Belarusian expert: everything really turned out not according to the Moscow plan

Are the statements that Cichanouskaya is linked to official Moscow correct, or can it be said that the Kremlin has really extended its hand to the flight of a political career and who is ruining the narrative that Lukashenko is the guarantor of stability in the region for the West? In search of answers to these and other questions, ru.delfi.lt spoke with Dmitry Mickievich, journalist, analyst for the Belarus Security Blog project, and national security expert.

– The former Lithuanian intelligence chief claims that Cichanouskaya may be closely related to Russia, so the decision to bring her to Lithuania was hasty. How do you value that opinion?

– If people of such high level believe in such a lie and think that Putin is behind everything that is happening, it reveals his lack of competence and absolute lack of understanding of the situation. The question is, why do they need it? I have seen Cichanouskaya headquarters work, I have observed its activities, so all these conversations about Cichanouskaya’s relations with the Kremlin can be called fairy tales. Even if Moscow had such a plan, it can be safely said that things did not go as planned.

In my opinion, Russia has not even considered the question of interference. The main objective of the Kremlin is a weakened Belarus. The Kremlin does not want to give Lukashenko a reason to tell the West that the Russian Federation is making great efforts to remove him from power … Weak Belarus and Lukashenko weakened to the maximum feel comfortable for the Kremlin, so it is easy to negotiate with them because power is in Russian hands. Today, Lukashenko no longer has the support of the majority, his government depends on a gang of assassins.

– What’s happening on the streets of Minsk?

– On the third consecutive night there were clashes between protesters and power structures, and the protests continue, although on the night of August 11-12 they were no longer so massive, since the militia closed the entire center of the city – all the subway stations were closed. As soon as people try to gather together, he begins to brutally persecute them, but the arrests are carried out one by one. There are militia vehicles, trucks with internal soldiers and not only … There are a large number of forces pursuing protests in the capital. It is practically impossible to meet in the city center.

– On the eve, information emerged that special forces of the Russian Federation could be helping to quell the protests. Minsk residents themselves have noticed people wearing uniforms with recognizable insignia. This information is correct?

– I haven’t seen it yet. I don’t think there are Russian special forces there. It is necessary to understand this: relations between Belarus and Russia have never been so bad as now. In this situation, Lukashenko would never in his life trust Russian soldiers to quell protests, much less trust them in any domestic operation. Russia-Belarus relations have never been so bad.

– Despite the fact that Vladimir Putin congratulated Alexander Lukashenko on his electoral victory?

– Nothing surprising. These are just words, you need to find out what is behind them. I’m sure Putin welcomed it just so Lukashenko wouldn’t have a chance to complain to the West that Russia was starting protests in Belarus. The Belarusian authorities have gone to great lengths to create such an impression. Europe is trying to sell a version that Cichanouskaya is a Russian project and is supposedly coordinated by the Kremlin.

– Do I understand correctly: on the day of the elections, you yourself observed the work of the electoral headquarters of Sviatlan Cichanouskaya?

– Absolutely correct. From August 8 to 9, I was literally a stone’s throw from Sviatlan Cichanouskaya. Even then, the threat of arrest was very real and I was the happiest journalist in Belarus because I had the unique opportunity to observe how their headquarters functioned from the inside.

I come from Mozyr and Cichanouskaya studied at Mozyr Pedagogical University. Cichanouskaya is a very simple man who was never a politician and did not even think about it. Together with Siarhei Cichanouski (a former candidate in the presidential election who is currently in detention and in prison), he is raising two children, a situation is complicated. It is very difficult. He is a man for whom family and home have always been and will always be first, even though life has forced her to fight.

In other words, Cichanouskaya does not and will not claim the role of a great politician. When asked what he thought about the dismantling, he replied very sincerely that he did not know the meaning of the term … However, he won the presidential election and attracted a lot of supporters, and all because it was so real. She is outspoken and openly admits if she doesn’t know anything. Why turn to politics? It was a desperate move for the man for whom he was imprisoned.

– How do you assess the statements and hypotheses of Sviatlana Cichanouskaya – Kremlin candidate?

– I was in Cichanouskaya’s apartment in Minsk, a simple house for ordinary people. Balcony instruments, boxes. Not exclusive houses. Kremlin candidates do not live like this, or the Kremlin is completely impoverished.

– When did this narrative begin to develop?

– Let’s find out: in Belarus, the militia has a controlled Telegram channel called “Žoltyje slivy” – this is a public secret. There, they compromise people unfavorable to the government. There is generally poor quality compromising information, but the facts are still the facts. There is another Telegram channel, the Paparator, which is curated by the State Security Committee. The people on the committee work better, more subtly than the military.

This is the specificity of your work. In other words, there are enough controlled sources on the internet trying to compete in one way or another with the incredibly popular opposition channels, which have an audience of hundreds of thousands.

Many pro-government experts have been mobilized to this end. At one point, everyone, as if listening to the team, began to say that Cichanouskaya, Babarika, Cepkala were candidates for the Kremlin. It is important to understand that all this content is not for the internal market but for the external market. In Belarus itself, their opinion is “who cares little”, everyone has a good understanding of what they are looking for, where their feet are sprouting. It is first of all for foreign audiences, for the West, it is a message to Europe, the European Union and the United States, a desire to instill in them the idea that if you do not support Lukashenko, Belarus will be ruled by Putin. A very simple scheme: if it weren’t for Lukashenko, then Putin. It probably has nothing to do with reality.

The government has been very active in changing this narrative. To my knowledge, there was a meeting with Western diplomats who tried to present this scheme in a very picturesque way. As far as I know, it failed.

Everyone was very surprised by Lukashenko’s performance with Vagner’s Russian soldiers. Everything seems very poor. Of course, Russia will never forget that. We have heard Putin congratulate Lukashenko on his victory, but look at the speeches of other Russian politicians. Konstantin Zatulin, first deputy of the Commonwealth Affairs Committee of the State Duma, and Vladimir Zhirinovsky, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, have publicly criticized Lukashenko. I am sure that through them Vladimir Vladimirovich conveys wishes to his opponent Alexander Grigorjevic. Most know the old rule: what’s on Putin’s mind is in Žinirovsky’s language. Let’s see.

Now Putin has no interest in publicly and officially criticizing Lukashenko for not turning the latter into the West. It is clear that official Moscow does not want Lukashenko to give rise to a version that the protests were inspired by Russia.

– Why did Cichanouskaya go to Lithuania?

– He found himself in a very difficult situation. A video in which Cichanouskaya calls for an end to the protests was filmed under pressure. This is the usual practice of the Belarusian authorities: personal threats, threats to relatives, blackmail, intimidation … Human principles are foreign to them. We are seeing OMON robbing protesters in ambulances in Belarus, a violation of humanitarian rights. Almost a war crime is threatened by a trial in The Hague.
As for Lithuania and Vilnius, it is obvious that they did not choose for a long time. Choose those who were the first to extend a helping hand. Sviatlana Cichanouskaya seems to have seized the first opportunity. The Lithuanian Foreign Ministry has had no contact with Cichanouskaya until then.