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Last week, several Azerbaijani and Armenian soldiers were killed or wounded in clashes on their borders. Violence erupted some 300 km from the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.
“It does not seem to me that this is an expression of the fight between Russia and Turkey. Because it is not very clear what Turkey would want to get out of that fight if it wanted to intensify the conflict with Russia. In that case, it would only cause more problems by itself,” D. Jakniūnaitė said.
Expression of the existing tension.
– Why has violence erupted again and does this mean that tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan are entering a new phase?
– The tension does not enter a new stage, it was always like this. This conflict is one of the oldest in the post-Soviet space, and despite rhetoric in 2018, attempts to declare that renegotiations or new forms will be sought, the tensions have gone nowhere.
AFP / Scanpix photo / Conflicts on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border
For 30 years there have been several small shootings, military advances. Recent events are one of the strongest expressions of tension.
The details of recent events are completely confusing. Both sides blame each other for taking action, escalating the conflict. And we do not have access to information from more objective sources, such as external observers such as the OSCE or the International Crisis Group. We are left with only propaganda messages that cannot be trusted.
Recent event versions are highly speculative. The border between Armenia and Azerbaijan is highly militarized, one of the speculations is that the Armenians carried out some form of militarization in that territory, and the Azeris may have wanted to dissuade them. And then perhaps a human error could have occurred, something that later escalated. And maybe a signal was sent from Azerbaijan to the Armenians.
However, this is just speculation, which is not very reliable.
It should be noted that the shooting did not take place in the Nagorno-Karabakh territory and not along the contact line, but at the normal cross-border border.
AFP / Scanpix photo / Conflicts on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border
– So shouldn’t violence abruptly escalate on a much larger scale?
– I suppose not. Because neither side, neither the Armenians nor the Azeris, their authorities, needs a military conflict, which can be difficult to manage. Military force and military means are used as deterrence and threats. It is well understood that war will not bring any good to either party.
– Why has the Nagorno-Karabakh problem not been solved for so long?
– The problem is not solved since it has become an integral part of the political mythology or the national discourse of both countries.
For each of the states, Nagorno-Karabakh is a traumatic experience or part of their identity. Political elites on both sides build and support that rhetoric.
The Azeris say that Nagorno-Karabakh is their natural territory and without it they will not calm down, they will not recognize that territory. For the Armenians who have not officially recognized Nagorno-Karabakh, it is the origin of a large part of the political elite, they have the idea of defending their compatriots and the like.
When that rhetoric is supported and political mobilization is carried out in both countries through an external enemy, it is very difficult to think of a possible solution. Because any move will be considered a concession. This mechanism is happening in exactly the same way in both countries.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Azeri soldier
Some even say that political elites on both sides have become hostages because they cannot do otherwise. And after 30 years, a situation has arisen in which more humble ways cannot be found that do not provoke internal resistance, demonstrations, etc.
Exaggerated Russian influence?
– Western media has read that Armenia and Azerbaijan are like “Russia’s backyard.” How much influence does Russia really have in these countries?
– Regarding these two countries and Nagorno-Karabakh, there is a stereotype that is spreading from Moldova, Sacartwell and Ukraine: Russia is doing it as it wants.
However, compared to the aforementioned countries in conflict or in entrenched separatist spaces, Russia has the least influence to resolve it in this conflict.
Russia is also the least directly involved in escalating or supporting the conflict, for example, there are no Russian peacekeepers there.
Russia is a key mediator to resolve the conflict, but it is also one of the most important partners of Armenia and Azerbaijan, for example, it has a formal military alliance with Armenia and its association with Azerbaijan is also quite strong.
In this case, Russia cannot act as in its own backyard, for example, to support one side or the other, in order to resolve the conflict. The conflict is now fully backed and motivated by internal conditions.
– How do you evaluate the considerations that the resurgence of violence will worsen relations between Russia and Turkey, which supports Azerbaijan?
– I am very skeptical. It is an attempt to constantly seek global geopolitical struggles. However, it is very important to realize that the conflict is, above all, an expression of bilateral relations.
And it seems to me, from Russian rhetoric, that she did not expect this.
The Turks have a clear position: they support Azerbaijan. They cannot do the opposite. On the other hand, they are not interested in escalating the conflict to another of their borders. They already have many types of tensions, there are more interests in other spaces.
It does not seem to me an expression of the struggle between Russia and Turkey. Because it is not very clear what Turkey would want to get out of that fight if it wanted to intensify the conflict with Russia. In that case, it would only cause you more trouble.
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