Data scientist: if growth doesn’t stop, we’ll probably see 1,500 cases by the end of the month

The program interviewee explained that the morbidity effect of the Easter weekend, as well as the lifting of traffic restrictions, is not yet visible in the morbidity statistics.

“We still don’t see the consequences of the long Easter weekend. In the same way that we do not see the consequences of this launch. In the last four weeks, an average growth of about 19 percent in cases has not stopped. By the end of this month, we’ll probably see 1,500 cases if that growth doesn’t stop. “The only good thing compared to the second wave, because this is already the third, that growth is much slower,” said the data scientist.

He said the number of new cases had nearly doubled in the fall.

“We are moving forward calmly and confidently,” said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

The data scientist said that the stability of the numerical growth area is visible.

“I tried to see if the effect of the vaccination is visible, because we already have about 50 percent of the elderly vaccinated, something must be seen, but it is not yet seen. I would say that everything is similar to what it used to be: there is a significant increase in the number of cases in the younger age group. The number of cases in the elderly is not increasing. As the younger age groups are more mobile, then they transmit the virus ”, said the interlocutor of the program“ Delfi rytas ”.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius explained that expired movement restrictions throughout the country can also increase the number of diseases.

“Everyone is going to visit their parents, grandmothers and grandparents, maybe we will see an increase in those who have not yet been vaccinated, maybe we will see an increase there. We can’t draw far-reaching conclusions yet, “said the data scientist.

He noted that the current increase in cases is certainly less than that registered in the fall.

“Although not everyone adheres to those restrictions, the growth is not as great in terms of variety. It is not as great as if there was no control as in September. (…) Now the counties are clearly separated, we have 3 counties in western Lithuania: Klaipėda, Tauragė, Šiauliai. In which the number of cases is significantly lower, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius about the unequal situation in the country.

The data researcher explained that the highest infections are in three areas: educational institutions, workplaces and families. The easiest way to control the first two: educational institutions and workplaces. And the lifting of restrictions on movement between municipalities will encourage some to travel with relatives and not comply with the quarantine.

“Now we will see the effect as it will be. I am not going to predict what it will be. But there are arguments that should be left to people on their own and decide voluntarily, we will see if that argument worked, if it will be protected or not. The data after a few weeks, one month, they will show it. Or not. This is where such an experiment comes into play, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

“Seeing that everyone went to Palanga longing for the beach, we will probably see that it will be a bad decision. But you need to see the data. Until they’re there, it’s just speculation, “said the data scientist.

After a warm weekend in the social space, it was noticed that the cities looked like outdoor cafes, their activities have not yet been released. The interlocutor of the program recalled that outdoor activities are the least risky.

“Outdoor activities are the least risky. The ski slopes were also open in winter. (…) That people spend time outdoors, it is not a problem that there is less risk. That’s right, that meteorological effect of the weather warm should work. The problem is the workplaces of other activities where there is no protection, “said the interlocutor of the show.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius explained that the feeling of security cannot yet disappear anywhere.

The interlocutor of the program “Delfi rytas” said that if the same quarantine restrictions remain in force, the situation will remain just as stable.

“It just came to our attention then. Now with the current restrictions, their non-compliance, because we still have a part of the population that will not comply, will be stable enough. If we continue with those restrictions, we will probably have a 20 percent increase every week. , it will continue until the good weather is reached or the vaccination begins to work ”, said the interlocutor of the program” Delfi rytas “.

He considered that now the government’s hands are tied. If quarantine were tightened again, only those who meet the specified requirements would suffer.

“It just came to our knowledge then. What else can be closed? Because everything is already formally closed. Something extra cannot be closed. For the public, that closure will also not have any effect, as some will not comply yet. In fact, this will shut down those who are honest. Punishing those who follow is pointless. How things will play out is interesting. We have tests that work only half. If nothing is changed, one day that virus will breathe out.

Expect and plan for the worst. We have a very bad situation in Vilnius, it has not yet surrendered to other cities, Kaunas is gaining momentum, the western region of the country is still waiting. If there will be that acceleration, it will be bad. But maybe we will get a good time and vaccination, “said data scientist V. Zemlys – Balevičius on the show” Delfi rytas “on Monday.