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Portal lrytas.lt The political experts interviewed assessed the objectives pursued by the Presidency in this step, but at the same time pointed out that this decision would not necessarily live up to expectations.
Dangerous in several respects
Povilas Mačiulis, President Gitanas Nausėda’s senior adviser on domestic policy, congratulated the crowd gathered at the Presidency on Thursday on behalf of G. Nausėda, saying that he “conveys the president’s wishes” and thanked him for his activity.
In evaluating the Presidency’s decision to address the rally participants, communication specialist Arūnas Armalis stated that in terms of communication it was a consistent step by G. Nausėda, and the President recorded a greeting to the rallies in Vingis Park. On the other hand, according to A. Armalis, this step was dangerous in two respects.
“G. Nausėda continues to reduce the circle of his sympathies; I cannot say that the voters, because they are still very far before the elections. The more a politician like the president, who needs the greatest possible public support, crystallizes his circle of sympathies , the more risky ”, estimated A. Armal.
According to him, traditionally the presidents of the country, especially during acute conflicts, sought to unite society with their main weapon: communication. “Now we have a president who defends a very radical part of society,” Armalis said.
According to the communication specialist, another danger arises: that such a move by the Presidency legitimizes an organization that ignores the law and quarantine procedures.
“This step of the president gave an additional value to the organization of organizers of the family march, which is called” Movement of the Lithuanian family “, as if it had become even more legitimate; we see that with each step of this type, each public support , the “Lithuanian Family Movement” becomes more and more courageous and arrogant.
They oppose the LGBT community, which, when they do not receive permits to picket, seek permits legally by going to court. The Family Movement, without permission, took a legal path and demonstrated its approach to the law.
Therefore, when G. Nausėda’s advisor greets the president and encourages him with various quotes, something strange happens: the president encourages a group of society that ignores the law with his communication, ”said A. Armalis.
According to him, the public already feels the fruits of such support: “I saw so much aggression on Facebook a long time ago, people seemed to abstain, but now they have been allowed to be aggressive, rude, use hate speech.”
There was no actual support action
For his part, Vytautas Isoda, associate professor and political scientist at the Lithuanian Military Academy (LKA), commented that the president can have opinions and points of view not only on fiscal or public security issues, but also on issues of value.
“However, the situation is twofold: on the one hand, the president can have opinions, on the other hand, the president is obliged by the Constitution to protect the unity of society, the integrity of the country, to be equally fair to everyone and represent all Lithuanian citizens.
However, as this issue is polarized, society is divided, to take sides and thus, obviously, give preference to this movement, an aspect of the president’s policy that is already somewhat criticized, ”said V. Isoda.
The political scientist notes that while the president said during the annual report that he supported the Association Act and wanted same-sex relationships to be legally regulated, we did not see any similar appeal or support to the LGBT community, either through counselors or directly, as the Great Family did during the defense march ”.
Furthermore, Isoda also points out that the presidential adviser legitimized the rally, which was not sanctioned, with his appearance.
Can games get out of control?
Mažvydas Jastramskis, a political scientist at the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI), stated that G. Nausėda, having decided to send his senior adviser P.Mačiulis to the protesters, missed the opportunity to draw a line. .
The political scientist believes that the head of the country, by thus legitimizing the movement of aggressive extreme forces, is simply trying to be elected for a second term.
“The legitimacy of aggressive, extreme anti-liberal movements never promises anything good for democracy. I understand the wish of the Presidency to seek alliances and the wish of Gitan Nausėda to be re-elected. As I see, here is a consistent line with the previous wishes to balance, to reconcile what is not entirely compatible, ”wrote M. Jastramskis on his Facebook account.
The political scientist believes that the president, who sent his representative to speak to the protesters, missed the opportunity to draw the line. “However.” When you talk about human rights one day in Sweden and you greet protesters with the advice of an adviser who wants to overthrow parliament and yelled at the Seimas member yesterday, it’s a dangerous missed opportunity to draw a line. “, He said.
M. Jastramskis considered that the decision of the Presidency can be explained by power struggles and lack of political experience. Still, he said, these presidential games present some risks.
“I believe that the Presidency does not take the Family March seriously and does not see it as a threat to democracy and constitutional order. Still, those games can get out of control, “he said.
What does the Presidency want?
The political scientist believes that presidents without the support of a party in the Seimas, who do not have the opportunity to influence the Seimas agenda, can try to gain influence and power in the Lithuanian political system in various other ways.
“Dalia Grybauskaitė relied mainly on special services and stronger police control, G. Nausėda became a bit populist, trying to appeal directly to the people, as if to oppose society with the political elite and try to unite with the people .
The problem is, those people won’t appeal to all the people on those topics. We do not have real data, we have seen several surveys. As if a large part of the public was opposed to the Law of Associations. Perhaps in such a populist way he is trying to attract a larger part of society? ”, A scenario was named by a political scientist.
However, V. Isoda points out that G. Nausėda, through his adviser, tried to gain additional points in the conflict with the ruling majority.
“There was an appeal in P. Mačiulis’s speech that someone was trying to expel the President of the European Council (EVS); those words were said. (…) In this case, the President is trying to gain that political weight with the support of the citizens ”, commented P. Isoda.
The political scientist said he believed the president could count on the support of the nation to compensate the ruling majority if his views did not agree with the prime minister’s position, but questioned whether the issue should be legitimized by the association: “I don’t think the president chose that fight.”
Will we see in the Seimas?
A. Armalis considered it a mistake to think, mainly based solely on the polls, that the majority of those who oppose the Association Law also support the “Lithuanian Family Movement”.
At the same time, when evaluating the objectives of the organization, the communication specialist does not rule out that the organization may also become a political force.
“This organization, the Lithuanian Family Movement, which is already the name of a political organization, will go to the Seimas? Well, now they are trying very hard to say that they will not, because it would be inconvenient for them, they would become politicized in immediately and would no longer receive support.
But we have a very similar analog. In 2016, the Lithuanian Green and Peasant Union (LVŽS) and Ramūnas Karbauskis did their best to say that they were not a party. This continued pretty much all of 2017 until he finally recognized that there was a party going on. I see an analog, another birth of rescuers, only up to now they have been polarized, ”said A. Armalis.
