Belarus and geopolitics: how and where do officer Minsk and his protesters see it?

On Friday, the director of the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI), doc. Dr. Margarita Šešelgytė and VU TSMPI professor, prof. Dr. Dovilė Jakniūnaitė.

They were joined by Maxim Milta, a Belarusian RESC associate analyst, who closely watched thousands of protests against rigged elections and militia violence in Belarus over several weeks.

In fact, Belarus is close to Russia, but Lukashenko’s leadership has tried to maneuver between East and West. Although Minsk is completely dependent on Moscow for oil and gas supplies, in recent years the regime has invited high-ranking guests from the West, with even a shipment of American oil arriving in Klaipeda this year.

It is true that the European Union has largely frozen relations with Belarus in the wake of protests that are brutally suppressed and that some opposition activists are trapped, and Lukashenko himself, who has enthusiastically fallen into the arms of Russia, it should be added to the sanctions list soon.

The situation is unstable and stable

The situation at the moment is paralyzed: protests continue, students and women, retirees and workers take to the streets, and former presidential candidate Sviatlana Cichanouskaja, who went to Vilnius after the demonstrations began, continues to urge people to lift the head.

But the Lukashenko regime has not given up; on the contrary, the government appears to have succeeded in luring several activists into a supposedly meaningful debate on possible constitutional reform.

“We have been talking about this (Belarus, ed.) Since August, but the balance is not swinging, so we are talking about the same thing,” admitted M. Šešelgytė, who also asked directly if “what has been happening since August is geopolitics, or not “.

“It just came to us then. People are fed up with the dictator’s rule, fed up with years of not paying attention to their opinions and wishes to change something. People are asking for freedom: free elections, freedom of expression.

We envision geopolitics as an important struggle: between Russia and the West, between Russia and the United States, between Russia and the European Union. We don’t see that, so what is the geopolitics here? ”M.Šešelgytė considered.

The analyst emphasized that we don’t really see a fierce fight against Russia in Belarus: the economic ties are “huge” in trade, investment and energy. Of course, there is also the military zone.

“NATO sees these countries as one. Finally, the social element is also important. Lukashenko told Putin that the nations were fraternal and did not lie too much; it is clear that Belarusian society is different and not all are so positive about Russia, but in this fight they have chosen not to divide society.

Russia is not an enemy and the West is not a friend, a message from the protests. EU flags were flown but called for withdrawal. The EU has offered financial support, which it has rejected. Therefore, it can be concluded that this is not a short-term geopolitical struggle, ”said M.Šešelgytė.

Everything else is a longer period. After all, free elections, freedom of expression and human rights are fundamental values ​​of liberal democracy that can be built against autocracy and so-called “controlled democracy.”

M.Šešelgytė: Russia is not an enemy and the West is not a friend, such is the message of the protests. The EU flags were raised, but their withdrawal was called for. The EU has offered financial support, which it has rejected.

“When these values ​​meet, the fight eventually turns into a geopolitical confrontation. We see that Putin is lagging behind, and this may be due to the fact that there is no good scenario for Putin.

After all, if you strongly support Lukashenko, then society, despite your great kindness, will turn away. But if you trust the legitimate expectations of the people, you can turn against Russia itself. It’s better to wait, maybe everything will calm down and I don’t have to make that decision, “said M. Šešelgytė.

Neither the East nor the West want to repress

For his part, D. Jakniūnaitė spoke about the “apolitical geopolitical protest”, which does not seem to be related to long-term value options, adding that it is not possible to compare the Maidan demonstrations in Ukraine with the events in Belarus.

“However, the protest here and now is also geopolitical. Whatever the people there tell us, it is inevitably a geopolitics for us: we are used to thinking that the people of Belarus choose who to travel with on the road. That it is impossible sit in the middle.

We put accents on the choice. So it is likely that we can be very happy, but it is equally likely that we are very disappointed, it is necessary to take this into account ”, said the professor.

