fill up,” said the data scientist.

V. Zemlys – Balevičius also spoke next autumn at the show “Delfi rytas”.

“If we can talk about 70,000 cases at the end of the summer with an increase of 70 percent, with a doubling of the acceleration, that number increases. Since these are scenarios, simple arithmetic with geometric progression, it all depends on how long that growth is maintained. Looking at the data, this growth is visible in all municipalities ”, said V. Zemlys – Balevičius.

Delphi remember that the pace of the pandemic is already 111 percent, according to data published on Monday.

He stated on the “Delfi rytas” program that although it is mainly Klaipeda, growth does not stop as much in Vilnius as in other major cities.

“Now the growth in Klaipeda has slowed down, because there are 100,000. The population already represents almost 200 cases in 14 days. And in Vilnius and Kaunas, where those numbers were relatively lower, that growth already exceeds 100 percent”, He said.

The data scientist stated that the prevalence is visible throughout Lithuania.

“All municipalities have the potential to move forward. (…) If the whole of Lithuania skyrockets, it will be interesting to note that the 70 percent growth will turn out to be an optimistic scenario, which would be very bad. The question now is whether we need to retrain our understanding of which numbers are high. During the first wave, 50 cases a day looked terrifying, the sky was falling apart.

After the second wave, 150 boxes a day seemed like a green zone, no problem. These are now the numbers we are seeing: 200 per day, this is perhaps the new normal. Due to the effect of vaccination in other countries, we see that younger patients, who may be less likely to infect those hospitals, are more easily transmitted. (…) Maybe those numbers are normal ”, asked the interlocutor of the program.

Data scientist V. Zemlys – Balevičius recalled that Lithuania Statistics provided statistical numbers of unvaccinated and coronavirus people.

“These figures are alarming: 90 percent of patients are not vaccinated. This means that we do not have an epidemic, but an epidemic of unvaccinated people. And consequently, measures must be taken to increase vaccination and reduce contacts of who have not received the vaccine ”, commented the data scientist in the program.

“If all the growth is coming from unvaccinated people, it’s scary. That means we’ll go back to doing the same things we did in the fall when there was no vaccine,” he said.

Data scientist V. Zemlys-Balevičius recalled that last year Lithuania traveled from September to December up to the limit of 3,000 new cases.

“It is with such growth now up to 4,000 cases per day that we can do two in a month. It won’t take three months. We have less time to prepare, that’s not good, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius on the program” Delfi rytas “.

Epidemiologists sent out many red flags about the Festival of the Sea and the city of Klaipeda, which was the first of the country’s major cities to enter the red zone.

“Delta, according to all data, is already shared throughout Lithuania. This is a trip to Klaipeda: you don’t bring anything new that you haven’t brought. Here’s one thing. The second thing is that the events take place in the open air, which means that the epidemiological risk is significantly lower ”, he explained.

The data scientist said the Winter Defense March at the Kaziukas Fair did not generate a large number of new cases.

“I think the data will show that the effect of the Festival of the Sea will not be as great as feared,” said V. Zemlys-Balevičius on the program “Delfi rytas”.

He also said he was vaccinated more on Thursday last week, about 12,000, up from 6,000 a week ago.

“The vaccination rates have almost doubled in a week, looking at the first doses,” said the interlocutor of the program.

V. Zemlys – Balevičius regretted a little that the population begins to reassess the risk only when the deterioration of the situation is clearly visible.

“It just came to our knowledge then. But it is better, because our only way out is public immunity. We can only achieve this through vaccination,” said data scientist V. Zemlys – Balevičius on the “Delfi rytas” program.