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In the corridors of NATO, a formal debate has only just begun about who will replace current Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg next year. But while the final decision is expected to be announced next spring, there is no shortage of languages.
And in its vortex is the former President of Lithuania Mr. Grybauskaitė. It is true that she is not considered the main favorite to take the place of J. Stoltenberg, unlike, for example, the former Croatian president Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovič. Why?
15 minutes presents the thoughts of various analysts on why D. Grybauskaitė’s candidacy for NATO would be appropriate and why not.
Arguments in favor of the candidacy of D. Grybauskaitė
Several officials, diplomats and analysts say that after 72 years it is time to entrust NATO to the helm of a woman, while others believe that the election of an Eastern European candidate would be an eloquent signal for Moscow.
For example, Andžejus Pukštas, associate professor at Vytautas Magnus University (VMU), assesses D. Grybauskait posibilidades’s chances of becoming NATO Secretary General as “average”, but believes it is possible.
“It is realistic for NATO to seek a woman in this position. And because Lithuania is a small country, representative of Central and Eastern Europe. Grybauskaitė has accumulated considerable experience and has good authority in the international arena.” 15 minutes confirmed A.Pukštas.
Photo from personal album / Andžejus Pukšto
Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Vygaudas Ušackas also praised Mr. Grybauskaitė’s reputation.
V.Ušackas: there will be many factors and competitors. If the government and the president pressed, he would have a chance. This would be a great achievement for Lithuania.
“Dalia Grybauskaitė’s reputation, her principled and willful position in the current confluence of international relations could be seen as a positive and attractive candidacy.
How the cards are folded is another matter. There will be many factors and competitors. If the government and the president pressed, he would have a chance. This would be a great achievement for Lithuania, “said V.Ušackas.
It is an open secret that relations between current Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda and Mr. Grybauskaitė are cold, so active actions by the presidency to strengthen the candidacy of the former head of the country are unlikely.
Photo by Sigismund Gedvila / 15min / Gitanas Nausėda and Dalia Grybauskaitė
Meanwhile, Linas Kojala, director of the Center for Eastern European Studies (RESC), says that D. Grybauskaitė is noticeable because there are not many high-level politicians who want to be active in the West after finishing their careers. In addition, he has long attended NATO summits.
According to L. Kojala, gender can become one of the advantages of D. Grybauskaitė: “NATO has never had a woman as secretary general, so it is natural that (gender) is one of the incentives to consider this possibility. “.
“A representative of a small state can become a consensus of the big countries if one does not want to give another power to one of the big states,” said L. Kojala.
According to the director of RESC, the strict position of D. Grybauskaitė towards Russia may be an advantage “in the current circumstances, when it comes to multiple Russian threats.”
Valdo Kopūstas / Photo of 15min / Political scientist Linas Kojala
The criterion that improves a candidate’s chances is also if the country complies with the NATO recommendation to allocate 2%. defense of the gross domestic product.
L. Kojala: A representative of a small state can become a consensus of the big countries if one does not want to give another power to one of the big states.
This could help both D. Grybauskaitė and K. Grabar-Kitarovič. It is true that Lithuania plans to spend 2.03 percent on defense this year. GDP, while Croatia’s figure is much more impressive at 2.79%. GDP, and among NATO members it would only fall on Greece and the United States.
“It is very important that Grybauskaitė, if successful, is the first Secretary General of the Eastern European Alliance. 8-10 years ago, there was talk of Radoslaw Sikorski, but no more,” said V. Ušackas.
Photo by Julius Kalinskas / 15min / Gitanas Nausėda and Vygaudas Ušackas
Arguments against the candidacy of D. Grybauskaitė
On the other hand, Kęstutis Girnius, a political scientist at the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences of Vilnius University, has just recalled: “Until now, no NATO Secretary General has been elected from Central and Eastern Europe.”
Girnius agreed with the rather popular view that NATO’s biggest and most influential members would not anger Moscow and elect secretaries general from the anti-Kremlin Baltic states, that the administration of US President Joe Biden was only trying to bring in more. stability to western Russia. relations.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Meeting of Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in Geneva
“The chances of electing one of the Baltic countries as general secretary are low, not only because these countries are small, but also because they are very hostile to Russia. Russia could take this as a very negative sign, and Biden is currently at least partially committed to improving relations. ” 15 minutes confirmed K. Girnius.
A. Pukštas also believes that D. Grybauskaite’s leg may be affected by the austerity towards Russia. D. Grybauskaitė has called Russia a “terrorist state”.
Grybauskaitė’s term as president ended two years ago and he has held no official position since.
“It is no secret that Western European leaders see European architecture in dialogue with Russia. They still believe that a dialogue with Russia should take place in parallel with the European security process, the enlargement and the strengthening of NATO, ”said the associate professor of VMU.
Photo by Arno Strumila / 15min / Dalia Grybauskaitė
According to L. Kojala, the position of D. Grybauskaitė may seem too “decisive for some members of NATO, since it does not reflect the main role of the Secretary General in moderation and the search for consensus with very different countries”.
V.Ušackas, for his part, noted that NATO general secretaries are usually appointed by officials who are still actively occupying high-ranking positions during decision-making or who have just left them.
“In general, incumbent presidents, prime ministers and foreign ministers are appointed to those positions. It may be more difficult now.” 15 minutes confirmed V.Ušackas.
Grybauskaitė’s term as president ended two years ago and he has held no official position since.
“Two years have passed since the end of her term, and Grybauskaitė has not been invited to occupy any senior position in the EU or any other international organization. She has advantages, but also a great disadvantage: she is seen as a person with whom she is it is difficult to live together, which tends to dictate and instruct, instead of listening and negotiating ”, also considered K. Girnius.
Photo by Lukas Balandus / 15min / Kęstutis Girnius
V.Ušackas diplomatically acknowledged: “There is truth. These posts are looking for people who are able to find compromises rather than split. But I think Grybauskaitė has already learned during his career. “
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