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“We also maintained inter-institutional coordination, and yesterday we prepared proposals – and they have already been approved – for the application of asymmetric sanctions to the respective personalities of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia,” Makey said after speaking with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow.
He noted that these were people “who had actually tried diligently to interfere in the internal affairs of the Belarusian state, issued relevant and unacceptable political statements and made concrete proposals of financial support to opponents of the government.”
“This is completely unacceptable to us, we interpret it as interference in the internal affairs of our state,” said the head of Belarusian diplomacy. He did not name specific surnames.
He said that if other countries imposed sanctions on Belarus, Minsk would “also make appropriate decisions” in response.
V. Makejus hinted that sanctioned Belarusians from the Baltic states will also be banned from entering Russia.
“Believe me, it involved enough people from the three Baltic states. And since we as a Union have a common list with Russia, I think that should make them think somehow,” he said, adding that Minsk did not intend to publish this list of sanctions.
The Baltic states this week issued sanctions against Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenko and 29 other members of the regime, held responsible for electoral manipulation and violence against peaceful protesters. They have been banned from entering Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia for five years.
The European Union is also drawing up a list of sanctions. To the knowledge of the BNS, there are now 17 people on the coordinated list, but it does not include Mr. Lukashenko. EU sanctions would not only ban these people from entering the Community, but would also freeze their assets.
Lukashenko hopes to divert cargo transit to Russia
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on Tuesday that he hoped to move Belarusian cargo transit to Russia instead of the Baltic states. According to experts, some Lithuanian companies would suffer, but the implementation of the decision itself is unlikely. Furthermore, its implementation would take about a year.
Algis Latakas, Director General of the Klaipeda State Port Authority, says that Belarusian cargo is important for the Klaipeda port.
“Statistics show that cargo from neighboring Belarus accounts for about a third of the sea port’s total cargo volume. 2019 14.1 million tons were handled in the port of Klaipeda. Tons of Belarus-related cargo (30.5% of total cargo, total cargo 46.3 million tons).
And Belarusian cargo is important not only for port companies, but also for all other sectors, in addition to Belarusian freight transport, carriers, freight forwarders, shipping agents, ship supply providers, construction sites and terminal equipment supply companies receive income ”, explains the port manager.
However, at present, according to A. Latakas, the stowage works with Belarus are underway, there is no decrease in the flow of Belarusian cargo.
Martynas Burba, representative of the transport company LTG Cargo of the Lithuanian Railways (LTG), also assures that Belarusian cargo is important. But he also says the company is considering other markets as well.
“The company, in competition with other carriers, always tries to offer its clients the freight services that best suit their needs. However, decisions made for political reasons cannot be influenced.
Therefore, we have already taken steps to expand into other markets, increase the range of our services and establish a subsidiary in Poland. That is why we are looking for ways to be independent from the market of a particular country “, explains the company’s representative.
As for Belarus, according to him, cargo is transported from Belarus to the nearest port – Klaipeda. Therefore, this direction of cargo is also beneficial for Belarus itself.
Will the implementation of the sanctions take years?
Economist Marius Dubnikov affirms that Belarusian sanctions against Lithuania will not affect all the country’s inhabitants. Lithuanian railways and the port of Klaipeda may suffer the greatest losses. Therefore, individual Lithuanian companies would face difficulties, but certainly not the whole country.
Furthermore, the real possibilities of Belarus fulfilling its threats must be assessed. In fact, the way Belarus transports cargo through Lithuania is the most advantageous and cheapest from an economic point of view. After all, they have not chosen it for nothing.
If Belarus opted for other cargo routes, it would generate additional costs that would reduce revenues and sink the economy, which is not in the best condition. Therefore, with this decision, the President of Belarus would not harm Lithuania, but the people of her country, ”says the economist.
According to him, this issue is more political than economic.
“If Belarus imposes sanctions on Lithuania, it will be more for themselves than for us. They will face greater economic losses,” says M. Dubnikov.
According to the economist, attention must still be paid to the time within which Belarus could implement its threats. You really need a lot.
“Cargo volumes, in tons large enough. Therefore, it is impossible to quickly redirect cargo from the whole country in another direction. Coordination with both carriers and stevedoring companies is necessary. They must be prepared to accept new loads. .
The stevedoring companies of all countries are competing with each other, but they are certainly not sitting around waiting for Belarus to finally deliver the cargo to them. Therefore, there may not even be the ability to move the load in the other direction. Similar negotiations with another country can take a year or more ”, explains the economist.
According to Dubnikov, the threats from Belarus are more intended to intimidate and appear against the people of their country.
“It was even said that a third of Lithuania’s budget depends on the Belarusian cargo. However, such a statement is complete nonsense and has nothing to do with the real situation,” says the economist.
M. Dubnikov also offers to recall the year 2014, when Russia, which was a more important trading partner, announced sanctions for Lithuania.
“Lithuanian trade representatives solved the problem by reorienting the western market. Yes, Lithuania only won, because the western market is more stable than Russia’s. So this time I also think we should deal with sanctions,” explains the economist.
Belarusian cargo accounts for up to 1 percent. Lithuania GDP
Tadas Povilauskas, chief economist at SEB Bank, says the risk of Lithuania losing Belarusian cargo has existed for several years.
“Before it was foreseeable that Russia could subsidize the diversion of Belarusian cargo for political reasons. Although such a decision would be financially futile for Russia itself.
Nor is it economically beneficial for Belarus to abandon economic cooperation with Lithuania. More than 10 thousand. Belarusians work in Lithuanian freight transport companies, truck drivers. This would result in these individuals losing their jobs once the sanctions go into effect. Of course, Lithuania would have to look for new employees, but if Belarusians lose their jobs, they will suffer more, ”says the economist.
T. Povilauskas also notes that the declaration of the President of Belarus that his cargo represents 30%. The Lithuanian budget is bad. In fact, the Belarusian cargo accounts for less than 1 percent. Lithuanian budget.
According to Luminor Chief Economist Sigismund Maurice, the total export of Lithuanian transport services to Belarus (including road transport) in 2019 amounted to 380 million. EUR, that is, about 0.8 percent. gross domestic product.
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