D.Jakniūnaitė also warned that the United States is not participating in the search for a way out of the crisis in Belarus: elections are taking place there, and since the Americans are busy, we basically need to talk about the role of the EU.

“We have to admit that most EU countries don’t care much about Belarus. Clearly, many would say that protesters need to be heard, but they don’t care anyway. In fact, many EU leaders do they have been glad so far that Belarus cannot take care of them.

D.Jakniūnaitė: The EU does not want to talk about geopolitics. When someone says that the EU cannot do anything, it is important to realize that the EU does not want and cannot have influence in a country where Europe has not been in 30 years.

After all, there was a stable, there were no conflicts, everything was planned. What is wrong with it, for example, when viewed from southern Europe? And now the problems have started to arise, so decisions have to be made, “said the expert.

According to D. Jakniūnaitė, the options mean interference, but the intervention strategy is also complicated, because the EU “cannot afford to be active”: it is impossible to exaggerate and give A. Lukashenko a trump card to explain that the Europeans are interfering in our affairs.

“The European Union cannot lobby for Russia either. An important element: memories from Ukraine. We agree that the situations are different, but then the protests were very actively supported and then the occupation of Crimea took place and the conflict began. In eastern Ukraine, you don’t want to have that.

This means that the EU does not want to talk about geopolitics. When someone says that the EU cannot do anything, it is important to realize that the EU does not want and cannot have influence in a country where Europe has not been for 30 years ”, commented D. Jakniūnaitė.

As for Russia, it is perceived in Moscow that the Kremlin will pull something out of the situation in its favor in any case. Lukashenko is said to be “toxic” and many Russian officials are now angry.

“However, geopolitics is very important for Russia in this case. For Russia, any protest is a component of liberalization, so the inevitable final conclusion is that for external actors, the crisis is really related to geopolitics” said D. Jakniūnaitė.

What can we offer

Milla, as mentioned, after seeing the protests in Minsk and other Belarusian cities up close, admitted that he had seen neither the EU nor the Russian flags during his visit to the neighboring country.

“However, looking at the reasons for the historic mobilization shouldn’t just look at 2020 and the coronavirus pandemic, which Lukashenko ignored.

Recall the discussions on the integration of Russia and Belarus in December 2019. The initial mobilization in independent media and social networks took place even then. The shift toward geopolitical self-determination was fueled by Lukashenko’s own negotiations with Russia.

Even non-geopolitical geopolitics was driven by a geopolitical reaction to the geopolitical self-determination of the regime. “The interaction between the Lukashenko regime and the Kremlin exists as long as Lukashenko himself exists, but those negotiations were, in my opinion, quite an important plot,” said M. Milta.

M. Milta: What can the West offer Belarus? Complimentary games that we don’t want to offend the Kremlin are no longer acceptable.

According to the Belarusian, data on the worldview of the Belarusian people is lacking, but a study has shown that sympathy for the European Union has been steadily increasing since 2014: “I am speaking here in a broad sense: transparent elections, free information.”

“I don’t think we can reasonably say that there are more pro-Russian people in Belarus than those who are sympathetic to the values ​​of liberal democracy. And now there is scientifically proven data,” added M. Milta.

He believes that the EU has for too long succumbed to the narrative spread by Minsk that Lukashenko is a convenient partner for stability.

“Comfort was also caused by a certain fatigue due to Ukraine. Therefore, it was supported the status quo With regard to Belarus.

What can we expect in terms of the Kremlin’s role? This same week, Belarusian state television announced the formation of new parties, parties that are not lacking in expressions of Nazi and chauvinism, as well as hateful personalities who will actively advocate for closer ties with Russia.

The Kremlin will benefit most from this parliamentary model of democracy, as it will be able to choose from a set of future political forces that will represent Russia’s interests.

The question is: what can the West offer Belarus? Courtesy games, which we don’t want to offend the Kremlin, are no longer acceptable, “said Milta.