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As the European Union considers additional sanctions against the Lukashenko regime and points the finger at Russia for this demonstrable support for the former leader of the Soviet collective economy, the Kremlin sees an opportunity to link Belarus in its orbit with even stronger ties.
“In both Europe and the United States, there is a growing assumption that what happened could not be led by Belarus alone, and that Russia also had a role to play here,” said Oksana Antonenko, director of Control Risks, an organization with based in London. consulting company. “All of this may overshadow the cautiously positive attitude that we have witnessed recently in both Washington and Moscow.”
The impasse came before the first presidential meeting between Putin and Joe Biden scheduled for June 16 in Geneva, during which they should discuss the tense situation due to the conflict in Ukraine, strategic weapons and cyberattacks.
Russia accuses the West of undermining its security by provoking a pro-democracy “color” revolution in Belarus, which is expanding the organization of the EU and the Atlantic Treaty, under a similar scenario of unrest in Georgia and Ukraine.
Putin supported Lukashenko’s brutal crackdown on protests over last year’s disputed presidential elections, which prompted the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States to impose sanctions on Belarus. Russia also agreed to provide loans of 1.5 billion. dollars and contracts signed for the supply of oil and gas for this year.
However, the Kremlin is trying to ease the financial burden designed to help sustain an inefficient, largely state-controlled economy. Subsidies in the energy sector, which in 2006 amounted to 19 percent. Belarus’ gross domestic product (GDP) fell to less than one percent of GDP last year.
Although Russia is the largest investor in Belarus and its largest trading partner, Lukashenko has resisted Moscow in recent years to push for deeper integration under the Union Treaty, fearing that the country would take over its neighbor. more powerful.
Mr Lukashenko, who has led the country since 1994, knows very well how to divide the EU and Russia from each other, in the hope of preserving their independence.
However, on May 23. The staged intervention on Ryanair’s flight from Greece to Lithuania angered the EU and left it little room for maneuver. The Belarusian security forces removed journalist Raman Pratasevich and his friend, a Russian national, from the plane and detained them both. The two face up to 15 years in prison on charges of mass disturbances.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Thursday that the EU was ready to start a “long-lasting and large-scale spiral of sanctions” by banning Belarusian state airlines from using its airspace and urging European carriers to avoid flights over Belarus.
One of the targets may be the Belarusian potassium carbonate (potassium) industry, the most important source of foreign exchange.
Belarus, facing mounting pressure from the West, expects Russia’s support, the country’s Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko told his Russian counterpart Mikhail Mishustin during talks in Minsk on Thursday.
‘TO. The tricks that Lukashenko has used so far to overthrow Russia against other states are now becoming minimally effective, ”said Andrei Kortunov, head of Russia’s Council on International Affairs.
“But he will go to Russia more often to ask for money,” he said.
The sanctions on Belarus “will have some effect” and on Russia, in particular because of the ties between the two companies, said Ryhor Astapenia, director of Chatham House, a London-based think tank, Belarus Initiative.
Putin feels trapped with Lukashenko because “the Kremlin has no credible alternatives,” said Artyom Shraibman, an expert at the Carnegie Center in Moscow.
“Russia might be interested and would like Lukashenko to gradually relinquish his power,” Shraibman said. “But it is not clear how it could contribute to that.”
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